CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Hold on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 From Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, wxsniss said: Thanks for all the comments everyone. Lurking > posting due to work but good stuff as always. For those learning about being in good "cross hairs"... (Mets correct or add anything) Nice sounding for KBOS off 18z NAM. 1) Dendritic growth zone (DGZ, labeled in blue circle), assuming -10˚C to -20˚C (purple lines), the temperature range at which optimal crystal growth occurs. 2) Within the DGZ, the green line (dewpoint) and red line (temperature) overlap, indicated a saturated column within the DGZ. 3) OMEGA bars on the left indicate upward vertical motion (UVV). 4) The area of maximum UVV (yellow box) colocalizes with the saturated area within the DGZ, parameters for heavy snow with good snow growth. That pretty much covers it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 You can add that the nice slant back to the left above the DGZ (would be better to have more) add a little oomph to lift the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 The more I look at this I lean toward a low track closer to the coast... The primary boundary is aligning parallel to the upper M/A NE coasts within 50 naut miles an is nearly stationary ... that the last ob still initialized it as cold front. - for one, it is nearly parallel to a mid level wind field that is veering aloft as we type and will continue to do so overnight as this trough tightens up and tips the mid llv flow more S-N offshore. - there are modest pressure rises taking place east of the boundary ... that's not really sending vibes across like it's marching out to sea exactly. The best thermal gradient exists in the 850 mb level ..what's new, but as the q-v forcing rips overhead and that level closes off and deepens quickly as a result, I suspect models such as the NAM are too far E with the surface low... Seems the model is too vertically tilted owing to putting too much emphasis on the vestigial primary boundary to track its surface reflection. Maybe.. This system's deep layer structure/evolution would provide for banded heavier QPF embedded in the general zygote CCB head, but it would matter if the system were better vertically integrated because of feed-back processes. Not that we need those exactly to get what people are after. You almost don't want this system to be too strong too soon, because it could be too fast and not enough time for instability parameters to gain traction farther west. You end up with an intense nucleus that way... But that's speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Do you think we rain at all on the Cape Scott even though the major models don't show any rainfall? It may rain briefly..I could see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Nice rpm for sure. the crush band is wavering on diff guidance for the jacks but this will be special regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: James may have to chase to Falmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 It is game over here for the 2nd year in a row. I don't want to hear any complaints about drifting or that you got 8 inches instead of 14.Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 A few questions... 1) scooter caution flags? If any? 2) What is causing modeling to go nuts with this over the last 2 days? 3) this is a quick mover...how can it drop this much in under 12 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: You can add that the nice slant back to the left above the DGZ (would be better to have more) add a little oomph to lift the air. i.e., steeper lapse rates / more instability? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 15 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Do you think we rain at all on the Cape Scott even though the major models don't show any rainfall? Who cares if you rain for an hour or two, it's awesome to watch rain get heavier and heavier as cat paws mix in and then kaboom! Whiteout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: A few questions... 1) scooter caution flags? If any? 2) What is causing modeling to go nuts with this over the last 2 days? 3) this is a quick mover...how can it drop this much in under 12 hours? 1. Subsidence outside of the f-gen bands, especially north of the main band. Lift above the DGZ, again north of the main band. 2. Fast moving shortwave was "seen" late by modeling. Only onshore for the last 48ish or so hours. 3. $64,000 question. Forcing is strong, rates will be excellent in good banding, but there is an upper limit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Thanks Chris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: A few questions... 1) scooter caution flags? If any? 2) What is causing modeling to go nuts with this over the last 2 days? 3) this is a quick mover...how can it drop this much in under 12 hours? 1) Yes...well just being nitpicky. Obviously how far west is the deformation band? To the NW of it will be a virtual tailpipe sucking with all that vertical motion within the band. Remember what goes up, must come down. Also, does the band consolidate further east? Where? Will it be as strong? Progressive? What about coastal front/OES? I do worry there may be some subby zones in between the bands..but tough to say. Folks in BOS may be disappointed for awhile and then absolute go ape sh*t after noon. 2) First I think we go back to this recent low. It's not the powerhouse once modeled on the GFS. It is weak and that helps keep the baroclinic zone close to the coast. The parent s/w also seems to be modeled stronger which is helping really force and dynamically squeeze out all the PWAT we have. Heavy precip isn't related to intense low....you can have strong mid level forcing aid in this, and we will have this in the morning. 3) There is the potential for 3-4"+/hr snows. It won't take long to drop impressive amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, wxsniss said: i.e., steeper lapse rates / more instability? Yep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That RI snow hole worries me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 More eye candy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: That RI snow hole worries me Glad we don't live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: That RI snow hole worries me The 8-10" snow hole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Don't worry about the RI snow hole, it just is. It'll orient more over the bay though, especially as the OES gets going. I just hope that this is a beastly enough storm that dry is still wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 TauntonBlizzard is rattled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: The 8-10" snow hole? Snowhole nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 hour ago, dendrite said: I had Mar 05 and although it was cool to experience it still made me frustrated when trying to measure. To each his own. Sucks having to go measure an area to avg with sticking a drift. 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I'm so amped up. Treehouse and Trillium drinking like Halloween candy.. let's do this Go share a growler with JC-CT so he can man up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Nice rpm for sure. the crush band is wavering on diff guidance for the jacks but this will be special regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 True don't listen to me. I've never drank beer from a jug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Pool Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: That RI snow hole worries me Me too...always seems to be an issue. Still think central and southern RI gets a good shot though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 always with the RI snow hole, why is that? the Bay screwing things up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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