ag3 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, Morris said: I figured from the beginning of the week already that KNYC will miss freezing this morning. Looks like the NYC observations are coming from downtown Manhattan. Central Park appears to still be down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 28 here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 31 minutes ago, ag3 said: NYC, LGA and JFK still above freezing as of 6am. Tonight was always going to be the coldest. I really didn't think they would reach 32 last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 EWR down to 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Models converging on the idea of a more -EPO now going forward. So yet another winter month since 13-14 where the NAO/AO falls short but the Pacific exceeds expectations and does the work for cold and snow potential. The one common denominator is that we continue in an era of remarkable blocking patterns. The coast just needs one of these waves to get forced far enough south under the Arctic high to produce snowfall like we saw in similar patterns in Dec 08 and 13 where the Pacific blocking dominated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 8 hours ago, pazzo83 said: LMAO they just did that because we were so far past the avg first freeze dates. We still have plenty of things growing here - most stuff is gonna get killed this weekend though. Yeah, I took up what was left yday, peppers etc. They must be using the all time avg and not the 30 yr avg to get that 2 week comment. They mean the growing season was ended as far as the frost/freeze warning program is concerned. They have no interest in issuing freeze warnings in Dec. The sun angle ends the growing season before temp do in the UHI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Boro Park hit freezing. Frozen puddles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 57 minutes ago, bluewave said: Models converging on the idea of a more -EPO now going forward. So yet another winter month since 13-14 where the NAO/AO falls short but the Pacific exceeds expectations and does the work for cold and snow potential. The one common denominator is that we continue in an era of remarkable blocking patterns. The coast just needs one of these waves to get forced far enough south under the Arctic high to produce snowfall like we saw in similar patterns in Dec 08 and 13 where the Pacific blocking dominated. One thing of note .The SE ridge is not a killer . The center is not over the lakes . SE ridging at 18k doesn't mean warm at 2M. You can see that in the 6z GEFS 16 day ensembles. Ridging at 18k feet . N at 5k feet BN at 2M. -EPO induced delivery of source regioned air. 1 caveat though after the 20th and I posted 3 days ago I believed the ridge would pop we will need end up on the right side of the Barroclinic zone otherwise , it's cold, we cut again and the return flow is cold . I believe -EPO patterns love to push HP through the lakes and we have seen its power over the past - years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 11 minutes ago, PB GFI said: One thing of note .The SE ridge is not a killer . The center is not over the lakes . SE ridging at 18k doesn't mean warm at 2M. You can see that in the 6z GEFS 16 day ensembles. Ridging at 18k feet . N at 5k feet BN at 2M. -EPO induced delivery of source regioned air. 1 caveat though after the 20th and I posted 3 days ago I believed the ridge would pop we will need end up on the right side of the Barroclinic zone otherwise , it's cold, we cut again and the return flow is cold . I believe -EPO patterns love to push HP through the lakes and we have seen its power over the past - years Yeah, it all comes down to where the baroclinic zone or gradient sets up as to how much snow potential any given storm can give the coast. We can get lucky in this type of a pattern like we saw in December 2008 and 2013. We just can't handle the amplitude that we had with the near record -AO patterns and storms in December 2009 and 2010 since it will pump the SE Ridge too much. A system ejecting from the SW staying flatter with enough Arctic HP to the North is what we want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 If the troughs continue to dig out west the southeast ridge is going to be trouble for us. The EPS has a nice -epo but the southeast ridge looks to be trouble. It could very well be cold-rain/warm-cold dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 26 out this way. The top layers of the ground are surprisingly solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 30 overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 1:24 PM, forkyfork said: i'd like to see the PV be east of that position in canada. anything that amplifies will be prone to cutting to our west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 6 hours ago, ag3 said: NYC, LGA and JFK still above freezing as of 6am. LMAO - we didn't do it. Tonight we sure will, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Definitely a shock to the system with the wind and artic air. We didn't have anything like this last December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Definitely a shock to the system with the wind and artic air. We didn't have anything like this last December Yep, our coldest day was still in the low 40s. Kinda crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Definitely a shock to the system with the wind and artic air. We didn't have anything like this last December Yup - we didn't get this type weather until like the 1st week of Jan 2016 (which was also the first time KNYC dipped below 32 last winter, also insane). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Temp only up to 38 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, pazzo83 said: LMAO - we didn't do it. Tonight we sure will, though. I did. 31 on both my car and Kestrel handheld a bit after 7. Puddles frozen, top layer of soil was frozen l. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 23 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: I did. 31 on both my car and Kestrel handheld a bit after 7. Puddles frozen, top layer of soil was frozen l. Same here in bed stuy. Frozen puddles everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I'm up in the Poconos and it's 29 degrees with about an inch of frozen snow and ice in the woods and on my decks...What a difference 89 miles of driving makes...The snow cover started just before I reached the Delaware River in N.J.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 18 minutes ago, uncle W said: I'm up in the Poconos and it's 29 degrees with about an inch of frozen snow and ice in the woods and on my decks...What a difference 89 miles of driving makes...The snow cover started just before I reached the Delaware River in N.J.... Snow cover in Hunderton County Nj? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, pazzo83 said: Yup - we didn't get this type weather until like the 1st week of Jan 2016 (which was also the first time KNYC dipped below 32 last winter, also insane). Crazy warm December that was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Snow cover in Hunderton County Nj? Sussex county by the Dingmans ferry bridge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 10 minutes ago, uncle W said: Sussex county by the Dingmans ferry bridge... oh okay. Enjoy the weekend. Euro has 4-6 for your spot in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Temp starting to drop pretty quickly now in the park - we should still hit 32 before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 4 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Temp starting to drop pretty quickly now in the park - we should still hit 32 before midnight. Obs are back up finally too. They just posted a message on fb 5 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 28 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Temp starting to drop pretty quickly now in the park - we should still hit 32 before midnight. These December first freezes are becoming more common for NYC. Similar to the the first below 20 readings in places like POU in December instead of November. I believe the last time POU fell below 20 in October was 1988 just like the last October freeze for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 GFS and NAM are torches for Monday's storm-mostly rain unless you're far N and W and even there flips. Euro and GEM much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 GFS and NAM are torches for Monday's storm-mostly rain unless you're far N and W and even there flips. Euro and GEM much colder.From experience.. GFS and NAM tend to warm the upper and low levels a good hit too much. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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