40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 On November 22, 2016 at 10:48 PM, ORH_wxman said: 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I would agree Isotherm. Good post. The NAO looks to be near neutral give or take. Hopefully dateline ridging and what seems to be a 50/50 low type feature can help out. I'll take my chances with that north of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I like the overall look. It's probably the best chance we've had in years. Sure maybe it could go wrong..but I'd take my chances too. The CFS for once doesn't have a torch for January-March as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I would agree Isotherm. Good post. The NAO looks to be near neutral give or take. Hopefully dateline ridging and what seems to be a 50/50 low type feature can help out. Thanks, and agreed - especially for us, we're going to need more robust poleward ridging if the NAO decides to be hostile (which is largely what I thought for this winter, but there was a chance December could produce a real block). For your area and especially Ray's northward, it could be a very good / active / stormy pattern with temps close to normal or slightly below. December 1970 had strong -NAO blocking coupled with poleward ridging; I don't think we'll be looking at that year. One of the closer matches might be December 2008, though the NAO may not be as favorable as that year either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 40 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Thanks, and agreed - especially for us, we're going to need more robust poleward ridging if the NAO decides to be hostile (which is largely what I thought for this winter, but there was a chance December could produce a real block). For your area and especially Ray's northward, it could be a very good / active / stormy pattern with temps close to normal or slightly below. December 1970 had strong -NAO blocking coupled with poleward ridging; I don't think we'll be looking at that year. One of the closer matches might be December 2008, though the NAO may not be as favorable as that year either. I drew the general analogy to 2008 the other day, as well. May take a bit more latitude than that year...more 12-07 maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 Don't over think it. Get that -EPO and the cold on our side. Transient blocking and an open gulf. One storm at a time . I like our chances very much . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 I dont like the dec. 08 analog. Look a the 500mb anomalies on the previous page...theyre opposite in eastern north america of the modeled pattern on the on the gefs eps and euro weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Don't over think it. Get that -EPO and the cold on our side. Transient blocking and an open gulf. One storm at a time . I like our chances very much . Yup. It's not a latitude pattern in the general sense though it would be tougher NYC south for all snowers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup. It's not a latitude pattern in the general sense though it would be tougher NYC south for all snowers That's climo anyways. We have to get away from referencing monthly values and look at dailies. Transient blocking is as effective . I mean just look at 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 Just now, Ginx snewx said: That's climo anyways. We have to get away from referencing monthly values and look at dailies. Transient blocking is as effective . I mean just look at 2015. The type of modeled pattern showing up after about Day 8 and on is one of overrunning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The type of modeled pattern showing up after about Day 8 and on is one of overrunning Thanks to a -epo. Who knows where the gradient sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Thanks to a -epo. Who knows where the gradient sets up Yeah it might set up in north carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 Climo tells us between NYC and the pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Climo tells us between NYC and the pike 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Climo tells us between NYC and the pike Yea. I was being silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 Oh, I know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said: I dont like the dec. 08 analog. Look a the 500mb anomalies on the previous page...theyre opposite in eastern north america of the modeled pattern on the on the gefs eps and euro weeklies. It's not one of my top analogs either. For the winter as a whole, I preferred 73-74, 75-76, 99-00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 It usually takes a really good pattern to get big snows south of New England before Dec 15-20 or so. It def looks like there will be a higher than normal gradient for temps though so the latitude difference may be more than typical. But we are talking snow chances and so many nuances go into them. Sometimes you get Dec 16, 2007 where the best is pike northward or sometimes you get 12/13/07 where good snows extent into central CT/RI and SE MA. Even further, 12/19/08 got the south coast good though that is getting into the 2nd half of the month. Sometimes you get nothing south of Rt 2. You just don't know. There is where you have to force folks to appreciate probabilistic viewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It usually takes a really good pattern to get big snows south of New England before Dec 15-20 or so. It def looks like there will be a higher than normal gradient for temps though so the latitude difference may be more than typical. But we are talking snow chances and so many nuances go into them. Sometimes you get Dec 16, 2007 where the best is pike northward or sometimes you get 12/13/07 where good snows extent into central CT/RI and SE MA. Even further, 12/19/08 got the south coast good though that is getting into the 2nd half of the month. Sometimes you get nothing south of Rt 2. You just don't know. There is where you have to force folks to appreciate probabilistic viewpoints. Any ideas on where the gradient will set up or is that something you won't know till it happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 Face-palm- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 36 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Any ideas on where the gradient will set up or is that something you won't know till it happens? we should know a few days after it happens, stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 Yeah, From about 43N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 Looks like from about 41N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 Gradient should set up south of my backyard and north of yours, duh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 What gradient and what time? Weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 GFS is having a hard time with the gradient storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Still nothing concrete that is of much interest to most. Still some waiting ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Still nothing concrete that is of much interest to most. Still some waiting ahead. There"s money in the bank by the 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Since I am working I just saw the Euro, holy crap on the epic snow totals for Maine thru Dec 2nd, pretty good for all of Vt 1-2 feet, NNH 1-2 feet and Maine 2-3 feet North of Portland. Just a run but wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Since I am working I just saw the Euro, holy crap on the epic snow totals for Maine thru Dec 2nd, pretty good for all of Vt 1-2 feet, NNH 1-2 feet and Maine 2-3 feet North of Portland. Just a run but wow Oh man that's close...like 0C to -1C at H7/H85/H925 here and a lot of QPF. Wildcat-Sunday River-Sugarloaf are just that extra 1-2C cooler aloft and damn that's a lot of snow next week. Some 36" totals in Maine on the EURO. But yeah wintery week in NNE, even if sleet and freezing rain east of the Greens then getting into snow deeper cold to our NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Scooter's and DT's Dec 4th- 5th SNE storm is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.