USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Yes sir, waiting on the GFS, CMC, UKMET and EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: It is starting to Dendrite, models are not done with the trend which started at 6z. Give it some more time. SREFS are gung ho on this system as well. SREFs usually have the right idea a few hours after verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 We'd advise not to get sucked in. She's gone except for a CC couple inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 How can you just ignore the adjustments on the models. If the southern stream is much stronger than modeled currently, we could have a major snowstorm for all of SNE. You can't just dismiss a piece of guidance. It is part of the puzzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: How can you just ignore the adjustments on the models. If the southern stream is much stronger than modeled currently, we could have a major snowstorm for all of SNE. You can't just dismiss a piece of guidance. It is part of the puzzle. I easily can ignore the NAM and SREFs until the big boys show similar behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Umm, the GFS did show similar behavior, at the 6z run nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Wish we could get that trailing GL s/w to dig on in and phase a bit. That really needs to happen to pull this further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Umm, the GFS did show similar behavior, at the 6z run nonetheless. I'm talking about 12z. The GFS was nothing for 99% of the population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: SREFs usually have the right idea a few hours after verification. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Moving from East Taunton to Plymouth this year I am hoping the NAM is on to something here, but not to hopeful. I keep telling my wife that it doesn't snow in Plymouth, even though I know the snowfall average difference is about 5 or so inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm talking about 12z. The GFS was nothing for 99% of the population. The Georges Bank marine life just wept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I'm just going to crash and burn riding this train....At least it is something to glance at and watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Remember when the 3km NAM gave central CT 4" on 10:1 ratios? Like, three runs ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Looks like the NAM is hitting the shrooms again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wow what treat it would be in the 12z Nam had a clue for wave 2. Reaching but that is all we can do at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Remember when the 3km NAM gave central CT 4" on 10:1 ratios? Like, three runs ago? I know, not expecting more than some high clouds to our south and east. It is fun to look at though.... 4K too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 12z nam showed pretty clearly how a weaker wave 1 translates into a better track for wave 2. Definitely want to see the euro and GFS trend better today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 24 minutes ago, Hazey said: Wow what treat it would be in the 12z Nam had a clue for wave 2. Reaching but that is all we can do at this point. I think u do better than me for the week. On the 2 systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 23 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 12z nam showed pretty clearly how a weaker wave 1 translates into a better track for wave 2. Definitely want to see the euro and GFS trend better today. I din't think it has anything to do with that. what it showed was a more expansive area of precip induced by a much stronger jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The shortwave on the 12z GFS looks pretty damn sharp at hr 12, when it hasn't even passed the Rockies. Good sign for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I din't think it has anything to do with that. what it showed was a more expansive area of precip induced by a much stronger jet. Well, undoubtedly the storm was more intense versus 6z. But more importantly 12z was a 100 mile shift northwest versus 0z and 75 miles shift northwest versus 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Yeah definitely a sharper trough. Should be a bit more tucked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The shortwave on the 12z GFS looks pretty damn sharp at hr 12, when it hasn't even passed the Rockies. Good sign for sure. That southern s/w is more amped then 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Srn s/w is better so this should be closer than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 LOL, this may look closer to the euro from 00z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 We lucky tucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Its a step in the right direction, Needs more work, But having the southen s/w come in more amped is a good sign, Now if we can get the northern stream s/w to help out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its a step in the right direction, Needs more work, But having the southen s/w come in more amped is a good sign, Now if we can get the northern stream s/w to help out Wholesale changes ain't happening but for my area this subtle change makes a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 That's a sizeable change at 500 this close. Given the longitude approach...any tickle east or west is a rather big difference in sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Wholesale changes ain't happening but for my area this subtle change makes a difference. A few of these tics certainly favor areas like yours, That was a shift better then 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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