snowman19 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 22z hrrr continues the trend. Snowier, icier, colder.....fwiw. NWS Upton keeps raising snow and ice totals for the NYC metro. It just went up again. If they go much higher they will have to go with a winter storm warning soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 If you look at extreme S NJ you can really see the surface wave depicted nicely here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Hrrr has close to 5 inches for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 16, 2016 Author Share Posted December 16, 2016 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: NWS Upton keeps raising snow and ice totals for the NYC metro. It just went up again. If they go much higher they will have to go with a winter storm warning soon Can you post the pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Agreed. I really find the 4km useful in these situations. That record 500mb height anomaly is the elephant in the room with this forecast imo and of course that weak coastal wave which looks to be just enough of a player to keep llc from scouring out as quickly as we thought 36 hrs+ ago. Yeah, you can also see an inverted trough-coastal front enhancing precip for Long Island right before and after the changeover on the new HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 4 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Can you post the pic? This is the most recent map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 16, 2016 Author Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: This is the most recent map Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 21/3 - hoping to get a solid 3"... anything over 3 I will take as a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Can you post the pic? It's not letting me post my screenshot here for some reason. But it's on the website (projected snow/ice accumulations) if you want to take a look. If the new HRRR is correct, there will be very heavy snow hitting the area at 14z tomorrow morning with the freezing rain changeover racing up quickly from the south right on its heels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Models seem to be picking up on the enhanced banding by the rain/snow line in nw suffolk and n. Nassau. I would be shocked if the above verified. 2 in on the barrier islands and 5 inches IMBY. I wouldn't be shocked to see it snow 1-2 hour longer up here than on the barrier beach. Pretty much all the models show some version of that. Difference might be more like 1" vs 3", but same concept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 HRRR pretty much in line with all other guidance... 3-5" for NYC looks like a real possibility, as well as most of the Hudson valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Looks like montauk really doesn't cash in still, improvements for the island though including me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 If I get more than 2" in Long Beach with this I'll be pretty surprised. The colder shifts in the models are a little intriguing though. It might mean something for the north shore and areas close to the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If I get more than 2" in Long Beach with this I'll be pretty surprised. The colder shifts in the models are a little intriguing though. It might mean something for the north shore and areas close to the city. Back from Texas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 17, 2016 Author Share Posted December 17, 2016 I think 3 inches is good for my part of Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: I think 3 inches is good for my part of Brooklyn With how the High is retreating NYC is not a bad spot to be. They might do better then places in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 in recent memory these types of events seem to frequently over-perform with the cold hanging tough north for areas north of ~belmar nj (away from immediate shoreline) and north of the LIE on long island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Short terms have precip completely ending by 11/12, dry slot enters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 21 minutes ago, psv88 said: Back from Texas? I just moved back-started a new job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 17, 2016 Author Share Posted December 17, 2016 Just now, jm1220 said: I just moved back-started a new job. Couldn't take the texas heat lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I just moved back-started a new job. Hey great to have you back in the area!! You just wanted the snow back!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 13 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I just moved back-started a new job. Hey, we wound up in the same forum for the same reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 15 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I just moved back-started a new job. Awesome. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 31 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Short terms have precip completely ending by 11/12, dry slot enters Yep, by noon it should all be over. Very good model agreement on that and the start time (around midnight) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 26 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Hey great to have you back in the area!! You just wanted the snow back!!! Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 31 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Couldn't take the texas heat lol Yeah... July through most of September there is essentially hell on Earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 17, 2016 Author Share Posted December 17, 2016 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yeah... July through most of September there is essentially hell on Earth. I could never live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 43 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I just moved back-started a new job. Welcome back. Congrats on the new job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 44 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I just moved back-started a new job. Welcome back. Enjoy what winter has to offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 13 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yeah... July through most of September there is essentially hell on Earth. Nice to have my rain/snow line 5 miles to my south back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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