Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: People still use laptops? Those are almost extinct i have an iphone... i use it as a telephone pretty much exclusively. i don't stand there leaning against street corner poles, with a single knee bent ... one hand in my pocket while the other one pings away furious with single thumb bumps ...slaved to portable technology. i find that common theme about recent culture similar to that STG episode, "The Game" - firstly, it's annoying. above all else, it is not as easy to do that as it is to type. that said, ...obviously most don't like typing. furthermore, most don't like having to work and they see quality writing and expanded contribution of any kind, as work. it's just part of the on-going erosion of virtue in pre-fab culture of instant gratification nimrods but don't fret! one day, a solar storm will knock the grid down to mid-evil times and all you numb-nuts ...dumbed down by years of apathy and lost virtue will exit the stage because all your skills are one dimensionally locked to dependent on phones. dark sarcasm aside ... i do think the greater portable device corporation has drilled into a kind of native wiring in people that slaves them ...almost addiction-like. endless money suck - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah ... i was noticing that and comparing it to your 'euro is warm' post from earlier - haha. glad you noticed Well it is the warmest of all guidance so I mean it in a relative sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: Well it is the warmest of all guidance so I mean it in a relative sense. oh i know - just given schizer - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 I'm with Scooter in that I don't find ensemble snow maps really all that useful. I suppose they are not useless either...but they don't really give a whole lot of additional information that looking at the H5 pattern already reveals. I don't hate them though...just don't find much use for them, but I'm not gonna hate on those who use them. I tend to despise the snow maps as a serious tool a lot more on operational guidance when we are dissecting a storm threat. Those are really annoying to me because they aren't really showing you "snow"....it is dependent on some algorithm in the model which can be corrupted by whatever assumption the model makes such as low level warming (if the model warms the low levels too fast, then poof goes your snow accumulations on the algorithm) or mid-level warming (sometimes the algorithms don't slice back enough in the sleet zone). The snow maps are mostly just eye candy for entertainment purposes....hence the name "clown maps" I came up with years ago when referring to them. Anyways, I agree with Tip about favoring these overrunning strung out waves more than wound up systems....this fast flow getting funneled through the height gradient with our Caribbean/SE heat ridge to the south well want to dampen out any attempts to really deepen in the upper levels. This actually may work in our favor as already noted...kind of like we have seen in some previous December overrunning events. One thing to look for is how the position of the high trends...or the confluence ahead of the system. If we can trend that a bit NW more toward N ME, then that will help on two fronts...it will assist in locking in the low level cold better and it will also assist in aiding frontogenetic forcing as the isentropic lift occurs from the SW...so that would be one thing to root for if you are trying to maximize the snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Well anyways, looks like 2 legit chances of something other than these nuisance deals, over the next 10-12 days. In between...looks like a heck of a cold shot. I really hope we don't go warm just in time for xmas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Weak sauce for monday on the 12z GFS waves stays pretty progressive and weak as it moves offshore and east of the delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Weak sauce for monday on the 12z GFS waves stays pretty progressive and weak as it moves offshore and east of the delmarva Try using the model thread for specific threats. I'll pin it so it's more visible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Try using the model thread for specific threats. I'll pin it so it's more visible. Good, Move it over if you wish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: People still use laptops? Those are almost extinct Try doing serious photo processing on a phone! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 hour ago, J Paul Gordon said: Try doing serious photo processing on a phone! lol lol...or a glorified oversized one at that. As one who work for one of the largest IT shops in western New England, I can tell you that laptops are very much still used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Looks like the post-20th relaxation might not relax as much ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Been a subtle shift east with H5 anomalies into AK. Lets hope that is valid. That will help us out. Also, the PV seems to not want to go far into the US. Another good thing I have noticed today as that PV stays in srn Canada, supplies cold, but not suppressed storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Sometimes when PV dives into US, the return flow as PV lifts out, junks us for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Been a subtle shift east with H5 anomalies into AK. Lets hope that is valid. That will help us out. Also, the PV seems to not want to go far into the US. Another good thing I have noticed today as that PV stays in srn Canada, supplies cold, but not suppressed storm track. Never bought the cold and dry mantra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Been a subtle shift east with H5 anomalies into AK. Lets hope that is valid. That will help us out. Also, the PV seems to not want to go far into the US. Another good thing I have noticed today as that PV stays in srn Canada, supplies cold, but not suppressed storm track. It's more of a true EPO ridge now vs biased toward the WPO region. Look at the height difference in AK too at like D13 or 14 compared to D15 a couple days ago...trending much higher. Fast pattern breakdown FTL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's more of a true EPO ridge now vs biased toward the WPO region. Look at the height difference in AK too at like D13 or 14 compared to D15 a couple days ago...trending much higher. Fast pattern breakdown FTL... Yeah definitely. I like that subtle shift. Although in general, I'd be happy with any higher heights from Bering Sea on east. Certainly nothing I see that notes some sort of pattern change right now anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah definitely. I like that subtle shift. Although in general, I'd be happy with any higher heights from Bering Sea on east. Certainly nothing I see that notes some sort of pattern change right now anyways. Yeah agreed...it's not like the WPO ridge was bad...we'll take it, but if we can bias it more toward EPO side, even better. I'm sure eventually we'll see a breakdown in a few weeks, but the bias of rushing in a change is almost certainly at work every time we get a "semi ugly" end of the EPS run. It seems to either stay near the end of the run or disappear completely (like today) in subsequent runs....ditto GEFS whenever they show something. Your tropical monitoring seemed to catch this too...it wasn't really arguing for that quick breakdown that we saw on a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah agreed...it's not like the WPO ridge was bad...we'll take it, but if we can bias it more toward EPO side, even better. I'm sure eventually we'll see a breakdown in a few weeks, but the bias of rushing in a change is almost certainly at work every time we get a "semi ugly" end of the EPS run. It seems to either stay near the end of the run or disappear completely (like today) in subsequent runs....ditto GEFS whenever they show something. Your tropical monitoring seemed to catch this too...it wasn't really arguing for that quick breakdown that we saw on a few runs. I was talking to Ventrice about that. His tools are pointing to a colder nrn tier Jan too. It's interesting to see the differences in the analog pattern given the current tropical forcing state, vs the analog pattern at the end of the ensemble runs. It shows you how the models always propagate the forcing too quickly to the east. I definitely think the RMM MJO stuff has a bias for that...not to mention it needs models to properly forecast all those variables that go into those plots. So yeah, the signal may weaken at some point...but there is a low frequency standing wave pattern that seems stable in the maritime continent for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I was talking to Ventrice about that. His tools are pointing to a colder nrn tier Jan too. It's interesting to see the differences in the analog pattern given the current tropical forcing state, vs the analog pattern at the end of the ensemble runs. It shows you how the models always propagate the forcing too quickly to the east. I definitely think the RMM MJO stuff has a bias for that...not to mention it needs models to properly forecast all those variables that go into those plots. So yeah, the signal may weaken at some point...but there is a low frequency standing wave pattern that seems stable in the maritime continent for now. Yeah that's pretty cool stuff. It seems like a much more Nina-esque pattern from that standpoint...the big dateline ridging (rather than a monster Aleutian low)...we aren't in a full blown Nina, but parts of the tropics and NH are definitely acting more like it. Even the CFS is keeping Canada cold and we know how much that model loves to furnace massive chunks of the high latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that's pretty cool stuff. It seems like a much more Nina-esque pattern from that standpoint...the big dateline ridging (rather than a monster Aleutian low)...we aren't in a full blown Nina, but parts of the tropics and NH are definitely acting more like it. Even the CFS is keeping Canada cold and we know how much that model loves to furnace massive chunks of the high latitudes. Ha, I noticed that too. If that model gets cold...I think that's a confidence booster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Back to the Torch Thursday on weeklies...lol. Well maybe not torch, but they break down the pattern quickly during week 2. which is strange after today's 12z EPS (EPS is worth more skill during week 2 anyways). Seems like Thursday's have been initialized by the warministas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Back to the Torch Thursday on weeklies...lol. Well maybe not torch, but they break down the pattern quickly during week 2. which is strange after today's 12z EPS (EPS is worth more skill during week 2 anyways). Seems like Thursday's have been initialized by the warministas. Monthlies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Monthlies? Even Milke V said toss weeklies. Haven't looked. I should take a peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 GFS runs grinchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Possible torch for Xmas weekWouldn't be xmas without torch or cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Ensembles all pointing to a strong -EPO thru the latter part of the month..Good news for cold delivery..With continued active storm track...very wintry look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ensembles all pointing to a strong -EPO thru the latter part of the month..Good news for cold delivery..With continued active storm track...very wintry look You think those negate the solution op GFS gives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 4 minutes ago, Googlymoogly said: You think those negate the solution op GFS gives? The op runs should not be diagnosed for anything. The ensembles are definitely more wintry. In fact, do yourself a favor and not lolling at an op run past day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The op runs should not be diagnosed for anything. The ensembles are definitely more wintry. In fact, do yourself a favor and not lolling at an op run past day 7. As you said it looks like we ride the line with cold near by. We really need these troughs to stop digging into the west and remain flat as they come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The op runs should not be diagnosed for anything. The ensembles are definitely more wintry. In fact, do yourself a favor and not lolling at an op run past day 7. Point taken! There's something so defined about OP runs as opposed to the more esoteric, nebulous ensembles that are appealing for laymen like myself. But I hear what you're saying.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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