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Jan 6-8 Winter Storm Observations


Wow

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Made the drive from Boone to Raleigh. Planning on getting aerial footage in Raleigh and working my way back towards boone the next few days via Chapel Hill, Greensboro, then down to Charlotte.

Was 33 degrees from Winston Salem all the way to Chapel Hill where I hit rain/snow mix and instantly jumped to 36 degrees. Still an 80/20 rain/snow mix just south of Downtown.


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FXUS62 KGSP 070331
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1031 PM EST Fri Jan 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will lift out of the Northern Gulf of Mexico
tonight bringing widespread winter precipitation to the region. As the
low moves offshore, a strong arctic surface high will overspread the
region late Saturday and persist into early next week, bringing very
cold air into the region. Another cold front is expected to approach
the Carolinas by the middle of next week, increasing rain chances
once again.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1015 PM, the snow line continues to ooze south this evening,
with a transition to -SN recently having occurred along the I-85
corridor from Greenville to Charlotte. Based upon the latest radar
trends, it appears that much of the area has a solid 3-6 hours of
additional precip heading their way, plenty of time for the snow to
pile up and reach the going forecast accums, at least that is where
it`s already snowing. Farther south, esp across the lower SC and GA
piedmont, confidence is dwindling that the cold air will arrive in
sufficient time for appreciable accums to occur. In fact, per the
00Z Raob from KFFC, there is a prominent warm nose across the
region, and the NAM depicts this extending into our southern zones.
Nevertheless, with the event continuing to unfold, and after
collaboration with neighboring WFOs, it was decided to hold onto the
warning in those areas for at least a few more hours before
surrendering. However, we will start to downplay accums in those
areas, advertising "barely warning" criteria. Farther north, we`ve
already had a report of 5 inches of accumulation in Lake Toxaway,
which is pretty close to the forecast storm total. There could
certainly be some portions of the southern mountains that breach the
forecast accum containment, but overall feel pretty good about
forecast totals from roughly I-85 north.

Precip will taper off quickly Saturday morning and end before noon
as the upper and surface systems move away from the area taking the
moisture and forcing with them. Should be breezy to windy during the
morning with winds tapering off by late afternoon. Will likely see
some sun as well. However, highs will likely be below freezing
across much of the area, with mid 30s developing along the Upper
Savannah River valley. This may just set the stage for black ice
where any snow can melt.
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7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

My heavy rain is mixing with moderate rain-36

Yep, our local channels really effed it up once again. Don't say bust though or the moderator will call you ignorant and that you should have been better informed. Where I live in here in Easley/Powdersville, it started snowing about an hour ago, still mixed with rain. Over half of the storm has passed so I'm cutting what Cessarich said in half. I bet 2 -3 inches here at most. I'm shocked to have this much after the rain this afternoon and dryness in the early evening. I really do not understand why no one around here can get it right year after year after year. I have lots of family in Simpsonville. I hope ya'll get something at least.  I think the temps were overblown on the models as usual.  If we had had the temps, then the precip would have been wrong. I miss 1988. Charlie sure got that one right without all of these fancy, inaccurate models.

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Went out to officially measure.  Everywhere on the deck measures 1.5 inches.  It's been snowing for roughly 1.5 hours, so I guess I can say that I've been getting 1"/hr rates here.  Now, how long will these rates continue?  If it does this til 6 AM (as many models seem to indicate), I'm looking at 8+ inches.  That's a big IF, though.

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Just now, berkberk said:

North Gainesville / Hall Co - 1/2" snow on ground, changed back to rain/sleet/snow mix... things fill in on the backside, we will do well to get to 2" by the morning.  We were predicted 3-6".  Temp 33/32 at the moment.  

 

Surface temps here have really prevented this from being more significant than it otherwise would be. I'm still at 33 and have been for hours.

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1 minute ago, phishbfm said:

I mean.....

 

Screenshot from 2017-01-06 22-40-45.png

 

Dumb thing I've always wondered, esp looking at areas like these around Charlotte and Raleigh--do these more densely packed metro areas not give off some kind of residual heat from all the houses/buildings/cars/pavement/etc that affects things?

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Popped open my 3rd and final beer of the night and went outside while the snow is pouring down.  Wind is picking up and being so close to the transition line the flakes are rather hard, almost graupel like, but definitely flakes.  Working on a solid dusting in a matter of maybe 20-30 minutes?  Hard to tell in dead bermuda but basing it on the neighborhood streets.  If it could keep this up til mid-morning we would hit that original 4-6" forecast here for sure.

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10 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Just looking at radar, if the band off to my southwest can stay together looks like it might bring the heaviest snow yet.

i've been watching that with interest as well. it sort of (hope i am not wish-seeing lol) starting to get some development of heavier echos just to the sw of both of us.  its gorgeous out right now - of course more is always better haha

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1 minute ago, thess said:

 

Dumb thing I've always wondered, esp looking at areas like these around Charlotte and Raleigh--do these more densely packed metro areas not give off some kind of residual heat from all the houses/buildings/cars/pavement/etc that affects things?

Maybe all the hot air and methane from the bs rising up from the general assembly???  Oops...that should be in the banter board

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