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WinterWxLuvr

January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2

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17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Heck of a ridge building out west and that trough in the east looks like it has potential with what's going on further north.

It is definitely set up as a "something could pop" easily pattern.  That little system digging down the backside could trend into something pretty easily.  Its a window I am keeping an eye on.  Either for a northern stream system to amplify enough to get us a small event or perhaps something to get picked up from the STJ (less likely).  But its worth watching.  

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It is definitely set up as a "something could pop" easily pattern.  That little system digging down the backside could trend into something pretty easily.  Its a window I am keeping an eye on.  Either for a northern stream system to amplify enough to get us a small event or perhaps something to get picked up from the STJ (less likely).  But its worth watching.  

yep agree (YAAYYYYYY!) :tomato:

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It is definitely set up as a "something could pop" easily pattern.  That little system digging down the backside could trend into something pretty easily.  Its a window I am keeping an eye on.  Either for a northern stream system to amplify enough to get us a small event or perhaps something to get picked up from the STJ (less likely).  But its worth watching.  

That's a setup where you really don't want to see something pop up in the long range because you know inevitably the timing of the pieces of energy the model is keying on will be off and we will lose it. On the other hand this is also a setup where something could pop up out of the blue in the short range and verify as the models get a better handle on the moving pieces of energy.

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

That's a setup where you really don't want to see something pop up in the long range because you know inevitably the timing of the pieces of energy the model is keying on will be off and we will lose it. On the other hand this is also a setup where something could pop up out of the blue in the short range and verify as the models get a better handle on the moving pieces of energy.

This is a link to day 8 5H map. If you click through to day 10, the trough along the coast is looking better and seemingly sticking around waiting for something. That trailing vort on the back side could be what the doctor ordered.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2017011912&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=0

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Nice to see some good signs, even with the early week system next week.  I'm not expecting anything much to trend better for the metro areas to get anything, but it's still interesting to see how much colder the models are indicating now.  As for a possible system behind that in the Euro...well, worth watching for sure.

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58 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Remember that storm in the 2000' when it snowed in Louisiana and Alabama from a bombing low that created a cold air bubble while everyone else was hot. I remember seeing this circle of blue on the map...

This one is my favorite, but I'm a newbie.  

From Nov 1st 2014.  A few inches of snow as far south as Columbia, SC and feet for the Great Smokies while it was about 50+ degrees in every other direction.  DCA had a high of 54 and low of 48 that day.  

 

gfs_z500_sig_east_3.png&w=1484

 

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32 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This is a link to day 8 5H map. If you click through to day 10, the trough along the coast is looking better and seemingly sticking around waiting for something. That trailing vort on the back side could be what the doctor ordered.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2017011912&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=0

Looking at the 00Z EPS for day 8 and 10. IMO Day 8 shows a nice setup for having a piece of northern stream energy diving south and hopefully timing with a southern piece. The setup itself also provides a larger window for this timing to occur then you would normally see. The one hangup though is that there is not to much room for amplification so we would probably see pedestrian low with a somewhat suppressed solution as well as progressive. And we see that at day 10 as the southeast trough gets beat down and the lower heights on the 500's show up maybe a touch farther south then what we would probably want to see. This setup could possible result in a somewhat modest event if we were to see a phase but would probably be more so in our southern regions.

ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_us_8_75.png

 

 

ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_us_10_75.png

Edit:

 

 

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15 minutes ago, TSG said:

This one is my favorite, but I'm a newbie.  

From Nov 1st 2014.  A few inches of snow as far south as Columbia, SC and feet for the Great Smokies while it was about 50+ degrees in every other direction.  DCA had a high of 54 and low of 48 that day.  

 

gfs_z500_sig_east_3.png&w=1484

 

 

Wow, it literally looks like someone dropped a lead weight right into the height field there! :lol:

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21 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking at the 00Z EPS for day 8 and 10. IMO Day 8 shows a nice setup for having a piece of northern stream energy diving south and hopefully timing with a southern piece. The setup itself also provides a larger window for this timing to occur then you would normally see. The one hangup though is that there is not to much room for amplification so we would probably see pedestrian low with a somewhat suppressed solution as well as progressive. And we see that at day 10 as the southeast trough gets beat down and the lower heights on the 500's show up maybe a touch farther south then what we would probably want to see. This setup could possible result in a somewhat modest event if we were to see a phase but would probably be more so in our southern regions.

ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_us_8_75.png

 

 

ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_us_10_75.png

Edit:

 

 

That's last night's run. I "think" it will look better on the 12Z run.

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6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's last night's run. I "think" it will look better on the 12Z run.

Yeah, it is. The new one wasn't up yet and I would rather use the ensembles instead of the ops for the longer ranges. 

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14 minutes ago, Windman18 said:

Just for fun... this would be one heck of a back loaded winter.

C2jLiPtWQAAHOVA.jpeg

that only shows about 40" in the second half... meh

I am holding out for the 60" they got here after Feb 1 in 1958.  

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15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's last night's run. I "think" it will look better on the 12Z run.

the euro control takes that little vort we were looking at and digs it down and spins up a southern system day 12 then bombs it up the coast day 13-14.  8-16" across the area southeast to northwest.  Track ends up a little close and places 95 east mix and dry slot but not until 10" at BWI first.  Details matter not, but it shows the potential you were pointing out with that day 10 map.  Good catch Mitch.  

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

that only shows about 40" in the second half... meh

I am holding out for the 60" they got here after Feb 1 in 1958.  

My mother was taken to the hospital in a fire truck during the blizzard in February. And then I was born! Too bad I have no memory of that great snow storm...

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

that only shows about 40" in the second half... meh

I am holding out for the 60" they got here after Feb 1 in 1958.  

Careful! Someone will believe you! lol

Actually, I'm trying to figure out how it comes up with all that snow when the cold periods (post 10-12 days) are so dry. Maybe I'll just shut up and assume they are right so I can sleep better tonight.

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Careful! Someone will believe you! lol

Actually, I'm trying to figure out how it comes up with all that snow when the cold periods (post 10-12 days) are so dry. Maybe I'll just shut up and assume they are right so I can sleep better tonight.

One thing to consider is you do not need a cold period to get snow in every situation.  I am NOT going to argue that having a warm period is the best way to get er done so to speak but look at the next 5 days.  I am going to end the period +8 or so probably on temps, but the GFS gives me 3-5" of snow.  The euro control btw has about 2-3" northwest of Baltimore in the higher terrain with that.  Lets say, just for arguments sake, that continues to trend colder and places NW of 95 end up with 3-6" of snow.  They finish the week +8 on temps with above avg snow.  One possability is the CFS is seeing a pattern void of any real cold air, but during February and early march you can get systems that do not need an arctic airmass in place.  Feb 1987 was another example.  That 12-18" snowstorm in mid feb happened during a week that finished very warm.  It was only cold when it was snowing.  Its not the best way to do it, I am just speculating how the CFS could be coming up with that.  We get snow along the margins of the warm/wet periods with stale cold that is just cold enough given a good storm track.  

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just FYI stuff the euro ensemble mean snow for the monday/tuesday thing jumped from nothing areawide to about 1" for the far northern and western regions of this forum, and about 1/2" in baltimore and down to about IAD.  Somewhat significant.  It seems to be skewed though between some members that think we get a nice surprise snow, and most that say nada.  

ETA: 12 members have a decent snowfall for places NW of a lessburg to Reisterstown line.  5 members get snow all the way into the cities.

After that.... there is finally a weak signal of support for a storm day 9-14.  Snowfall mean jumps up again to about 2" in baltimore down to DC and about 3" up here.  Nothing to jump up and down about but its the first time we have seen a significant spike in snowfall at all on the euro and there are enough members with hits in that time range to say they generally support the solution I spelled out on the control run a few posts ago.  The euro is saying we have a window of opportunity in the day 9-14 period.  They disagree on which vort digs in and develops.  If its northern or souther stream initiated.  But enough show something to think it may be more then just a ghost.  

ETA: for the entire 15 day period 18 members manage to get at least a 2" snowfall across a significant portion of the region.  Several are pretty big hits mixed in.  Weak signal but more support then we have seen in a long time for something.  It's what I would expect a very first sign of picking up on a window to look like.  

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22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

that only shows about 40" in the second half... meh

I am holding out for the 60" they got here after Feb 1 in 1958.  

JB shows these all of the time on twitter and not once has it ever verified

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

the euro control takes that little vort we were looking at and digs it down and spins up a southern system day 12 then bombs it up the coast day 13-14.  8-16" across the area southeast to northwest.  Track ends up a little close and places 95 east mix and dry slot but not until 10" at BWI first.  Details matter not, but it shows the potential you were pointing out with that day 10 map.  Good catch Mitch.  

95 east mix and dry slot is usually Gold for me. I could care less about what happens 95 and east. when they get a good snow..we are usually fooked

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

95 east mix and dry slot is usually Gold for me. I could care less about what happens 95 and east. when they get a good snow..we are usually fooked

You would hug the euro control.  Its about 18" for you

ETA:  but that is not always true, we did totally fine Dec 2009, Feb 2010, and last January and so did 95.  But yea in some events...we can be living dangerously close to the back edge if east of 95 isn't mixing at least some during the storm.  

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7 minutes ago, Ji said:

95 east mix and dry slot is usually Gold for me. I could care less about what happens 95 and east. when they get a good snow..we are usually fooked

Right.  As soon as someone says " Wes will like this run" I feel a tear well up.  I want Wes to be happy but...I can fail even under decent circumstances. 

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2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This is interesting.....click on the link below. It's to the 500mb day 9 Euro ensembles from 12Z .

Then click on day 10....the negative anomalies actually retrograde a bit and deepen.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017011912&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=192

the euro did have a blizzard in this time frame during yesterdays 12z so....

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