ncjoaquin Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 hour ago, fritschy said: I grew up in the Mtns. of NC thru the sixties and seventies, and we had snow seems like all the time around Asheville, anymore its tough to get a light snow let alone a nice snowstorm, weather has certainly changed for the worse if you like some good snows during the winter. Dude. We had our 8th biggest snow ever in January of this last year, less than a year ago. 13.4 inches in January of 2016. We had our 9th biggest snow in January 2010. It has not been THAT bad. ( and I grew up in the 60's and 70's also) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: Yep, this is a very typical lead up to a potential SE winter storm. We may need to get to Wednesday or so to get a decent idea. Even then how many times have we had to get to looking at radar returns to really know. Very important to remember. 100% Agree. There's little chance models figure it out before the energy is sampled well, which for the first wave is just happening today and tomorrow. I too expect around mid-week to get a better idea. The timing has slowed so when we were thinking Jan 7th it's about a Jan 8-9th time frame now, on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 For the 00z Euro Ensembles for RDU, there's 4 big dogs (8-10"+) and the timing is now averaged on Jan 8-9...I've only seen as much as 1-2 big dogs on the Euro ensemble members so it's a pretty big jump....at one point we were seeing NO big dogs for a while with the members showing light events, so this is yuuuge. not much of a first wave on the ensembles, 4/50 have it and it's a trace event on 1/7. A little confused, title of the thread says 1/5-1/7. Is this thread about the first wave or the entire event? If so, date possibly needs to be expanded 1/7-1/10 or so. Modeling trend is the date just getting pushed back, title of the thread is more along the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Through 84 GFS ticked a little stronger with the pac ridge...wave 1 should be a little better then 0z run. I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: Through 84 GFS ticked a little stronger with the pac ridge...wave 1 should be a little better then 0z run. I hope. Still looks like cold won't be a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Still looks like cold won't be a problem Cold with the first wave won't be an issue at all, ensembles pretty much agree of a 0c 850 line very far south and a most modeling with a -10c line into NC...good news is first wave = all snow for anyone who gets the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Light snow develops over nc thurs afternoon this run. Much better than 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 The back and forth dance with the models will probably continue until the middle of next week. Just good seeing a threat there, and knowing we still have an opportunity for a storm. Going to be a while before we know what is going to happen. A lot of times the back and forth dance ends up being a good storm, and sometimes it ends up being nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Not quite but closer...not saying this will turn into a big dog bug 1-3" on the table with some luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: Light snow develops over nc thurs afternoon this run. Much better than 06z Yeah, winner this run looks to be 1-40 from Greensboro south with 1-2" nice little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Just now, Jon said: Yeah, winner this run looks to be 1-40 from Greensboro south with 1-2" nice little event. Would call this a victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: By south, you mean SC? Or are we out I-40 in NC....see above map Pack posted. I wouldn't say you're out, which is why I said anyone who gets precip will have snow...but you need a wider and more south precip field to cash in and the trend in the first wave is an NC event mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Latest post from Matthew East on Facebook: Still watching the Friday-Sunday period. Extremely complex deal for models in handling Pacific energy. All options really still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Seems like no 2nd wave, this run! A high over New Orleans, can't be good!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Looks like some lee side trough action thursday morning on the GFS. Could be a nice surprise for the NC piedmont down to around Spartanburg and east to Charlotte. The precip always blossoms about 5 miles to my east in these set ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 A ridge over the Rockies, is bad, yes?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Seems like no 2nd wave, this run! A high over New Orleans, can't be good!? No...the big pac ridge kills the 2nd wave potential day 6-8 but I guess it could come later per the GFS. But pattern could be hostile for SE by then. UK follows the GFS, from the course maps I see a weak surface reflection day 5 off the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 The difference between the Euro/CMC/GFS at 84 to 96 are huge. It looks we need to root for that first wave to be more robust, but with a strong cold press in front of it like the GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 CMC has a weak wave that gives NC/VA light snow day 5 but has a wave in TX that look menacing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Be nice if the CMC was right. But right now you have UK/GFS v/s CMC...see what Euro shows in 90 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 GFS v/s CMC at 84 hours...should note the UK is very close to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: GFS v/s CMC at 84 hours...should note the UK is very close to the GFS. Models still don't even have a clue 84 hours out of even a general solution. Insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Well that run of GFS made things clear as mud. Reverted back to 0z look...sort of...there is a lot of cold air near by and that is almost certain. Beyond that it's anyone's guess. I hope the Euro has something helps to clarify. CAD looks good but so far out we are again beyond 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Models still don't even have a clue 84 hours out of even a general solution. Insanity. Is that unusual? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 19 minutes ago, packbacker said: Be nice if the CMC was right. But right now you have UK/GFS v/s CMC...see what Euro shows in 90 mins. Yeah looks like the models held serve with what they were showing last night in terms of which waves they are keying on. I much prefer the CMC solution in terms of the potential it would offer (2nd wave vs. the northern stream 1st wave of UKMet/GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Models still don't even have a clue 84 hours out of even a general solution. Insanity. Looks like the only difference between CMC and GFS is how they handle the ridge pushing up into California. Flat on CMC and pushed north on GFS. This makes a huge difference in the trough shape and orientation, the flatter ridge on CMC allows the energy to move Gradually SW to NE which is what most of us want to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 15 minutes ago, packbacker said: GFS v/s CMC at 84 hours...should note the UK is very close to the GFS. So CMC doesn't have the western ridge, but gives us the wave 2 storm!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 16 minutes ago, packbacker said: GFS v/s CMC at 84 hours...should note the UK is very close to the GFS. This is the complexity right there. That NW s/w. What the Canadian shows is exactly what yesterday's 0z GFS showed. We want that piece to not phase into the N Pac ULL. Once the W ridge builds, we don't have our s/w diving into the SW and can only hope for some light stuff from the first wave dropping in from the polar jet. The Euro had some of the energy coming down but was weak and got sheared out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: So CMC doesn't have the western ridge, but gives us the wave 2 storm!? No ridge at that time frame because it doesn't phase in our s/w with the N Pac ULL. What's good for wave 1 isn't good for wave 2. But wave 2 has the potential to be the big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Maybe our frozen threat will turn into a subtropical storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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