dryslot Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Gfs total opposite?Not as good as the Euro, Still had some snow but further NW into the elevated areas and far northern Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 1 hour ago, Isotherm said: Which is why - especially from coastal SNE southward - sufficient downstream blocking is a prerequisite for favorably tracking short waves. With a poleward ridge / concomitant W US trough, there will be a propensity for individual short waves pushing warmth up the coast. The ECMWF ensembles generally lose the NAO/AO support after December 7th which would be problematic for coastal SNE southward. Some of the guidance suggestive of rapidly strengthening zonal winds up at 10hpa would be consistent with a neutralizing NAO/AO, but we'll see. Like I said yesterday, I'd be fairly optimistic if I lived in interior SNE northward over the next few weeks. That end of the first week of Dec interests me a little for the coast if we can get a short wave to eject eastward into the 50/50 low/-NAO induced confluence. We will see, let's revisit this by Dec15th. Big time colder and lots of moisture . Transient blocking and boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Cmon man you know better than this. Things can pop in the upcoming pattern. As Scott says this is the best looking Dec pattern coming up up in years. Negative EPO can deliver and usually does. Sure.. things can pop. But like I said....pattern isn't perfect, and things have to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster17 Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Something dawned on me as it felt like it's been hard to get cold and snowy Decembers lately. Felt like Early Spring was snowier. So figured I check... Sure enough.. Bridgeport, CT has had more snow in March than December in 4 of the last 5yrs. December has had more snow than March only 7 of the last 18yrs. So it's been Snowier in March than December in recent times The normal snowfall is the same for both months. 5.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 I'm not pessimistic.....but I think we need to keep our pants on. May be a bit yet- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Euro mean for Whites and Maine is over a foot. Base building heading into consistent winter. About time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 The 11-15 day really isn't a gradient look. We don't have anomalous heights off the SE coast. There is a mean trough axis off of Nova Scotia that sort of knocks heights closer to normal in the southeast. The other possible thing is that we have "ruler flow." This means possible cool and dry with little amplification. That's something really tough to determine, but some signs of it. Regardless, the 11-15 day is cool overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 1 hour ago, NorEaster17 said: Something dawned on me as it felt like it's been hard to get cold and snowy Decembers lately. Felt like Early Spring was snowier. So figured I check... Sure enough.. Bridgeport, CT has had more snow in March than December in 4 of the last 5yrs. December has had more snow than March only 7 of the last 18yrs. So it's been Snowier in March than December in recent times The normal snowfall is the same for both months. 5.1" Depends on one's location. In my 18 winters here in the foothills, December has been snowier than March 12 times, and averages 2.2" more, even though my snowiest for any month was in March, 2001. However, I can agree about the cold. While December has been colder overall (no surprise there), it has had only one morning at least down to -20, while I've had 11 such mornings in March. Looking more and more like a very rainy week coming up for our time in the woods with the forest certification auditors. May be a different story in Northern Maine, with access depending on where active harvests mean plowed roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Just getting a chance to look at 12z Euro and EPS stuff after Christmas Treeing all day.. Its going to get damn wintry/snowy in our corner of the nation by late next weekend and beyond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just getting a chance to look at 12z Euro and EPS stuff after Christmas Treeing all day.. Its going to get damn wintry/snowy in our corner of the nation by late next weekend and beyond Will that include Souther NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Just now, 512high said: Will that include Souther NH? Absolutely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 2 minutes ago, 512high said: Will that include Souther NH? No...snow in n CT, rain in s NH....especially during la ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Ray what are you talking about? Rain in Southern NH but snow in CT in La Ninas? I hope that is a joke? Anyways, does anybody have an idea on what type of system to use to monitor the weather outside on your desktop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 26, 2016 Author Share Posted November 26, 2016 Slow down James-you're over the falls..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Im feeling great in nne and atlantic canada...good in cne...okay in sne...not sure what else moee to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Kevin and threads going downhill are synonymous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Hmm. What are the thoughts on the GFS being mostly rain vs the Euro? Model showdown? Too inexperienced here to have any sense of what one might lean towards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Sure.. things can pop. But like I said....pattern isn't perfect, and things have to work out.So basically a crap shoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: So basically a crap shoot Depends on how you look at it. Snowfall is always a crapshoot. The overall look is decent for you after this week. Determining the small scale nuances that produce cyclogenesis in a favorable spot, is impossible. All you can do is look at the overall big picture and let things fall into place. Basically just have to go along for the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 I like the storm chance for the December 5th either day of the 5th leading to a snowfall. GFS and EURO show a piece of polar vortex moving through the northwest flow and amplifying as it moves through the region leading to cyclogenesis off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 948 mb with that warm eddy. Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 No Ray, it takes more than the warm SST pattern to light a match to those Sea Surface Temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 The distance between the warm SST pattern and the cold SST pattern leads to a gradient. That gradient as a storm with H5 energy present with a negatively tilting trough axis overhead can lead to explosive cyclogenesis as polar/arctic air pours over these warm SSTs and a storm is present, it will ignite the warm SSTs south of 40N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 This Gulf Stream gradient can lead to more explosive cyclogenesis leading to the models being off on pressure of the storm by a few mbs. Instead of 970mb it is 965mb or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Those SSTs are gonna light a liquid match over the Cape for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 26, 2016 Author Share Posted November 26, 2016 Hey James-your snow climo is akin to Montalk Point, not Caribou. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 I agree Scott, that Labrador current could do quite the damage to the SST pattern to the northeast of Cape Cod leading to a cooler SST regime on northeasterly winds, but also cut down on the OES impacts this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Right now I would prefer a monster storm with rain and wind that just rain, but it needs a polar air transport over those warm SSTs to ignite the match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 I'm not expecting a big snowstorm in the near future, if we come across Christmas week with a storm I would be happy to wait until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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