Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 WINDEX technique was developed originally based upon NGM (now defunct) FRH(FOUS) grid parameters: T1 TT5 TR1: Relative Humidity Lifted Index: Using these numbers off the NAM(FRH/FOUS) ...may or may not provide the equivalent technique. But using these values above ...You calculate the difference between the T1 and the T5; if it is over 10, and especially over 15, you then look at the lifted index.. if it rises significantly after the proposed event, and the RH at R1 is over 50%, you will have instability squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 my 76 year old father always talks about Alberta Clippers from the past, says they were real storms back then. Not like these poop clippers we get now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Through 21Z Euro is owning the other models on position of snow axis over the upper Midwest. Only model that has snow well into Illinois and over ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 This is my first snowfall map and likely only map for this storm. I expect the storm to strengthen a little faster than currently modeled and we could see dynamics of the storm play a large role in the snowfall output so therefore thunderstorms could become a part of the precipitation form and we can get thunder snows. Also the ocean is very warm still to our south east of NJ and south of the South Shore of New England and Long Island, NY, with a shortwave with a negatively tilted trough fireworks will become the norm with this storm and produce a good amount of snow for a while tomorrow afternoon through the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 That's a 21 salute James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Whineminster said: my 76 year old father always talks about Alberta Clippers from the past, says they were real storms back then. Not like these poop clippers we get now. I've been seeing references to big time clippers the past couple days...I'm not sure where they are coming from. Clippers rarely produce anything above advisory snowfall...if you get a nice little popper off NJ coast, then yeah, you can get a low end warning event. 1/21/11 was a good example of this and probably 2/18/14. The bigger miller B storms are usually not Alberta clippers...maybe Manitoba Maulers (ala Jan 2005 and Feb '78) or the ol' panhandle hook storms that redevelop once they are in the OH Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Don't judge me until it passes, we can only wait until then Jerry. The models are intensifying the surface low sooner and sooner, what has the trend been as of late with developing coastal storms? The trend has been to intensify them as they hit the ocean waters, this will track no differently. The Great Lakes are expecting 5" of snow, we could easily see 10" in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: That's a 21 salute James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Congrats on the mid level clouds , if we get a windex squall with steep lapse rates Wed afternoon I would bow to Hayden. You never back anything up with facts like you used to, just spout out stuff. I barely have time to. Everything is easily accessed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 These clippers more times then not end up developing a tad to late for most of us but there have been several that have hammered DE Maine and the Maritime's in the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 That shortwave is already quite pronounced on water vapor imagery. It wouldn't take much of a negative tilt to the trough axis to get the coastal redevelopment going a tad sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 James has no love for Ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Just now, CTWeatherFreak said: James has no love for Ct. Clipper redevelops too late for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Clipper redevelops too late for your area. If latest trends continue I will upgrade your area to 2-4", I will have to see earlier development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, CTWeatherFreak said: James has no love for Ct. I would actually bet on your area having more snow because the models have been latching onto a sooner and earlier developing coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Clipper redevelops too late for your area. Got a map or model that shows that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I would actually bet on your area having more snow because the models have been latching onto a sooner and earlier developing coastal low. So how bout putting us into at least the medium blue.... We feel left out of the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 That is an interesting low level jet that develops with the surface low. If we can get return flow into the region, then we could be talking heavier amounts of snow. I really think we are underestimating this coastal redevelopment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, CTWeatherFreak said: Got a map or model that shows that? Short range and NAM models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I would actually bet on your area having more snow because the models have been latching onto a sooner and earlier developing coastal low. Careful what you wish for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 I don't know why the NWS didn't issue WWA for the Cape and Islands, our temps during the bulk of the heavier snows will be below freezing and the models don't go above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Careful what you wish for Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I don't know why the NWS didn't issue WWA for the Cape and Islands, our temps during the bulk of the heavier snows will be below freezing and the models don't go above freezing. I guess you aren't looking at the models correctly then...because every single model has your area going above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 No ... no it's a really good call James; you just forgot that final division by 2 in your mathematics - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Lol, of course ground zero is CC, MA USA. Youre the best Jimmy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: No ... no it's a really good call James; you just forgot that final division by 2 in your mathematics - LOL, sorry the boundary layer might be above freezing, but at 925mb its below freezing, it wouldn't take much dynamic cooling to get us to snow in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Lol, of course ground zero is CC, MA USA. Youre the best Jimmy. Ground zero is Eastern MA not just me on CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Why? see below 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I guess you aren't looking at the models correctly then...because every single model has your area going above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I barely have time to. Everything is easily accessed. lol says the dude with 200K posts, lol ya killin me here Potshot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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