ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said: Can anyone explain why we seemingly can't buy a sustained period of -NAO during the winter months since 2010-11? The answer is actually "probably not"...the NAO is not very well understood on that type of timescale in terms of attribution. We did have a good one in the latter couple month of 2012-2013...but otherwise your claim still stands. I think it may somehow be related to the North Atlantic going frigid after spring 2013...but that probably isn't the whole explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: Can anyone explain why we seemingly can't buy a sustained period of -NAO during the winter months since 2010-11? Who cares 12/13 13/14 14/15 proved that. Get us the cold established ,it will snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The answer is actually "probably not"...the NAO is not very well understood on that type of timescale in terms of attribution. We did have a good one in the latter couple month of 2012-2013...but otherwise your claim still stands. I think it may somehow be related to the North Atlantic going frigid after spring 2013...but that probably isn't the whole explanation. Thanks Will. It's just annoying that the background state of arguably the most important teleconnection for us to get snow has been + when we want it to be -. So I take it we're in a -AMO whereas we were in a +AMO at the beginning of the decade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Who cares 12/13 13/14 14/15 proved that. Get us the cold established ,it will snow. Very true Ginx. That is a pretty small sample size though I'd rather get the NAO on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I don't remember that, thought it was the great ORH Messenger mid level magic storm The storm I really remember it from was the March 5, 2015 storm. The models were bringing good QPF right into pike region and we we hated not being 40 miles south of that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Just now, H2Otown_WX said: Very true Ginx. That is a pretty small sample size though I'd rather get the NAO on our side. Monthly values are bunk, go back over time and look at the dailies. Transient blocking worked time after time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The storm I really remember it from was the March 5, 2015 storm. The models were bringing good QPF right into pike region and we we hated not being 40 miles south of that line. Yeah and 3/15/15 the Modicum Mauler Kevin said would be widespread warning levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 RGEM makes sense to me for WNE , can't see that much energy just going poof, not a big deal but I think from the NW CT Berks to WSNH could repeat today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: RGEM makes sense to me for WNE , can't see that much energy just going poof, not a big deal but I think from the NW CT Berks to WSNH could repeat today What a convoluted forecast. NWS saying 1-3" here while news stations are saying rain. Latest NAM and GFS are basically nothing regardless of precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Just now, H2Otown_WX said: What a convoluted forecast. NWS saying 1-3" here while news stations are saying rain. Latest NAM and GFS are basically nothing regardless of precip type. Just based on model output, you can see how they are having boundary layer warmth issues. The highest totals are in and up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Models leaning towards a more amplified pattern come mid month onward. After December 15th the PNA goes + and the NAO goes - without the PV to interfere with northern stream development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 12 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Models leaning towards a more amplified pattern come mid month onward. After December 15th the PNA goes + and the NAO goes - without the PV to interfere with northern stream development. I'd be careful about drawing conclusions from the models after the 15th. Even if the ensembles are showing that in the 11-15 day range, we all know how volatile the GEFS are, and how they like to make up phantom -NAOs. I can't comment on the EPS as I have no access but they also change drastically run-to-run at such a long lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Yeah all I see is potential, but again where have we seen this pattern before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 NAM backed way off as suspected..but RGEM has increased amounts a bit with 1-2 as far east as ORH Everyone's new favorite model the 3km NAM..Interesting little blue speck over CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 thoughts on overnight runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 9 minutes ago, Googlymoogly said: thoughts on overnight runs? Nothing really changed in terms of the broad picture. Storm track TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Definitely looks like the type of pattern were predictability of individual storms will be lower than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 29 minutes ago, Googlymoogly said: thoughts on overnight runs? Cold seems like it wants to force things south . I'd toss any GFS cutter nonsense at the least maybe a swfe Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Sigh. You can't toss anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 KMOT, wish we were there http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMOT.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 12z RGEM, Nickel dime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 18 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z RGEM, Nickel dime. I'm not expecting accumulation in the valley. Most modeling likes NW CT or perhaps Kevin points north in NE CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: I'm not expecting accumulation in the valley. Most modeling likes NW CT or perhaps Kevin points north in NE CT. Those areas may still see snow, They look to stay just cold enough, South of there torches though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 1 minute ago, CTValleySnowMan said: I'm not expecting accumulation in the valley. Most modeling likes NW CT or perhaps Kevin points north in NE CT. Yeah I think an inch or so here should do it. I envision it starting as wet flakes and starting to stick around 33/34 then dropping to 32 with some slush on road . 3km NAM has it outlined pretty well. Some of the very highest hills up over 1k probably get 2 inches as well as the NW hills. Could see Norfolk pull 3 as they get more qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 12 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: The answer is actually "probably not"...the NAO is not very well understood on that type of timescale in terms of attribution. We did have a good one in the latter couple month of 2012-2013...but otherwise your claim still stands. I think it may somehow be related to the North Atlantic going frigid after spring 2013...but that probably isn't the whole explanation. It's an interesting supposition - somewhat hearkens to the themohaline cycle theory, how a break-down in the saline subduction process might slow/halt the 'draw' of surface waters N and that subsequently means the the G-sting slows ..etc etc... 'Course, not saying that's the culprit behind cold water/sans -NAO's...just that the idea's been out there for a couple decades anyway. Additionally, the hypothesis extrapolates that amid all the GW fervor we suddenly find at some point out there in time that eastern Canada and western Europe go counter-intuitively colder in the winter months and have their summers tempered. If so... i think of that as an interim 'speed bump' along a longer Terraforming ... we go up, than conditionally, regions go down, then the whole of thing is way up way out in generations or something. On a separate note, I have trouble believing the N. Atlantic SST layout as being greatly contributory to the NAO (though I wouldn't tend to think it's 0, either). The problem I have with that is the 'lop-over' effect. Forcing is always downstream of source in the mid and high latitudes of the atmosphere; which makes entirely solid arithmetic sense when we consider that ambient motion base-line state is west to east. But case in point, the EPO for example has nothing to do with the land-sea-air interfacing over top of Alaska and surrounding Berring Sea/GOA and so forth..the advent of blocking or not in that vicinity is directed there by what's going on up stream with both marine sub-continent and Asia terminating their influences downstream acros the Pacific...modulated further by the whole Pacific SST (ENSO/...PDO... as these support or off-set R-wave configurations in both time and space. yadda yadda yadda.. It can probably be a fantastic PHD venture for someone with good grades. heh. otherwise, just another sort of muse of intellectual passing, a curiosity by another proletariat with a wasted college degree ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 10 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: I'm not expecting accumulation in the valley. Most modeling likes NW CT or perhaps Kevin points north in NE CT. i only see a single nickle there... should be 12Z RGEM with pennies... j/k... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 GFS getting a clue, this wasn't just wasting away to flurries in the interior. Keep building them bases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Pretty stout primary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: GFS getting a clue, this wasn't just wasting away to flurries in the interior. Keep building them bases It went from .01 to .05. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It went from .01 to .05. i will say watch the RGEM for WNE if you are from there, if you are East of 91 just close the shades Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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