ROOSTA Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: That's why western guys especially in orographically to inflow prone areas jumped too early. ORH hills to TOL to mpm will jack with a secondary jack over interior SE MA and most of NE MA. Going Climo is always a safe bet. Red-flag I'm noticing as 11th hour approaches is the diverge between NAM (usually higher QPF) is much lower than the GFS. Still much to be resolved IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: Yeah makes sense. I was just looking at that 4km NAM run and it seems to do it over western Mass. The band shoots out ahead of the system and then slows and sort of almost pivots but then picks up steam moving East again. Then almost does it again over Eastern Mass. Yeah and both make sense to me...but I would like to see the other runs do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Normally NAM is too far west in the end and the EURO dumps on me so I am satisfied with 20" the EURO shows. NAM is definitely stronger than 6z. You really think 20" is going to drop on Harwich? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 NAM looks a little skimpier ... I don't like that the Euro went E at 00z like that, but am willing to stay... Thing is, this could all still miss just east - probably impossible to penetrate minds with that thought at this stage of the game (understood) ... but, this thing is the ultimate needle threader. It has to be pretty well handled in terms of organization rate of blossoming ...that late bloomers need to. Suppose the NAM is skimpier at 18 z again, then halves the totals on the 00z ...and the Euro ticked east at 12 z this morning... Then, it misses just east and everyone thinks it was a bust and ...heh, sorry - the writing would have been on the wall in such a modeling evolution. Just trying to tame things with some realism that there are negating possibilities still on the table. Not that anyone doesn't know that - just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 That's a spread-the-love run of the 3km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 06z RGEM was not very good up this way at all, We will see what it does at 12z, But i would still be hesitant with it as it has puked on itself a few times like i bet some of the Pats players did this morning. RGEM = Gronk Can come up big, but can also be wretching outside the party bus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: NAM looks a little skimpier ... I don't like that the Euro went E at 00z like that, but am willing to stay... Thing is, this could all still miss just east - probably impossible to penetrate minds with that thought at this stage of the game (understood) ... but, this thing is the ultimate needle threader. It has to be pretty well handled in terms of organization rate of blossoming ...that late bloomers need to. Suppose the NAM is skimpier at 18 z again, then halves the totals on the 00z ...and the Euro ticked east at 12 z this morning... Then, it misses just east and everyone thinks it was a bust and ...heh, sorry - the writing would have been on the wall in such a modeling evolution. Just trying to tame things with some realism that there are negating possibilities still on the table. Not that anyone doesn't know that - just sayin'. We are talking about 24 hours until go-time. I have a hard time seeing this whiff at this stage. Maybe 8-12 turns into 4-8, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: NAM looks a little skimpier ... I don't like that the Euro went E at 00z like that, but am willing to stay... Thing is, this could all still miss just east - probably impossible to penetrate minds with that thought at this stage of the game (understood) ... but, this thing is the ultimate needle threader. It has to be pretty well handled in terms of organization rate of blossoming ...that late bloomers need to. Suppose the NAM is skimpier at 18 z again, then halves the totals on the 00z ...and the Euro ticked east at 12 z this morning... Then, it misses just east and everyone thinks it was a bust and ...heh, sorry - the writing would have been on the wall in such a modeling evolution. Just trying to tame things with some realism that there are negating possibilities still on the table. Not that anyone doesn't know that - just sayin'. Turn your monitor right side up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 24 hrs and this is going to miss east? yikes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Turn your monitor right side up Yeah...I mean, look at the current radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: You really think 20" is going to drop on Harwich? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: We are talking about 24 hours until go-time. I have a hard time seeing this whiff at this stage. Maybe 8-12 turns into 4-8, sure. On the idea of a whiff you could pull out the "aint happening James" line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Normally NAM is too far west in the end and the EURO dumps on me so I am satisfied with 20" the EURO shows. NAM is definitely stronger than 6z. 20"?!? At what ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: On the idea of a whiff you could pull out the "aint happening James" line. Neither is 20" on cape cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 what is sitting and rotating just off the NC coast? Is that the southern stream low that the energy over the lower Midwest is going to inject into? you can see a clear rotation off NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: what is sitting and rotating just off the NC coast? Is that the southern stream low that the energy over the lower Midwest is going to inject into? you can see a clear rotation off NC. Sit and Spin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: what is sitting and rotating just off the NC coast? Is that the southern stream low that the energy over the lower Midwest is going to inject into? you can see a clear rotation off NC. I think it actually helps keep our storm from scooting east by blocking the flow a bit, at least initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Bout what time does RGEM come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I think it actually helps keep our storm from scooting east by blocking the flow a bit, at least initially. I mean I wish I knew the synoptic significance of it. But it seems like it would slow the front at the southern end, and that it would feed inflow when the Midwestern energy joins the party? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, db306 said: Bout what time does RGEM come out? Should get first maps in 10-15 minutes, good maps in about 20-25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I think it actually helps keep our storm from scooting east by blocking the flow a bit, at least initially. I think your right, Noticed it helped back the heights some what off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, SR Airglow said: Should get first maps in 10-15 minutes, good maps in about 20-25. TY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, SR Airglow said: Should get first maps in 10-15 minutes, good maps in about 20-25. whats your forecast for CT? EDIT: nevermind i saw it on twitter, exactly the same as mine and as others are thinking for the state....6-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 6-10 seems reasonable for the cape. 20" is just wishcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 12z RGEM is out to hr 12, Early on it looks like the s/w over virginia may be a tic NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I know its probably been said, but this thing really has to go to town to get the amounts the NAM spit out...looks like we'll be seeing stars Thursday night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: what is sitting and rotating just off the NC coast? Is that the southern stream low that the energy over the lower Midwest is going to inject into? you can see a clear rotation off NC. Wave that developed along the front. That passes well SE of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 12z RGEM is out to hr 12, Early on it looks like the s/w over virginia may be a tic NW Out to 24 on ptype map, differences are pretty negligible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Out to 24 on ptype map, differences are pretty negligible Toggle it look to the far NW of the field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Ever so slightly west of 6z. Basically the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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