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December pattern/forecast thread

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

How many torching cutters has SNE had in late December the past 10 years?   It probably just seems more frequent than actually is the case. 

Data for December 25 - NORTH FOSTER 1 E, RI
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature
Min Temperature
Precipitation
Snowfall
Snow Depth
2000-12-25 21 6 0.00 0.0 2
2001-12-25 36 22 0.00 0.0 0
2002-12-25 34 25 0.90 3.4 3
2003-12-25 50 31 0.06 0.0 0
2004-12-25 30 16 0.00 0.0 0
2005-12-25 42 30 0.19 0.0 3
2006-12-25 42 28 0.20 0.0 0
2007-12-25 39 25 0.00 0.0 6
2008-12-25 52 26 0.41 0.0 2
2009-12-25 37 24 T 0.0 8
2010-12-25 32 17 0.00 0.0 T
2011-12-25 40 14 0.01 T 0
2012-12-25 36 25 0.10 0.6 1
2013-12-25 25 14 T T 0
2014-12-25 59 40 0.33 0.0 0
2015-12-25 64 49 0.00 0.0 0
Summary
Maximum Temperature
Maximum Average Minimum Percent of Years
>=100° F >=90° F >=50° F <=32° F
64 39.9 21 0 0 25% 25%
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klw

klw

Posted
Posted

My least favorite Grinch storm was in 07.  We were living in Bethlehem NH at the time and had just shy of two feet on the ground.  I think the storm was on the 23rd but I could be wrong.  I wiped out the entire base but did drop an inch or two at the end to at least leave us with some snow for Christmas.  Storm took down tree, power was out.  Lots of fun or not.

 

Fortunately we are talking 384 hours out so there is a chance it isn't locked in yet.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, klw said:

My least favorite Grinch storm was in 07.  We were living in Bethlehem NH at the time and had just shy of two feet on the ground.  I think the storm was on the 23rd but I could be wrong.  I wiped out the entire base but did drop an inch or two at the end to at least leave us with some snow for Christmas.  Storm took down tree, power was out.  Lots of fun or not.

That's weird you lost all your snow in '07 in NH...in ORH, we had about 21" OTG prior to the Grinch storm but still had easily 7-9" afterward. I would think you would lose even less than we did in that storm. Are you sure you aren't thinking of another year?

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Googlymoogly

Googlymoogly

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, klw said:

My least favorite Grinch storm was in 07.  We were living in Bethlehem NH at the time and had just shy of two feet on the ground.  I think the storm was on the 23rd but I could be wrong.  I wiped out the entire base but did drop an inch or two at the end to at least leave us with some snow for Christmas.  Storm took down tree, power was out.  Lots of fun or not.

 

Fortunately we are talking 384 hours out so there is a chance it isn't locked in yet.

DID previous runs evolve like that?

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klw

klw

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's weird you lost all your snow in '07 in NH...in ORH, we had about 21" OTG prior to the Grinch storm but still had easily 7-9" afterward. I would think you would lose even less than we did in that storm. Are you sure you aren't thinking of another year?

It was either 07 or 08 as those were the only two years we lived in that location but I am fairly sure it 07 as my memory is that it was my parents first visit after we moved there and they came up that day only to have their inn be out of power and all the snow to be gone.

 

Here is the link to Whitefield's almanac for 12/23/07.  It does not show much rain but hours near 50F.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KHIE/2007/12/23/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Whitefield&req_state=NH&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=03598&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999

 

Sorry I didn't mean to take this too off topic.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that's a nicer look on the Euro than previous runs. Tries to even redevelop offshore late in the game.

00z EPS was really baggy MSLP. And when the mean primary is well north and west into Canada I tend to think better chance at secondary redevelopment. I mean it's one thing if the primary rips through ITH, but another altogether if it goes through GRB.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, klw said:

It was either 07 or 08 as those were the only two years we lived in that location but I am fairly sure it 07 as my memory is that it was my parents first visit after we moved there and they came up that day only to have their inn be out of power and all the snow to be gone.

 

Here is the link to Whitefield's almanac for 12/23/07.  It does not show much rain but hours near 50F.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KHIE/2007/12/23/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Whitefield&req_state=NH&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=03598&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999

 

Sorry I didn't mean to take this too off topic.

Whitefield is a downslope disaster. I'm not surprised.

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backedgeapproaching

backedgeapproaching

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, klw said:

It was either 07 or 08 as those were the only two years we lived in that location but I am fairly sure it 07 as my memory is that it was my parents first visit after we moved there and they came up that day only to have their inn be out of power and all the snow to be gone.

 

Here is the link to Whitefield's almanac for 12/23/07.  It does not show much rain but hours near 50F.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KHIE/2007/12/23/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Whitefield&req_state=NH&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=03598&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999

 

Sorry I didn't mean to take this too off topic.

Looking at that you see some nasty SE downsloping winds with temps near 50F...that has snowpack eating written all over it.

 

edit: ninja'd by Scott

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Now it just wouldn't be christmas if it did not show one, Maybe he will have "Stole" another one

Using my arbitrary Grinch definition - snow-melting rain event during the period Dec. 21-28 - my 18 Decembers here have featured 11 years with Grinch storms plus 3 more that would've Grinched but there was no snow for them to melt.  With antecedent snow, last year would have seen 2 Grinches.  That leaves only 4 non-Grinch years, and one of those (2013) was a ZR near-Grinch.

If that cold verifies for week 2 and there's snow cover, I'd probably see minus teens.  Barring overnight winds, a couple nights like that and we have safe ice almost everywhere.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Using my arbitrary Grinch definition - snow-melting rain event during the period Dec. 21-28 - my 18 Decembers here have featured 11 years with Grinch storms plus 3 more that would've Grinched but there was no snow for them to melt.  With antecedent snow, last year would have seen 2 Grinches.  That leaves only 4 non-Grinch years, and one of those (2013) was a ZR near-Grinch.

If that cold verifies for week 2 and there's snow cover, I'd probably see minus teens.  Barring overnight winds, a couple nights like that and we have safe ice almost everywhere.

2007? 2009?

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's weird you lost all your snow in '07 in NH...in ORH, we had about 21" OTG prior to the Grinch storm but still had easily 7-9" afterward. I would think you would lose even less than we did in that storm. Are you sure you aren't thinking of another year?

I think he's correct, based on what happened at my place.  12/24/07 had nearly 1" RA with mid 40s, and only the near-3" LE in my 19" pack going in allowed the damage to stop at 13".  In 2008 we had the smallest of the 11 Grinches, with light rain and upper 30s on Christmas Day - also lost 5" (19 down to 14) but that includes settling of the 15" that fell on 21-22.

 

2007? 2009?

In 2009 the Grinch arrived two days after Christmas, with 1.5" RA at upper 30s.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Interesting comparison I did from the H5 anomalies at hr 360 from the 12/1/16 12z run to the current 12/6/16 12z run. The biggest trend I see is the Bering Sea ridge and west coast iof NAMR have much higher heights than the runs 5 days ago. Probably goes along with the models rushing to break down patterns. The NAO was also estimated too low from 5 days ago, so that continues to be voodoo on models. For the time being, the AO and NAO will hover near and above the neutral values it seems. But the Pacific will drive the bus as usual.

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