dryslot Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's a sizeable change at 500 this close. Given the longitude approach...any tickle east or west is a rather big difference in sensible weather. I thought it was a pretty sizable step west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The swings with this storm have been impressive...lol. I'm back in the game with the gfs. There's that west sidestep I was hoping for earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 inches BOS-PVD and SE with 6+ canal east this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Okay we are 2 for 2. Next up the CMC and Ukie Then we wait for the Lord.... Is this reflecting newer and better data about the shortwave over the Pacific? Thought we didn't get that data til this eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hazey said: The swings with this storm have been impressive...lol. I'm back in the game with the gfs. There's that west sidestep I was hoping for earlier. Im not even sure youd want it much more tucked in that run. That was a deformation fluff job through and through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I thought CMC improves at 500, but more an inv trough look still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GFS Two storm total with Kuchera method, congrats Lord James Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I thought CMC improves at 500, but more an inv trough look still. Blockbuster winter at h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Im not even sure youd want it much more tucked in that run. That was a deformation fluff job through and through. Yeah I would be ok with that track right there. Hopefully it is a tangible shift and not some model burp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I thought CMC improves at 500, but more an inv trough look still. Ha, I looked at H5 first and was like "wow, that's gonna give advisory to BOS" and then clicked on the precip tab and saw basically a whiff except the Cape. Kind of weird. The much sharper H5 look though on all guidance has been intrigued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Massive improvement on the GFS IMHO. like the NAM its all about the Jet streak and 5H 12z vs 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 More interested in seeing the Ukie then the cmc, I think the SE areas are back in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 This is one of those years that if it says 1-3 for ORH, I'm happy. Reminds me of how it was at this point in 015. Anything was a gift... and then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Mid level magic for TAN, PVD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, weatherfreeeeak said: Ukie? Not out for a few more min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Ukie is def NW of 00z...can't see QPF yet for the queens, but it has a pretty good look for the eastern 1/3rd of SNE I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I would pay less attention to the CMC regarding this system given that the EURO was the first to see this solution and the NAM and GFS are seeing it as well with the CMC the last to the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is def NW of 00z...can't see QPF yet for the queens, but it has a pretty good look for the eastern 1/3rd of SNE I think. Looks like about 0.5" from pvd to maybe boston se? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Looks like about 0.5" from pvd to maybe boston se? Yeah maybe not quite that high for BOS?...but definitely advisory snowfall of like 3-5" (could be higher if ratios are good)...SE MA gets hit pretty good. Probably a solid 6-8" there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Ukie is a big hit for hazey and leo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah maybe not quite that high for BOS?...but definitely advisory snowfall of like 3-5" (could be higher if ratios are good)...SE MA gets hit pretty good. Probably a solid 6-8" there. How does it look for Cape Cod? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah maybe not quite that high for BOS?...but definitely advisory snowfall of like 3-5" (could be higher if ratios are good)...SE MA gets hit pretty good. Probably a solid 6-8" there. Yeah i was looking at uqam meteocentre. U have to squint to get a qpf idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I almost mothballed the bus. I guess it's time to boost the battery and get it running again...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1-3 for ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: How does it look for Cape Cod? 6 - 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 My dad just checked on the snow blower and it ran fine, it is one of those heavy duty 36" one's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: How does it look for Cape Cod? 0.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Most models are showing at least 6-12" for me for the Saturday system, the NAM and its brothers are all 12"+ while the GFS is 6-12", UKMET is 6-12" how is the CMC for the Cape and Islands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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