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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

buckeyefan1

By buckeyefan1,
in Southeastern States

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Iceagewhereartthou

Iceagewhereartthou

Posted
Posted

Got to be realistic fellas, snow outside the mtns this time of year, though possible, is very unlikely. I hope no one is getting their hopes up too high. I'm just hoping we get colder, the 60s-70s we've had the last couple weeks are old. Nov ended up above normal for GSP and Dec starting way above. Need that pattern change to actually happen, seems like it's always 6-10 days out.

 

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Got to be realistic fellas, snow outside the mtns this time of year, though possible, is very unlikely. I hope no one is getting their hopes up too high. I'm just hoping we get colder, the 60s-70s we've had the last couple weeks are old. Nov ended up above normal for GSP and Dec starting way above. Need that pattern change to actually happen, seems like it's always 6-10 days out.

 

As Bob Chill mentioned in our forum we all do better with a broad trough...the advertised pattern is sharp and dry..cold though..we will all score I am hopeful 

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

RAH - for late week... 

The main concern with this system is 
that CAA will still be underway at that time, and some models 
(notably the ECMWF) show partial thicknesses that would suggest snow 
may mix with the rain early Friday morning, particularly north of 
the I-85 corridor.  On the other hand, GFS forecast sounding suggest 
that a few wet snow flakes could mix with the very light rain across 
our Triad zones...but east of the Triad the near-surface airmass 
appears to remain too warm for anything but rain. Its still 
important to point out that the general pattern with this system 
lacks an established strong high pressure to our north, which is 
generally a pattern requirement for any notable snow events here in 
central NC. Without the strong high to our north, we often find that 
the near-surface airmass just isn't cold enough...stay tuned!
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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Solak said:

RAH - for late week... 


The main concern with this system is 
that CAA will still be underway at that time, and some models 
(notably the ECMWF) show partial thicknesses that would suggest snow 
may mix with the rain early Friday morning, particularly north of 
the I-85 corridor.  On the other hand, GFS forecast sounding suggest 
that a few wet snow flakes could mix with the very light rain across 
our Triad zones...but east of the Triad the near-surface airmass 
appears to remain too warm for anything but rain. Its still 
important to point out that the general pattern with this system 
lacks an established strong high pressure to our north, which is 
generally a pattern requirement for any notable snow events here in 
central NC. Without the strong high to our north, we often find that 
the near-surface airmass just isn't cold enough...stay tuned!

We have a small chance. From the wording they're keeping an eye on it. I would say seeing some flakes fly or maybe even a dusting would be a big win for us (...for the short term).   

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SN_Lover

SN_Lover

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Solak said:

The main concern with this system is that CAA will still be underway at that time, and some models (notably the ECMWF) show partial thicknesses that would suggest snow may mix with the rain early Friday morning, particularly north of the I-85 corridor. On the other hand, GFS forecast sounding suggest that a few wet snow flakes could mix with the very light rain across our Triad zones...but east of the Triad the near-surface airmass appears to remain too warm for anything but rain. Its still important to point out that the general pattern with this system lacks an established strong high pressure to our north, which is generally a pattern requirement for any notable snow events here in central NC. Without the strong high to our north, we often find that the near-surface airmass just isn't cold enough...stay tuned!

Note the bolded. None of the global's have a high in a correct placement. Whatever winter p-type that falls will turn to RN quickly, for RAH that is. 

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ILMRoss

ILMRoss

Posted
Posted

It's an alright look. It goes without saying the trough modeled is nice and strong, and it's orientation is in a good spot to put a lot of folks on this forum within striking distance of a nuisance snow. This trough has a lot of moving pieces and different vort maximums that shift around with every model run, and until their positions start to settle down you can't rule a snow out. Currently the feature that looks grossest is the positive tilt of this trough on the OP models; it's really hindering how strong this coastal can get. If we see the operational models acquire a bit more of a negative tilt like the fresh EPS suggest, we could see a stronger low, more precipitation, perhaps a little surface cold air advection with N winds, etc etc.

 

One thing I like about this setup is the general absence of a warm nose, the main thing killing us is warm 2m temps. That's bad, but its not exactly an end-all. If we get a stronger low, precip rates and some advection at the surface could work to our advantage. I understand "precipitation rates will save us" is almost a meme at this point within southern snow storms, but given the soundings I've seen this is a situation where it could work out. 

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WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted
Just now, ILMRoss said:

It's an alright look. It goes without saying the trough modeled is nice and strong, and it's orientation is in a good spot to put a lot of folks on this forum within striking distance of a nuisance snow. This trough has a lot of moving pieces and different vort maximums that shift around with every model run, and until their positions start to settle down you can't rule a snow out. Currently the feature that looks grossest is the positive tilt of this trough on the OP models; it's really hindering how strong this coastal can get. If we see the operational models acquire a bit more of a negative tilt like the fresh EPS suggest, we could see a stronger low, more precipitation, perhaps a little surface cold air advection with N winds, etc etc.

 

One thing I like about this setup is the general absence of a warm nose, the main thing killing us is warm 2m temps. That's bad, but its not exactly an end-all. If we get a stronger low, precip rates and some advection at the surface could work to our advantage. I understand "precipitation rates will save us" is almost a meme at this point within southern snow storms, but given the soundings I've seen this is a situation where it could work out. 

At this point, I just want to see a flurry. It's early December after a warm year. My expectations are low.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

If we just had a big blue H up near the Lakes instead of a big red L.  That seems to be really really hard to get, unless, of course, there are no clouds and precipitation.  It's not going to snow in Raleigh with this setup, unless we get a real bomber that can dynamically cool those mid 40s down a lot.

Hopefully, we can at least keep the cold pattern around a while and lay down some snow cover north and west so that next time, we can wish for dynamic cooling to start from the upper 30s instead of the mid 40s.

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