CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said: There is so much potential to this you can’t help but get suckered in. Need a lot to happen with the PV and subsequent confluence to keep the HP parked but with that said amazing similarities and agreement right now with the GEFS and EPS this far in advance. Great storm signal. The storm signal is good, but the path is still up for grabs. Need to see some southern trends before I get suckered in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 "Crickets" in here before 0z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: "Crickets" in here before 0z lol I am still trying to get the hang of model timing. Isn't 0Z 7 pm EST? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 10 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: "Crickets" in here before 0z lol it never fails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I am still trying to get the hang of model timing. Isn't 0Z 7 pm EST? GFS: 00z= 12am, 06z=6am, 12z=12pm, 18z=6pm EURO: 00z= 2am, 12z=2pm all times EST, that is when the models for those time stamps come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 It's hard to take the GFS operational serious..unless it shows a Carolina crusher then we take at face value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 anyone want to make some predictions as to what the midnight run will look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: anyone want to make some predictions as to what the midnight run will look like? GFS cuts but not as much as 18z, still a miss, EURO sticks to its guns and shows a CAD event albeit light, then the possible big one around the 30th... thats me wishcasting as well.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 It would be nice for the cold to reload. As it is, two blocking events give arctic air wonderful space to move in, but it's a north flow and therefore dry. The Pacific ridge cuts off and disconnects from the pattern, moving toward the Pole pretty early. This allows the pattern to morph into something else, so storms will usually be the barrier of this change (and mostly rain events). If the Greenland ridge can develop more and sustain, it could be wetter when the cold is here. If the Pacific keeps a strong ridge for a long time, there could be many chances in a more steady pattern. A Stratospheric warming at 10mb is expected to continue through December 30, so that could help on both fronts. Hope this helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: anyone want to make some predictions as to what the midnight run will look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 29 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: GFS: 00z= 12am, 06z=6am, 12z=12pm, 18z=6pm EURO: 00z= 2am, 12z=2pm all times EST, that is when the models for those time stamps come out. While this is accurate for end times, it should be noted that the start times for each of those cycles is about 90 minutes before the listed times. So most of the time you receive the panel you’re interested in way before midnight for the 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Now don't be the bad guy here.... be positive! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 25 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: anyone want to make some predictions as to what the midnight run will look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Y'all goombas, GFS XCMC= gold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 CMC IS A BIG TIME ICE STORM N NC, SOUTHERN VA... STILL GOING AT 204, WITH SNOW COMING ON TOP OF THAT I BELIEVE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: CMC IS A BIG TIME ICE STORM N NC, SOUTHERN VA... STILL GOING AT 204, WITH SNOW COMING ON TOP OF THAT I BELIEVE CMC is also the worst of the "big 3" models, unfortunately. GFS is gonna torch. HP weaker, storm further north. Looks good for the twin cities. EURO will (not) save us at 1:30am! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: CMC IS A BIG TIME ICE STORM N NC, SOUTHERN VA... STILL GOING AT 204, WITH SNOW COMING ON TOP OF THAT I BELIEVE GFS says no Bueno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 32 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: anyone want to make some predictions as to what the midnight run will look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: CMC IS A BIG TIME ICE STORM N NC, SOUTHERN VA... STILL GOING AT 204, WITH SNOW COMING ON TOP OF THAT I BELIEVE ...It's the Canadian at 200+ hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: GFS says no Bueno It's not so bad. At least we get a little backend freezing drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Disc said: ...It's the Canadian at 200+ hours. Who cares? Nice to look at right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 CMC was much better than GFS with last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I'm more nterested in what the GEFS is saying. Winter cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, WarmNose said: It's not so bad. At least we get a little backend freezing drizzle That's the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GFS=midwest cutter, CMC says ice... Ukmet says what storm?(hr 144) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, WarmNose said: It's not so bad. At least we get a little backend freezing drizzle That's 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: CMC was much better than GFS with last storm It was recently upgraded and so far has hit a few events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, burrel2 said: GFS=midwest cutter, CMC says ice... Ukmet says what storm?(hr 144) Not yet in UK timeframe. Wouldn't be a storm at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: That's 18z Oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Not yet in UK timeframe. Wouldn't be a storm at 144 GFS at 144hr, (look at the pacific northwest/rockies). Like I said, the ukmet says what storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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