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StoneColdWeatherAustin

Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017

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1 minute ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Who wants to take the lead on the NAM pbp?

Go for it, FTC.  Proper warm-up approach is to say west warm west warm west warm west warm 50 times!

This cycle really should see the NAM get in line or other models start to cave.  I would expect only minor adjustments to the shortwave track and speed after the 0Zs come in.

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2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Lol... sref up to 8 inches   here that an increase from 5 earlier.

LOL...the mean is 9" in GSO now. :yikes:

The 00z NAM may be about to come in insanely amped/NW, if that's any indication.

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1 hour ago, SN_Lover said:

SW is really digging currently in CA. This system might be a doozy. 

Would this have an affect on earlier development of the low? I.e. More moisture for northern AL? 

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1 minute ago, superjames1992 said:

LOL...the mean is 9" in GSO now. :yikes:

The 00z NAM may be about to come in insanely amped/NW, if that's any indication.

I hope so

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SREF to 10 here now from about 6.  Something changed.  I tried to not look at SREF....I really did.  Interesting.  One member has zip still...lol

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21z SREF plumes are pretty sick for GSO, mean went from 6 to 9" compared to 15z.  RDU mean went from 5 to 4 and RWI 5 to about 3.  RIC mean is now over a foot.

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3 minutes ago, sarcean said:

what is the realistic expectation of GSO? Can I safely count on over 6" at this point?

I wouldn't count on it yet...but maybe 3-6"...unless we see a further NW trend,. The 9" mean on the latest SREF has me thinking maybe a big dog is in the cards, though.  The SREF is usually pretty good at this range, so maybe 6"+ is more likely than I think.

2 minutes ago, TiltedStorm said:

sref link?

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

You can select any airport from that link.

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Nam initialize my area (pitt county/ Greenville NC) at 41 degrees the previous run for that time frame had us at 45 so that's a 4 degree error only 6 hours out...

 

Hard to trust temp profile when its that off

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Looking at SREF plumes, from 15z to 21z:

 

Hickory went from 5.93" to 8.20" mean with two big dogs of 23.3" and a total of 9 over 10"

Charlotte went from 4.37" to 5.15" mean with a big dog of 19.18" and a total of 6 over 8"

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No map, but here's what I'm thinking... Going to post a 5 to 10 min video w/ analysis afterwhile on my fb page...

 

Snow/Sleet Totals Effective 12pm Friday to 12am Sunday

Atlanta,GA = 1-3
Athens,GA = 1-3
Asheville,NC = 1-3
Greenville,SC = 2-4
Hickory,NC = 2-4
Charlotte,NC = 4-6
Davidson,NC = 4-6
Columbia,SC = Trace-1
Greensboro,NC = 4-8
Raleigh,NC = 6-10
Greenville NC = 3-5
Roanoke Rapids,NC = 8-12 
Richmond,VA = 3-5 
DC = Trace-1

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Just now, BIG FROSTY said:

Plumes up to 10 here? What tha heck??????????

Just checked out the individual member panels and they are obscene!  It's a classic Miller A phased storm.  Get's up into the NE.

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the NAM was really the only mode with that solution and the PARA NAM didn't have it...

 

So NAM remains an outlier unless other models start going that way.  no biggie.

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