dendrite Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 It doesn't really mean squat, but the MEX is dual 8's up here. You don't see that everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The more important part of the high to me is how deep it is in the atmosphere...it literally goes well through the mid-levels. Yeah that too obviously. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah that too obviously. Pretty impressive. The GFS has a closed contour up to H5 at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: In what way? Seemed fine to me. There is no linear response to every mb increase in HP. It depends on the environment around it...cold does not mean stronger HP all the time, the placement of the high, and the behavior of the high as the storm progresses. Oh I was taking it to mean if the HP was stronger it would be more favorable and force it south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Oh I was taking it to mean if the HP was stronger it would be more favorable and force it south Mid levels drive the tracks...not srfc HP. If HP was stronger, that would mean some sort of confluence is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: It doesn't really mean squat, but the MEX is dual 8's up here. You don't see that everyday. Even has 8 and 4 down at MHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, wx2fish said: Even has 8 and 4 down at MHT 0/4 at BTV and 0/1 at ALB. Must be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 35 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Great run for NNE. Jay Peak to Sugarloaf mauler. I'm actually unimpressed by this. Conservative at best. There would be widespread 20"+ amounts if that verified. Understandably, that is with 10:1 ratios... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Will, Man must be 800 thats warm in your old hood because 850 925 are cold. Euro spitting out 1.2 freezing rain up Jeffs way too. I have to agree with you on this progging colder if all remains equal for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Even has 8 and 4 down at MHT 8 and 4 at ORE and 8 and 2 at FIT. 6 and 2 at ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 9 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Even has 8 and 4 down at MHT what does that mean? speaking hypothetically of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That Feb 2014 event wasn't memorable for me, obviously...I didn't remember it lol Very memorable, 3 per rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, SJonesWX said: what does that mean? speaking hypothetically of course 8 inches first 12 hr period and 4 the 2nd, congrats Dendrite with 2 eight balls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: what does that mean? speaking hypothetically of course 8 and 4". Mos spits out different snow catoegies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Very memorable, 3 per rates Not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 The 8 category is technically 8"+...it could mean 8" or it could mean 13"...you don't really know. It's just the highest category they have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 I can't close my blinds more than they already are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not here. Really? I thought you had 10" reading Coop 2014-02-13 33 11 22.0 -6.7 43 0 1.08 9.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 8 inches first 12 hr period and 4 the 2nd, congrats Dendrite with 2 eight balls 1 minute ago, wx2fish said: 8 and 4". Mos spits out different snow catoegies thanks guys, i actually just found it on NOAA website right after you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The 8 category is technically 8"+...it could mean 8" or it could mean 13"...you don't really know. It's just the highest category they have. yea my bad 24 hrs MEX Snow Fall Amount Categories 0 no snow or a trace expected 1 > a trace to < 2 inches 2 2 to < 4 inches 4 4 to < 6 inches 6 6 to < 8 inches 8 >= 8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 hour ago, leo1000 said: Lucky, St. John's Newfoundland looks like after their through his monster blizzard this weekend another snowstorm next week. They got hit on Monday night too with 30 plus centimetres of snow. What I would give for a monster blizzard right now. Its because i dont complain as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: 0/4 at BTV and 0/1 at ALB. Must be right. That's completely right. That's the best way to see what models are the most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Well, it must have been a quick burst....10" isn't memorable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 I like that the 500 mb is perhaps a couple dm deeper as it nears our latitude on this run. that's been a concern as some of us have discussed, the earlier maturation rate on this whole thing. Keeping some semblance of deepening "AS" it approaches is better for a myriad of reasons. The surface evolution actually runs along and ideal course for the huge possible snow (climo) - if that's ur bag ... Unfortunately, it doesn't ..as much. The wah wah waaah of this run is that the smooth arcing curvilinear 0 C 850 mb isotherm is NW of 80 or 90% of the SNE sub-forum usership. Couple caveats: -- clown maps useless... those things (as far as I've been made aware) are based on raw model output and don't say anything about trend or special studies... They are also based on fixed thermal fields/depths and don't take into consideration dynamically modulating(able) events. Which this is a smoking gun for... -- one other aspect that's creeping in is that this is become more progressive with each passing run... There are still models out there that linger this...but this run really shows how the "kicker" comes in from the west ... That whole aspect of this is equally in morphology. Related too...it's still an overall very anomalous look. The ridge in the west is almost non-existent on this run as that kicker (as said...) races toward the MV while this thing is still trying to max out and lift immediately astride the M/A and NE coasts. That's not usually how these things operate.. I don't know...there's just enough unusual-ness about all this ,working in tandem with known error prone biases (particularly with modulating indexes...), for me to wonder if all this has been over analyzing material that doesn't have much hope of verifying to begin with. But on the flip side... every single ensemble member has this thing - so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 We take, we wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I like that the 500 mb is perhaps a couple dm deeper as it nears our latitude on this run. that's been a concern as some of us have discussed, the earlier maturation rate on this whole thing. Keeping some semblance of deepening "AS" it approaches is better for a myriad of reasons. It actually runs along and ideal course for the most possible snow - if that's ur bag ... Unfortunately, it doesn't wah wah wah of this run is that the smooth arcing curvilinear 0 C 850 mb isotherm is NW of 80 or 90% of the SNE sub-forum usership. Couple caveats: -- clown maps useless... those things (as far as I've been made aware) are based on raw model output and don't say anything about trend and special studies... They are also based on fixed thermal fields/depths and don't take into consideration dynamically modulating(able) events. Which this is a smoking gun for... -- one other aspect that's creeping in is that this is become more progressive with each passing run... There are still models out there that linger this...but this run really shows how the "kicker" comes in from the west ... That whole aspect of this is equally in morphology. Related too...it's still an overall very anomalous look. The ridge in the west is almost non-existent on this run as that kicker (as said...) races toward the MV while this thing is still trying to max out and lift immediately astride the M/A and NE coasts. That's not usually how these things operate.. I don't know...there's just enough unusual-ness about all this ,working in tandem with known error prone biases (particularly with modulating indexes...), for me to wonder if all this has been over analyzing material that doesn't have much hope of verifying to begin with. But on the flip side... every single ensemble member has this thing - so... I could see this becoming a quicker hitter if the whole thing is being forced east by both the westward placement of the block and the kicker upstream...we sort of swing the thing negative up the coast and then she's gone 18 hours later. There's probably like 10 moving parts the models have to figure out, and as we know, they probably don't have them figured out at this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, it must have been a quick burst....10" isn't memorable to me. Lol of course not you spoiled batch. Odds of a 10 inch snowfall are pretty low . Lol Go big or go home, just read the thread your attitude was immensely different that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol of course not you spoiled batch. Odds of a 10 inch snowfall are pretty low . Lol Go big or go home, just read the thread your attitude was immensely different that day. 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol of course not you spoiled batch. Odds of a 10 inch snowfall are pretty low . Lol Go big or go home, just read the thread your attitude was immensely different that day. I laughed too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 I like the visualization on ventusky.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, bobbutts said: I like the visualization on ventusky.com cool, must have got it from Earth null https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/01/23/1800Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-71.90,45.39,978 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.