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Wow

Jan 6-8 Winter Storm Observations

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GSP update

FXUS62 KGSP 070030
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
730 PM EST Fri Jan 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will lift out of the Northern Gulf of Mexico
tonight bringing widespread winter precipitation to the region. As the
low moves offshore, a strong arctic surface high will overspread the
region late Saturday and persist into early next week, bringing very
cold air into the region. Another cold front is expected to approach
the Carolinas by the middle of next week, increasing rain chances
once again.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 8 PM, the brief lull in the precip is coming to an end, as
additional precip continues to fill in along an axis from eastern
Alabama through N Georgia and into western NC. This will overspread
the remainder of the forecast area through the next couple of hours.
Locations above about 1500', and roughly along and north of an axis
from Rutherfordton, to Lincolnton, to Salisbury in NC will be
solidly snow, while after an initial bout of rain and perhaps sleet,
a transition to snow is expected to occur down to near the I-85
corridor by midnight or so. South of there, considerable uncertainty
lingers regarding the timing of a transition, as wet bulb temps from
Anderson to Union to Chester SC are lingering near 40 degrees, and
there is not expected to be a tremendous push of cold surface air
into these areas over the next few hours. In fact we're beginning to
get concerned that those areas won't see any significant
near-surface cooling until the moisture begins to shift east of the
area. We will wait for the event to unfold a little more (and await
00Z guidance) before making any radical changes to the forecast and
products, but confidence that the warning will work out over the
southern half of the Upstate and northeast GA is beginning to slip.

Confidence is higher along the I-85 corridor, but considering the
warm nose indicated on special 18Z Raob from KFFC, and the fact that
sfc temps are going to need to drop another couple of degrees before
the transition to snow occurs, am concerned that initially rain,
followed perhaps by sleet, will cut into the snow accums in those
areas.

Meanwhile, forecast confidence remains high for locations
north of the I-85 corridor. Expect there will be some banding
overnight with frontogenetical forcing and slant-wise instability
developing, so locally higher amounts than the 4-8 inches forecast
in these areas will certainly be possible.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

For everyone worried about the snow hole you may be in. here is some reassessment from Brad. :)

 

Yeah, not sure why this is a big deal. All the short range models had the lull.

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2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

This is the runniest snow I've ever seen.  NE Winds at 10 and the temp is down to still way too #%[email protected]$€£ hot to snow.

You kill me CR.  At least we Raleighites can be in misery together.  35 and still rain in North Raleigh.  

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3 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Clayton, GA

Snow really starting to ramp up now. Solid dusting. 

Good to hear I told you you were good. Now sit back and watch it snow for another 8-10 hours followed by the freezer. 

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32 about 5 miles south of the VA boarder, just north of Roanoke Rapids.  -IP, roads are a little slick.  It was 33 in Roanoke Rapids so I think we found our spot.

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2 minutes ago, snowinnc said:

You kill me CR.  At least we Raleighites can be in misery together.  35 and still rain in North Raleigh.  

This Arctic air mass is a beast!  I don't guess we are supposed to change over until around 10 or 11 maybe?  Pack told me we were gonna get freezing rain now. :(

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1 minute ago, Wild Weather Monger said:

Been stuck here south of you at 36 for hours.  The freezing wall appears to have been well modeled here.  Hoping for a Hwy 78 miracle after midnight.

 

 

 

It's a real buzz kill thats for sure...

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Just now, Wow said:

flurries - 32.4

This almost reminds me of the beginning of a big overrunning event right now. Small flakes, right at freezing. Here we go.

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Just now, Queencitywx said:

This almost reminds me of the beginning of a big overrunning event right now. Small flakes, right at freezing. Here we go.

I think you guys are in the perfect spot.  I wouldn't be surprised to see 8+ inches up your way

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5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

This Arctic air mass is a beast!  I don't guess we are supposed to change over until around 10 or 11 maybe?  Pack told me we were gonna get freezing rain now. :(

Really?  I was just irritated about having a cold rain but freezing rain is the bane of my existence.  I absolutely loathe freezing rain with every fiber of my being.  I'd rather have 33 and rain.  Ugh.  

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I'm right on the rain/snow line here in Simpsonville. It's either going to be the big wet sand dollar flakes, or cold rain.. I did this to myself :weep:

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3 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

A bout of moderate sleet and big flakes here now!

Good luck dude! Hook a big one tonight!

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