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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

buckeyefan1

By buckeyefan1,
in Southeastern States

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

Good Job CR: I hate to sound like a broken record, but the GFS op is worse than what we had before the upgrade over a year or 2 ago. I nickname it the YO- YO model, cause thats what it does to folks. Its a crying shame we cant develop something better than the current GFS. It got a free pass last winter when most folks pay attn to its LR because we had zilch to track outside of the that JAN storm. However if youve been paying attn throughout the preceeding summer, you can easily see how off its rocker it was predicting surface temps in the 110-115 range everytime we had a heat wave coming that wound up verefying 99-103 neighborhood. LR is tough and your best bet is ens and trying to find,figure out the bigger players(5H). Most on here know that. But I seriously can never take anything this model says, even within 5 days unless it has suport from other models such as the ukie or eps. They ought to have a warning label on the GFS at hour 0z everytime it runs 4 x a day.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

For the record , Im stoked about Dec 26-jan 3. Feel way more confident than usual some of us will see not 1 but 2 seperate events of frozen. We need to cash in because it will be a roller coaster second half of winter this year and timing will be more difficult than it normally is. Which is saying alot if you lived in the SE long enough and understand how hard it is to thread the needle on a good day.

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WarmNose

WarmNose

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

that is further north...

Yeah, we toss ensembles related to the GFS in any way shape or form. At this point I would take the middle ground between the GEFS ensembles and EPS as far as frzn precip goes. Then we go NW from there. But I'm no met and this storm is still 8-9 days out..

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Nice, glad to hear that! Which one are you specifically keying in on, the 28th/29th or January 3rd? Cause you know, we have so many winter events in NC it's hard to keep track....:lmao:

I'm curious, what trends of the storm window are you looking at that make you feel confident? I like the EPS trends of pushing the 50/50 a bit farther south/east and less ridging in the SE for the 29th. 

Right now, I just like the window a couple of days either side of NY.  Not to be too wishy-washy, but all you can ask for at this lead is a decent signal for a few day period, which I think we have.  I have liked the look of this time period for a week or so now.  I like the high pressure to the north, the developing snow pack to the north (more than what we had earlier in the month), and the general look of the vortex over SE Canada (50/50 low feature).  I like that two of the main 3 model suites and ensembles continue to show a favorable winter storm signal.  Hopefully, the 3rd Op will come around...it has flipped and flopped enough, so it's due to show us the good soon.  There are never any guarantees in the SE (well, almost never ;) ) but I think this period holds legit potential...more so than what we've seen for much of the last couple of years.

11 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Good Job CR: I hate to sound like a broken record, but the GFS op is worse than what we had before the upgrade over a year or 2 ago. I nickname it the YO- YO model, cause thats what it does to folks. Its a crying shame we cant develop something better than the current GFS. It got a free pass last winter when most folks pay attn to its LR because we had zilch to track outside of the that JAN storm. However if youve been paying attn throughout the preceeding summer, you can easily see how off its rocker it was predicting surface temps in the 110-115 range everytime we had a heat wave coming that wound up verefying 99-103 neighborhood. LR is tough and your best bet is ens and trying to find,figure out the bigger players(5H). Most on here know that. But I seriously can never take anything this model says, even within 5 days unless it has suport from other models such as the ukie or eps. They ought to have a warning label on the GFS at hour 0z everytime it runs 4 x a day.

Thanks.  I agree about the GFS.  It seemed like it was better before.  At least its ensembles smooth out the chaos some.

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Orangeburgwx

Orangeburgwx

Posted
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3 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Yeah, we toss ensembles related to the GFS in any way shape or form. At this point I would take the middle ground between the GEFS ensembles and EPS as far as frzn precip and goes. Then we go NW from there. But I'm no met and this storm is still 8-9 days out..

Is the NW trend always a 100% given?

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mrdaddyman

mrdaddyman

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Yeah, we toss ensembles related to the GFS in any way shape or form. At this point I would take the middle ground between the GEFS ensembles and EPS as far as frzn precip goes. Then we go NW from there. But I'm no met and this storm is still 8-9 days out..

Not sure if you realize it but this is the Canadian Ensemble Suite. GEPS not GEFS. Just making sure.

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burrel2

burrel2

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Is the NW trend always a 100% given?

There's not really a bias to move NW on the models in the 6 to 10 day time frame, IMO.  If anything it seems like models(esp GFS) tend to lose or suppress storms in the 6/7 day range.  The NW trend bias seems to be inside of 4 days right up to when an event starts.

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frazdaddy

frazdaddy

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Still feeling really good about the threat around New Years.  I think it's going to be a big one.

Mack asked about the GFS and ensembles earlier and why the GFS is so bad against, or rather, so different from it's ensembles.  It's not always the case, but at times, and this is one, the ensemble mean looks totally different.  The reason is the chaotic state of the atmosphere.  That's an over simplification, but when you have a pretty stable atmospheric pattern, you generally get more agreement between a model and it's ensembles (and even other model suites), especially through the short and medium ranges.  It's like throwing a stick into a slow moving river and predicting where it will end up at a given time. 

However, when the atmosphere is more chaotic, meaning you have a very active pattern, highly amplified flow, and anomalously strong features (like a mega epo), it's like throwing a stick into a class 5 rapids and trying to predict where it's going to end up.  The Ensembles smooth out the chaos.  In this case, the GFS may end up being correct, but if you look at the ensemble mean, the changes made to the initial conditions of each individual member and then all of them run and blended together, you will see a fairly different picture than the GFS Op.  Plus, given that it looks different than other other models and their ensemble means, you can conclude that the GFS is an outlier and likely erroneously handling certain features within the chaotic flow.

You also can get a sense of the degree of the chaos of the atmosphere by the amount of flip-flopping a model does over a period of time.  We're seeing a lot of that.  What it should tell you is that there are lots of solutions on the table.  That said, the best approach in my opinionis to look at the trends of the ensembles over a period of time (days) and note things like:  How are height fields trending?  Does there continue to be a storm signal?  Are things like the PNA, NAO, EPO trending stronger or weaker with time?  That will help identify whether or not there is a realistic signal for a winter storm (or whatever you're looking for).

Winter storms around here are precarious to begin with.  It's always threading the needle. The best we can do is look for a signal and see if it has merit.  In this case, my analysis is that there is a legitimate signal for a widespread winter storm, and the eye of the needle is wider than it usually is.  So far, that is what I am seeing, and I feel pretty good about it.

Haven't seen one of these posts from you in a long time. Makes this a very credible possibility and I agree.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

I think the guys in the Mid-Atlantic forum are worried that the end of the month misses them completely.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

That's there schtick...they know they are getting 18-24" of snow in multiple events the next two weeks.  They never miss.

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snowlover91

snowlover91

Posted
Posted
Just now, packbacker said:

Its always fun when a lakes low is sandwiched between a 1040h and a 1050h.

That CMC run is VERY icy, has surface temps upper 20s for a good chunk of the state as the heavy qpf moves through. Would be a wintry mix most likely, depending on thermal profiles.

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tramadoc

tramadoc

Posted
Posted
That's there schtick...they know they are getting 18-24" of snow in multiple events the next two weeks.  They never miss.
I hate being so close to the OBX this time of year. Warm nose from the LP coming too close to me. I hate to say it, but what it takes for snow here usually screws the mountains big time. If we're getting heavy snow, it only goes back about as far as Greensboro. The DelMarVa does better than my area for God's sake.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted
Just now, snowlover91 said:

That CMC run is VERY icy, has surface temps upper 20s for a good chunk of the state as the heavy qpf moves through. Would be a wintry mix most likely, depending on thermal profiles.

CMC keys on the first wave and is wide right with the 2nd wave (TX energy).

gem_z500_vort_us_31.png

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted
Just now, snowlover91 said:

GFS coming in with more blocking over the top, forcing the PV south along with the zone of confluence and heights. Should lead to a more suppressed track for the first wave, probably not enough but a trend towards the Euro/CMC seems likely.

Yep...been trending that way.

bbejKD6.gif

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