No snow for you Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Where is Brick to start the storm thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Great video blog from Brad Panovich. Says the chances east of the mountains are pretty much 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, No snow for you said: Where is Brick to start the storm thread LMAO!! They blocked weather sights at his work!!! Going to be a long week for him!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, No snow for you said: Where is Brick to start the storm thread When the conversation in the discussion thread is all about one particular storm, then it's time to create a separate thread. I believe that time has come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: Great video blog from Brad Panovich. Says the chances east of the mountains are pretty much 0. Weather people are never wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Great video blog from Brad Panovich. Says the chances east of the mountains are pretty much 0. I like Brad but he will not mention snow until it's falling and has to play catch up in a hurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 I do appreciate Brad's analysis though. I like his insight and interpretation of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 I've got a feeling the 12z GFS is about to lay a big ole goose egg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I like Brad but he will not mention snow until it's falling and has to play catch up in a hurry lol that is the way to approach it in our area. how many storms have the models shown 24hrs out only for it to bust? when temps are marginal on the models you better believe it is smart to err on the side of caution. anyone hoping for anything noteworthy from this weekend is going to be disappointed outside of the mountains. like brad said, the real snow chances come later in the month with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 GFS out to 90 - eastern trough axis is a little east. Temps a little colder in the SE, but it looks like it's going to be one of those runs where it keeps the precip in the eastern sections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, DopplerWx said: lol that is the way to approach it in our area. how many storms have the models shown 24hrs out only for it to bust? when temps are marginal on the models you better believe it is smart to err on the side of caution. anyone hoping for anything noteworthy from this weekend is going to be disappointed outside of the mountains. like brad said, the real snow chances come later in the month with this pattern. The problem is going to the moisture on the NW side. If the moisture makes it back to 77 or west it will definitely be snow. This may be a case where the NW piedmont does better than the mtns due to lack of moisture being slung back that far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I do appreciate Brad's analysis though. I like his insight and interpretation of models. I like Brad as well. However, his explanation of cold chasing the moisture is not the case on this event. The cold will be already established. Only problem with this one is low-level temps and precipitation shield extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 gfs has no moisture outside of the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS out to 90 - eastern trough axis is a little east. Temps a little colder in the SE, but it looks like it's going to be one of those runs where it keeps the precip in the eastern sections Yep, on to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 CMC has two waves like Wow alluded to (also see that in several GFS Ens members)...but 12z CMC has a light snow event with the 2nd wave for Atlanta area, upstate SC, thru western and central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, SimeonNC said: We all know that it's going to jog northwest, not to mention the models problems with precip extent and intensity. Right now this is where we should want to be If that is true, we should start seeing it on the next couple of runs. The fact that it has trended farther away is concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Man, the more detailed maps come out later, but the UKMet looks more like the CMC. Both of those are digging the northern stream wave more SW than the GFS, into New Mexico and picking up more of the energy hanging around there across northern Mexico...but UKMet shows a nice wave that slowly comes out with sfc low off the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 The GFS noted SE Bias is showing true again perhaps? Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: If that is true, we should start seeing it on the next couple of runs. The fact that it has trended farther away is concerning. GFS was more suppressed while CMC more amped with 1-3" of snow from RDU and west. All depends on how much energy is picked up by the shortwave. My money would be on the Euro/CMC/UK over the GFS. The GFS has been pretty bad since the upgrade, it was abysmal during hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Is it concerning to you guys the NAM is not showing any frozen precipitation? or is it in your view to far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, CADEffect said: Is it concerning to you guys the NAM is not showing any frozen precipitation? or is it in your view to far out? We aren't in range of the NAM showing the QPF yet but looking at 700mb moisture maps, it is more in line with the CMC/Euro idea and not the suppressed GFS, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 The canadian has snow/ip/zr all the way to the gulf coast and what actually looks like a significant event for the Bama and western FL Panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 CMC/GEM/Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: CMC/GEM/Canadian Any snow at any time is a big deal for New Orleans/Mobile/Pensacola. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 19 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: We all know that it's going to jog northwest, not to mention the models problems with precip extent and intensity. Right now this is where we should want to be I'm not so sure it will jog northwest to me it seems as though the conditions won't be favorable for much more than some token flakes for the Piedmont. Anything more is a big win for you folks. Earlier I had been considering the possibility of the precipitation shield reaching all the way where I am as well as western NC but the GFS has seemingly backed off on the 6z and 12z runs. Looking at the Euro ensemble members from last night which were posted the possibility of the cold and moisture aligning seemed likely in the Piedmont though. Until the euro has had a say I will not write it off though. Should everything go south or in this case east I believe there will be plenty more opportunities in the upcoming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Oh Canada, I love you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 If the Euro and EPS hold serve, we may get a bit of snow here- unusual for this early. Any real accumulations seem unlikely though, one big factor is the warm ground. Still any snow before we even hit the Solstice would be a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Not sure if this is the sport to ask this, but is it okay to post EuroWX maps here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, CADEffect said: Not sure if this is the sport to ask this, but is it okay to post EuroWX maps here? Since they are free now, I would say it's ok, but I'm no JBuns! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.