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Winter Banter & General Discussion/Observations

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Not to offend the radiators...but the shallow, calm cold definitely doesn't have the bite of those really low thickness airmasses. Maybe it's better to call them plain old cold and call the wind chill adv airmasses "man cold".

True enough, but calm or windy makes only a little difference to the battery in my pickup.  (Unless it's really roaring, like 1/18/82 in Ft. Kent, -34 with winds into the 30s - minus 101 on the old WCI -  and even with the heater-hose engine warmer running all night, my little Isuzu PU barely started.)

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Well upslope is fake snow anyways. 

Luckily that fake 2.5" QPF upslope snow event put down the 20" snowpack at the base of the mountain back in early December happened as that's what we've been surviving on over other ski areas haha.

It's basically anything that happens very locally is fake lol.  Radiation cold, OES/LES/upslope, downslope warming into BDL/E.MA, all fake in the larger synoptic picture.

Or is it fake if it doesn't happen in KTOLLA?  I like that description better, lol.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, tamarack said:

True enough, but calm or windy makes only a little difference to the battery in my pickup.  (Unless it's really roaring, like 1/18/82 in Ft. Kent, -34 with winds into the 30s - minus 101 on the old WCI -  and even with the heater-hose engine warmer running all night, my little Isuzu PU barely started.)

My car likes the warmer nights with wind better than the fake cold nights of -20F.  

Fake or not it's usually very nice to leave my house at -20F at 750ft and get out of the car at 0F ten minutes later at 1,500ft.  It really makes it feel warm at the ski resort haha.  You can immediately feel it when you step out.

That radiational cold where you are getting diamond dust is the instant nostril freeze where it hurts to take a deep breath.  The mixed atmosphere seems a lot less harsh on those days.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
Just now, powderfreak said:

My car likes the warmer nights with wind better than the fake cold nights of -20F.  

Fake or not it's usually very nice to leave my house at -20F at 750ft and get out of the car at 0F ten minutes later at 1,500ft.  It really makes it feel warm at the ski resort haha.  You can immediately feel it when you step out.

That radiational cold where you are getting diamond dust is the instant nostril freeze where it hurts to take a deep breath.  The mixed atmosphere seems a lot less harsh on those days.

 

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Luckily that fake 2.5" QPF upslope snow event put down the 20" snowpack at the base of the mountain back in early December happened as that's what we've been surviving on over other ski areas haha.

It's basically anything that happens very locally is fake lol.  Radiation cold, OES/LES/upslope, downslope warming into BDL/E.MA, all fake in the larger synoptic picture.

Or is it fake if it doesn't happen in KTOLLA?  I like that description better, lol.

Seems like a lot of anger directed at our quaint New England town from you.

We don't make the wx, we just live here. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Posted
9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Luckily that fake 2.5" QPF upslope snow event put down the 20" snowpack at the base of the mountain back in early December happened as that's what we've been surviving on over other ski areas haha.

It's basically anything that happens very locally is fake lol.  Radiation cold, OES/LES/upslope, downslope warming into BDL/E.MA, all fake in the larger synoptic picture.

Or is it fake if it doesn't happen in KTOLLA?  I like that description better, lol.

I never realized people got so angry at the semantics of describing airmasses until this forum, lol.

 

Maybe "faux proxy" is a better way to describe it for the radiational cold airmasses like last night (the night before radiated too, but it was still man-cold with -18C 850 temps). We originally poked fun at the radiational cooling way back on eastern in like 2005 or 2006 when weenies would obsess over the models busting on a progged storm because they got 10F colder than they were supposed to the night before...and we had to explain to them that it was completely meaningless. The cold air was wiped out as soon as the atmosphere mixed and they were going to get rain anyway.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I never realized people got so angry at the semantics of describing airmasses until this forum, lol.

 

Maybe "faux proxy" is a better way to describe it for the radiational cold airmasses like last night (the night before radiated too, but it was still man-cold with -18C 850 temps). We originally poked fun at the radiational cooling way back on eastern in like 2005 or 2006 when weenies would obsess over the models busting on a progged storm because they got 10F colder than they were supposed to the night before...and we had to explain to them that it was completely meaningless. The cold air was wiped out as soon as the atmosphere mixed and they were going to get rain anyway.

Haha yeah it's a tough one I guess unless you are experiencing it.  

It's obviously the "fake" name...doesn't bother me with temps, I get it completely and often see an entire low level profile in person every day.  I just hate that I have to pay to heat it and when my wife's car doesn't start and I have to deal with it because it's -20F while it's +10F at 4000ft.  

I could definitely do without it all winter.

On the flip side when it's 47-53F every night in the summer and quick sudden cooling at sunset with great sleeping weather while 1,500ft is mixed at 63F, then it's much more appreciated lol.

The BDL fake heat is another in the summer.  Feels real but the 10F/1000ft lapse rates say otherwise.  

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Haha yeah it's a tough one I guess unless you are experiencing it.  

It's obviously the "fake" name...doesn't bother me with temps, I get it completely and often see an entire low level profile in person every day.  I just hate that I have to pay to heat it and when my wife's car doesn't start and I have to deal with it because it's -20F while it's +10F at 4000ft.  

I could definitely do without it all winter.

On the flip side when it's 47-53F every night in the summer and quick sudden cooling at sunset with great sleeping weather while 1,500ft is mixed at 63F, then it's much more appreciated lol.

The BDL fake heat is another in the summer.  Feels real but the 10F/1000ft lapse rates say otherwise.  

Yep, DSD = fake heat. Man heat would be a 90 at ORH. 

 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

For the record, temps on a night like last night are nearly impossible to "get right." 

The forecast obviously could've been better (night two is usually the better radiator than night one of a cold air mass), but it's just too hard to keep up with the local intricacies of the fake cold. On my drive home I went from +9 to -1 back to +13 all over the course of a mile or so. And those are all in the same grid point. How am I supposed to put that in a P&C?

I actually thought the zones read better last night, for coastal Cumberland (PWM) I think it read "Lows 1 to 9 above."

I had to update just about every hour to keep temps in line as they bounced in and out of clouds or a puff of wind.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

For the record, temps on a night like last night are nearly impossible to "get right." 

The forecast obviously could've been better (night two is usually the better radiator than night one of a cold air mass), but it's just too hard to keep up with the local intricacies of the fake cold. On my drive home I went from +9 to -1 back to +13 all over the course of a mile or so. And those are all in the same grid point. How am I supposed to put that in a P&C?

I actually thought the zones read better last night, for coastal Cumberland (PWM) I think it read "Lows 1 to 9 above."

I had to update just about every hour to keep temps in line as they bounced in and out of clouds or a puff of wind.

Yeah I don't understand all reactions to local hollows being colder than modeled. No offense to them, but who cares in the grand scheme of things. Did life change because you were -2 instead of +9?

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I don't understand all reactions to local hollows being colder than modeled. No offense to them, but who cares in the grand scheme of things. Did life change because you were -2 instead of +9?

The Maple Hollow section of Bakersfield, CT is extremely offended right now.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Posted
6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I don't understand all reactions to local hollows being colder than modeled. No offense to them, but who cares in the grand scheme of things. Did life change because you were -2 instead of +9?

I would say learn your climo too...if you live in a place consistently colder than your surroundings on a radiational cooling setup (and it happens often, so it's not like you wouldn't notice)....then you should know to typically undercut the forecasted low temps by 4-8F on a regular basis...perhaps even more with fresh snow cover. The forecast is for the area as a whole not just the valleys and glens.

 

I always talk about how on a good setup, I'd see the top of winter hill have a temp of 5F and by the time I was down near Indian Lake less than 1 mile away it would be -8F or something. The forecast was probably something like "low around 0F"....so you know if it's a calm night, then you subtract several degrees if you're at the bottom of a hill and maybe add a couple at the top.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I don't understand all reactions to local hollows being colder than modeled. No offense to them, but who cares in the grand scheme of things. Did life change because you were -2 instead of +9?

It's more than that.  I totally get knowing your micro climate but there are times like last night when a forecast is totally blown.  I know I'm going to be colder than forecast 90% of the time.  As I've said many times, I live on a hillside at 675' which is about 200' above the lowest parts of town and about 650' below the highest parts of town so if anything, I don't represent either extreme and am probably more average than you can get.  In other words, I'm not as cold as the local hollows as you call them or the highest hills. 

Those hill tops got down to the forecasted low while everyone else was well below it.  That's a blown forecast and anyone who looked at a meso map last night would have known that their forecast low was generally too warm.  It happens all the time and I just chuckle and make the observations and I'm made out to someone living in an extreme place and that is not the case.

I'm not offended at all but I should be able to voice my opinion.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I would say learn your climo too...if you live in a place consistently colder than your surroundings on a radiational cooling setup (and it happens often, so it's not like you wouldn't notice)....then you should know to typically undercut the forecasted low temps by 4-8F on a regular basis...perhaps even more with fresh snow cover. The forecast is for the area as a whole not just the valleys and glens.

I always talk about how on a good setup, I'd see the top of winter hill have a temp of 5F and by the time I was down near Indian Lake less than 1 mile away it would be -8F or something. The forecast was probably something like "low around 0F"....so you know if it's a calm night, then you subtract several degrees if you're at the bottom of a hill and maybe add a couple at the top.

I know that the forecasts are averages and don't cover micro areas.  I think most people do that, even people outside of this board.

To use your example, winter hill got down to 12° but Indian Lake was -5°.  The forecast low was 12° which was only achieved at one end of the extreme.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Just now, MetHerb said:

I know that the forecasts are averages and don't cover micro areas.  I think most people do that, even people outside of this board.

To use your example, winter hill got down to 12° but Indian Lake was -5°.  The forecast low was 12° which was only achieved at one end of the extreme.

I wasn't trying to argue last night's forecast was a good one...just making a general point about temperature differences on rad setups.

 

The second night of a good radiating high is typically when the forecasts tend not to be cold enough. MOS tries to rush the return flow and if you rip and read too much on the forecast, then you're gonna blow it.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I don't understand all reactions to local hollows being colder than modeled. No offense to them, but who cares in the grand scheme of things. Did life change because you were -2 instead of +9?

Well you also have a general public that doesn't understand it.  So if the thermometer at their house says -9F, it's -9F when the forecast says lows 5-10F.  

I think in NNE the hollows are different than they are in SNE.  They are more localized in SNE where a large portion of the rural population in NNE lives in these "hollows" (i.e. not in the 2000-4000ft levels) as that's where the villages and towns were settled along the river valleys and drainages back in the 1700s/1800s.

Fake cold affects a larger percentage of the population up this way I guess is a way to put it.

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