USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 I don't mind rain until Christmas, then I mind afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 Nice look to the 12z Euro in the long range. Damn near pinches off the warmth before it gets into the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2016 Author Share Posted November 24, 2016 Am I the only one who remembers this month? Well tamarack does but anyone else? I was 24 years old... http://tunecaster.com/charts/70/week7050.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Am I the only one who remembers this month? Well tamarack does but anyone else? I was 24 years old... http://tunecaster.com/charts/70/week7050.html I already posted a weekly weather map . I was 13 at the time and made hand draw weenie maps. I remember it very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2016 Author Share Posted November 24, 2016 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I already posted a weekly weather map . I was 13 at the time and made hand draw weenie maps. I remember it very well Lol...the hand drawing weenie maps-I drew them until 20 years ago. In fact, for my 37th birthday my wife at the time had a cake made up with a monster low coming up the east coast with heavy snow D.C. To Maine. Of course it was a pipe dream as I was still in California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Lol...the hand drawing weenie maps-I drew them until 20 years ago. In fact, for my 37th birthday my wife at the time had a cake made up with a monster low coming up the east coast with heavy snow D.C. To Maine. Of course it was a pipe dream as I was still in California. I have some of my daily reports but lost everything else ironically in a flood at my parents in 83. My biggest loss was picture documentation of 78 from inception at URI with windswept flurries to TSSN at night to 25ft plus drifts across RT3 in Ashaway and Rt 110 in Kingston RI. Nice EPO dump LR, it's coming right on schedule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 3 hours ago, weathafella said: Am I the only one who remembers this month? Well tamarack does but anyone else? I was 24 years old... http://tunecaster.com/charts/70/week7050.html I was 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 After this week , Euro weeklies drawn up in Ray Ray's man beast shed. We -EPO, trough, heights BN weeks 2-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: After this week , Euro weeklies drawn up in Ray Ray's man beast shed. We -EPO, trough, heights BN weeks 2-6 And Happy Thanksgiving to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 16 minutes ago, mitchnick said: And Happy Thanksgiving to all! Temps next 46 days ave -2/3 AN qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: I already posted a weekly weather map . I was 13 at the time and made hand draw weenie maps. I remember it very well this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 Week 4 was ok. Not sure how week 5 and 6 are. I didn't think week 4 was a pants tent but it's ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 57 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: After this week , Euro weeklies drawn up in Ray Ray's man beast shed. We -EPO, trough, heights BN weeks 2-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 I'm guessing that if winter comes in a hurry on December 4th on the EURO, that the December 6th storm looks to be snow to the coastline on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 EURO sends the arctic southward and southeastward from northern Canada into the US eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Week 4 was ok. Not sure how week 5 and 6 are. I didn't think week 4 was a pants tent but it's ok. Get naked 5/6 week 4 was still BN, probably the stormiest weeniest run in a couple of years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 That is awesome Steve, what is Christmas weather like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: That is awesome Steve, what is Christmas weather like? Too early for any specifics, generally looks good but when looking at ENS weeklies you look at general hemispheric patterns which on a whole look very good for a change . The EPS 16 day at the end of the run does show your cross polar setup beginning , wether we get into Arctic air eventually is questionable but we certainly look to get into a colder regime. Does not preclude wet systems only increases the chance for primarily snow events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 The EURO operational was already showing the invasion by December 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Get naked 5/6 week 4 was still BN, probably the stormiest weeniest run in a couple of years Well good to see anyways. I would always caution those forecasts that far out, but better than a black hole over AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well good to see anyways. I would always caution those forecasts that far out, but better than a black hole over AK. Week 5 and 6 were good. Classic pna/-epo/-nao type pattern...way far out obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 Nice nina pattern. -NAO disappears as par for the course with big model -NAO bias, but a good dateline ridge. NNE rejoices with that look for sure. Hopefully SNE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2016 Author Share Posted November 25, 2016 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nice nina pattern. -NAO disappears as par for the course with big model -NAO bias, but a good dateline ridge. NNE rejoices with that look for sure. Hopefully SNE too. The little oscillations east and west are the difference between us crying in our beer or popping champagne corks in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 1 minute ago, weathafella said: The little oscillations east and west are the difference between us crying in our beer or popping champagne corks in SNE. Certainly seems active. Hopefully we can keep that trough near Newfoundland to help with convergence. At the very least the source region chills off so hopefully a few front enders. The pattern is a hell of a lot better than recent ones we've seen. But, details TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Certainly seems active. Hopefully we can keep that trough near Newfoundland to help with convergence. At the very least the source region chills off so hopefully a few front enders. The pattern is a hell of a lot better than recent ones we've seen. But, details TBD. Dec 5th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 CFS with a cold US for Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 I like our chances going forward, Just get some cold and precip in here and the rest will take care of itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 The following is a post I made elsewhere in a NYC forum; however, there is relevance here. Latitude will be a benefit in this pattern. I think - over the next few weeks - NYC, coastal SNE southward should be combating temperature issues. For the first half of December, it looks like a more conducive interior Northeast pattern. I think tropospheric AO/NAO domain blocking won't be impressive (at least through mid Dec) and thus the SE ridge will be an issue between 39-42N. "I too remain congruous with my winter outlook ideas in that mid December-early January should produce accumulating snowfall opportunities. Whether that resultant pattern is one which yields a very snowy outcome or a mediocre one is indeterminate. However, reservations about the upcoming pattern should still be broached to maintain scientific objectivity in the discourse. Regarding vortex intensification, 60N zonal winds at 100-150hpa will be strengthening to near / above normal levels in early December, contrary to the significantly repressed vortex further up the atmospheric column. Thus, there will be a bit more decoupling in terms of geopotential heights as we enter December, and the tropospheric blocking signal will be rather muted / unimpressive for at least the first 10 days of December. That signal may alter as December progresses; contingent upon other forcing mechanisms. Note the ECMWF ensemble forecast for a neutralizing AO and NAO in December w/ error bars into positive territory. This is supported by expected strengthening zonal winds near the top of the troposphere, z100 - 150. Remember that the actual NAM / NAO values are recorded circa 500mb, so the most integral zonal wind variations are really 100mb and lower. When examined in conjunction w/ the Pacific evolution, the pattern will be conducive for the interior; Atl/Arctic blocking will be insufficient for the coast particularly in light of climatological issues prior to mid December. So yes, while the AO and NAO may technically be negative the first 10 days of December (and that was expected) it could only be slightly negative, preferentially biased toward neutral or potentially even slightly positive. Point being, the forcing mechanism for the cooler regime once into the first half of December will be the AAM/trop forcing/strat induced poleward dateline ridging. The poorer Atl coupled w/ climatology will mean it's difficult for the coast through Dec 15. Again, whether we're very active snow wise or just mediocre Dec 15-early Jan will be contingent upon Pac maintenance and tropospheric blocking evolution/progression. It is incontrovertible that the temperature regime will be cooling relative to normal for most of the US in December." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Nice nina pattern. -NAO disappears as par for the course with big model -NAO bias, but a good dateline ridge. NNE rejoices with that look for sure. Hopefully SNE too. Make that hopefully NW Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 I would agree Isotherm. Good post. The NAO looks to be near neutral give or take. Hopefully dateline ridging and what seems to be a 50/50 low type feature can help out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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