SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Ggem hits LI, NJ harder than Ulster county and north. 3-5 v. 2-3. Not sure I buy it but I will take it The RGEM is similar although for Long Island it's not as snowy. It has maybe 1-2 by JFK and 3-5 from LGA back into NYC and eastern NJ along the Hudson. It also has freezing rain accumulations, even for Long Island, although not much. The RGEM has been pretty steady now on JFK changing over at 12Z and LGA by 13-14Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Nam continues its cool trend, most of the Hudson valley and NWNJ stays all frozen on front thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Just now, swamplover56 said: Nam totals? Darn Close to euro solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 4 and 3 K NAM show 3-6 for everyone outside of eastern Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 wouldnt these higher amounts coming be higher because of more icing being expected..arent they included in the totals. Im beginning to think its the icing thats the issue after a couple of inches for us in central NJ to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Just now, Snow88 said: 0z runs will be crucial tonight It's to late for that. HRRR has snow moving in around midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 This trend doesn't surprise me, it's bitterly cold and there's just no way that the changeover to rain starts as soon as was projected this morning. In fact I think that when the change ever does come we're going to see a good deal of freezing rain. Plus there's always the halo rule whennever I see a prominent halo its usually almost always a good snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 18z 4k NAM has a significant icing event just west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 9 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: It's to late for that. HRRR has snow moving in around midnight. That's early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 go icy. how many times do we see the models fail with warm fronts in the spring? same thing going on tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 15 minutes ago, forkyfork said: go icy. how many times do we see the models fail with warm fronts in the spring? same thing going on tomorrow 15 minutes ago, forkyfork said: go icy. how many times do we see the models fail with warm fronts in the spring? same thing going on tomorrow meso low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: meso low Wow... really hope that doesn't verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 22 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: This trend doesn't surprise me, it's bitterly cold and there's just no way that the changeover to rain starts as soon as was projected this morning. In fact I think that when the change ever does come we're going to see a good deal of freezing rain. Plus there's always the halo rule whennever I see a prominent halo its usually almost always a good snowstorm Flow right off warm water will do it every time. Especially out here. I'm suspect for coastal areas. If it we're February it would be a different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Flow right off warm water will do it every time. Especially out here. I'm suspect for coastal areas. If it we're February it would be a different story My comments weren't directed for coastal areas (LI and NYC). I think you guys flip to rain without much ZR in between. Areas 50 miles or more away from the coast is another story, that CAD is gonna hold strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 the cold wedge forces the meso low to form. we have fresh arctic air in place before the storm with very low dewpoints. it won't fully erode until the precip moves out. also notice how the winds are NE from long island on west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 16, 2016 Author Share Posted December 16, 2016 You guys got forky involved uh oh lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 17 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the cold wedge forces the meso low to form. we have fresh arctic air in place before the storm with very low dewpoints. it won't fully erode until the precip moves out. also notice how the winds are NE from long island on west. I've been noticing for the last few model runs now how if you look just at the isobars you'd think the winds over NRN NJ and NYC are southerly. But then you look more closely and realize many of those places are ENE or NE. I'm still thinking that as far as near the metro area you'll need to go back towards Newark to see any prolonged ice. I don't even see LGA or NYC holding on long in this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 GFS coming in colder yet again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 18z gfs not pretty for northern nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Just now, Allsnow said: 18z gfs not pretty for northern nj Major sleetfest for a lot of LHV mod morning early afernoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveTinNY Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Should be an interesting commute tomorrow morning at 5:45am from Rockland County up to Dutchess..... oh joy. I love my job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 18z gfs not pretty for northern nj Hopefully, people wait to take that Christmas shopping trip to the mall in NNJ until later in the day or Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: Hopefully, people wait to take that Christmas shopping trip in NNJ until later in the day or Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 rgem continues with its colder look 3-5 for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I don't want to start a whole thing up again, but 15Z is what 10am our time or 11am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 RGEM takes a diff approach, coastal develops and becomes primary, really robs the interior of decent snow despite everyone north of rockland staying all snow, RGEM is very cold, central and NNJ/NYC make out better than interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I don't want to start a whole thing up again, but 15Z is what 10am our time or 11am? 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Just now, forkyfork said: 10 thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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