RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: It's been interesting that while the modeled Wildcat-Sunday River trouncing has not waivered at all (as far as I can recall), there has been a slow but steady northward/westward creep on the Meso models of where the rest of heavy snow will fall. Based on this, I'd put greater odds on you overperforming than folks on the cusp in SNE. agree. the west of 91 ticks up north with the better stuff is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Sweet. Bullseye right over my hood While obviously the NAM is overdone on those obscene amounts, IMO what you can take from it, is where the heaviest snowfall will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 RGEM was surprisingly warm but it took the low over like PVD and BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 While obviously the NAM is overdone on those obscene amounts, IMO what you can take from it, is where the heaviest snowfall will occur.Weird. Watching local met. She's showing hvy rain and temps in upper 30s. 8-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Weird. Watching local met. She's showing hvy rain and temps in upper 30s. 8-12". That's a NAM rip and read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 9 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Weird. Watching local met. She's showing hvy rain and temps in upper 30s. 8-12". Sounds like she's talking about my hood. We're under a watch there, but I don't see anything more than 3" on the backside after heavy rain. It's a very different look for coastal Maine this morning than it was 24 hours ago. The meso models are even moving that rain/taint further inland--the same indications that are giving PF hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: That's a NAM rip and read. Man you get absolutely pasted on almost all of these... even the warmer models like the RGEM and NAM have you with a 18" birch bender. Jelly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: That's a NAM rip and read. The RGEM is showing a lot of rain there, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Sounds like she's talking about my hood. We're under a watch there, but I don't see anything more than 3" on the backside after heavy rain. It's a very different look for coastal Maine this morning than it was 24 hours ago. The meso models are even moving that rain/taint further inland--the same indications that are giving PF hope.Model depicted rain/ snow line as far inland as Lew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Model depicted rain/ snow line as far inland as Lew. I'm reluctant to run with that, but the steps in that direction over the past 24 hours on these models can't be ignored. If that holds or continues to trend as 12z, I think PF will have cause to celebrate. The thing that I think most are confident is a big Jackson-Bethel-Dendrite jackpot as that has not really shifted much in the last day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: The RGEM is showing a lot of rain there, too. It's certainly possible if this really amps up. You've got model runs pounding PF now. I don't see any reason to go against the Euro right now though...it's been pretty steadfast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 20 minutes ago, dendrite said: It's certainly possible if this really amps up. You've got model runs pounding PF now. I don't see any reason to go against the Euro right now though...it's been pretty steadfast. I have limited EC access so I have to infer a lot from what I have. While it's been pretty steady, it's amounts have shifted amounts downward somewhat, particularly at the edges in SNE and in coatstal NNE where those shifts are more dramatic. I'm not sure if that's a function of track, intensity, qpf, and/or temps. Regardless of the cause, the end result (coverage of heavy snow) appears to parallel the shifts the mesos are showing with their warmer solutions. SO, they might not be totally out to lunch. 12z will be big. Meanwhile, I get to enjoy some weenie flakes this morning to set the stage for model-watching. 30.3* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 19 minutes ago, dendrite said: It's certainly possible if this really amps up. You've got model runs pounding PF now. I don't see any reason to go against the Euro right now though...it's been pretty steadfast. My thoughts exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Here's the WPC 50% percentile snowfall projection: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Here's the WPC 50% percentile snowfall projection: LOL at the 30" spot on the 50%! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: LOL at the 30" spot on the 50%! That area of NH/ME has been progged so well to get crushed by almost every model. Very high confidence there I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Nice drop in temps/Dews overnight. Seems as though forecasts will bust high today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Nice drop in temps/Dews overnight. Seems as though forecasted highs will underperform today. so that should help keep Nashua all snow? or mixing?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Nice drop in temps/Dews overnight. Seems as though forecasted highs will underperform today. ZFP here is calling for lower 30's and it's 30* now. Seems reasonable to me--might even get mid-30's if the sun breaks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, 512high said: so that should help keep Nashua all snow? or mixing?? I don't think today's temps are going to have an impact one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: ZFP here is calling for lower 30's and it's 30* now. Seems reasonable to me--might even get mid-30's if the sun breaks out. It was about 10F warmer than MOS here last night...barely went below freezing imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, moneypitmike said: I don't think today's temps are going to have an impact one way or the other. ok thanks, just got nws update on cell, 12-16" for my county, what model are they basing that on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 A few flakes this morning. I have not seen much reason to go against the Euro. The NAM has been so amped I am taking it with huge grains of salt. The warmth of the GFS is disconcerting but I am not sure I give it a lot of credence. BOX going big with totals here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, 512high said: so that should help keep Nashua all snow? or mixing?? The storm is tomorrow so I wouldn't get to worked up about it. It certainly helps a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Riding the fence here, The Euro has been steadfast with a more eastern track which holds the cold and snow further to the coast, It has been locked on this solution for days, The other model guidance has shifted back and forth, Should be an interesting day on the models, But i can see a bust in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amc Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Woke up to quite the accumulation decrease and only a WSW inland for ME. Euro back down or is the gfs no longer an outlier? Sent from my SM-T377T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: It was about 10F warmer than MOS here last night...barely went below freezing imby. 10-12F warmer here too. Good night to take the over - well mixed and mid level clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 We talked about this briefly the other day, that this is storm where I could possibly do better than you . However I think when all is said and done this is going to give you a lot of snow . I think the euro has been rocksolid while the other models have shifted around a bit . This is a deep storm that's rapidly deepening as it approaches you and I think that will give enough dynamics to keep you all are mostly snow. I even wonder if you benefit from a couple of hours of extra snow as the system becomes vertically stacked . That should slow it briefly shouldn't it? And in a perfect position for you . How did the UK look for you? I read in the WPC discussion that it gave 2 1/2 inches of precipitation to somewhere in New Hampshire and Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Riding the fence here, The Euro has been steadfast with a more eastern track which holds the cold and snow further to the coast, It has been locked on this solution for days, The other model guidance has shifted back and forth, Should be an interesting day on the models, But i can see a bust in either direction. I was suprised to see the extent of the taint up your way. Hopefully, things will nudge colder today. I'm toast on the coast but you can still come away with a big event--I'm thinking you will. We'll know more in a couple hours though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: It was about 10F warmer than MOS here last night...barely went below freezing imby. Yeah I can't believe how warm it has been the last day. It has been a meltapalooza! Thank God we have a storm coming just-in-time to ensure that our continuous snow-covered continues. I'm down to around 3 inches in the yard and there's probably 5 to 6 inches in the woods . There's actually spots opening up on the sunny hay fields round here which is truly disturbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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