weathafella Posted November 22, 2016 Author Share Posted November 22, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: This year we white the bird Freezer burn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Just now, weathafella said: Freezer burn? Snow TGiving morn FTYW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 On 11/21/2016 at 7:16 AM, weathafella said: Speaking of gradients-let's channel December 1970. funny Jerry that crossed my mind this afternoon then I saw this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: The following recent winters had torching cutters in early December: 2014-2015, 2013-2014, 2012-2013, 2010-2011, 2008-2009..... I won't keep going, but it's not abnormal and it's not some "sign" that winter is going to suck if we get one....if you want to b**ch about cutters anyway, go do it in the banter thread. There will likely be chances for winter wx though with a pretty strong -NAO with the blocking centered over NE Canada through the early part of the month. you can add Dec 70 to that list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup the blocking is there. My hunch is there's some swfe's and maybe a redeveloper or 2 mixed in with a screamer. Lots of variance but there are some def snow threats over next few weeks. Should also remind weenies.. the Tgiving storm at one time was modeled as Torchgiving screamer. Now many of us in SNE will lay an inch or 2 down early morning followed by a bit of icing and spending the day in the low- mid 30's. So moral is.. take anything past day 6 with suspiciousness You mean the time you said 70s Tday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 December 08 is number one around these parts. Man I'd give my you know what for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Scott what about DEC 2010? We got 13" from the December 20th 2010 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: You mean the time you said 70s Tday? Are you concerned about next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 10 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Scott what about DEC 2010? We got 13" from the December 20th 2010 event. I mean for the month. In my local area, 08 is tops. Dec 70 is a close second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Oh I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: The following recent winters had torching cutters in early December: 2014-2015, 2013-2014, 2012-2013, 2010-2011, 2008-2009..... I won't keep going, but it's not abnormal and it's not some "sign" that winter is going to suck if we get one....if you want to b**ch about cutters anyway, go do it in the banter thread. There will likely be chances for winter wx though with a pretty strong -NAO with the blocking centered over NE Canada through the early part of the month. And the December 2010 cutter came after an epic upslope event as well measured in feet in the jackpot areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Are you concerned about next week? Talk to me at climo start of winter, 3rd week of December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 7 hours ago, tamarack said: In my area, every early December 2008 on had at least one torch-deluge, except 2009 and 09-10 is a hissing and a byword among Maine weenies. I like our chances this year. I like our chances as well this winter season, And cutters are part of the transitioning periods from one pattern to another generally so i don't have as much an issue with them, And 09-10................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 2 hours ago, dryslot said: I like our chances as well this winter season, And cutters are part of the transitioning periods from one pattern to another generally so i don't have as much an issue with them, And 09-10................... I've burned a lot more wood so far this year than last Oct-Nov.. I'm feeling confident about a good interior NE winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I've burned a lot more wood so far this year than last Oct-Nov.. I'm feeling confident about a good interior NE winter. Certainly off to a better start for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 I feel good about a later winter for SNE coastal plain and a healthy Christmas Nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: December 08 is number one around these parts. Man I'd give my you know what for that. Dec '07 was a little better n of the pike....08 south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Dec '07 was a little better n of the pike....08 south. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 GFS ensemble members, some are showing a monster block developing with a massive cold blast towards the end of the second work week in the runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Dec '07 was a little better n of the pike....08 south. Dec 2008 was also a little more east-centric. The Dec 21 storm destroyed NE MA and into Maine and the cranberry bog storm was better east vs west. Dec '07 had the norlun which was best east but it was partially offset by Dec 30-31 which was the best to the northwest in GC and into VT/NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Dec 2008 was also a little more east-centric. The Dec 21 storm destroyed NE MA and into Maine and the cranberry bog storm was better east vs west. Dec '07 had the norlun which was best east but it was partially offset by Dec 30-31 which was the best to the northwest in GC and into VT/NH. Naked twister was born. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 If the current SST pattern persists in the Northwestern Atlantic Ocean then you can quarantee explosive cyclogenesis will occur in the last two weeks of December or longer if the -NAO block continues and the arctic hounds howl their way into the New England region. Because the SSTs are cooling to the northeast of Cape Cod now below 11C while the SSTs near 40N latitude 72-66W longitude warm up to around 23C, this will allow explosive cyclogenesis within miller B type snowstorms to occur once they hit the East Coast. Temperature difference is a baroclinic zone separating the 24C waters from the -10C arctic air continental air masses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2016 Author Share Posted November 23, 2016 8 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Talk to me at climo start of winter, 3rd week of December Us older guys understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 James jfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 9 hours ago, dryslot said: I like our chances as well this winter season, And cutters are part of the transitioning periods from one pattern to another generally so i don't have as much an issue with them, And 09-10................... i would actually like to see a couple cutters in the next 1-2 weeks. as you said, they usually signal the transition. Plus we really need the rain before the ground freezes. i would be worried if I still had well water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 This is a good and detailed read from Judah Cohen earlier this week which has important implications for December, and I think optimistic ones for CNE and NNE: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation I am not a scientist but it makes me optimistic for New England. It seems there are a number of signs of optimism from the perspective of: a weaker PV allowing more high pressure at high latitudes a bias towards a negative NAO enough SE ridging to give a good storm track for at least CNE and NNE The chance for more SSW This paragraph particularly got my attention because perhaps we are seeing, finally, an opportunity for a tendency to both a negative NAO. Perhaps enough of a tendency to counter the general warmth he refers to, and the SE ridge which tends to appear in weak La Ninas: "I also note that northern North Atlantic SSTs are warmer, with cold SST anomalies shifted south compared to the same time last year. Northern North Atlantic SSTs for the past few winters have been exceptionally cold, which I believe favors an enhanced longitudinal temperature gradient, a strengthened Jet Stream, a positive NAO and a warm Europe. Potentially significantly warmer SSTs this winter could favor opposite conditions this upcoming winter with a weakened longitudinal temperature gradient, a weakened Jet Stream, a negative NAO and a colder Europe. And so far this fall, the NAO has had a negative tendency. But it is still very early and there are many other complicating factors still unknown. Also air and ocean temperatures remain near record levels across the NH and without dynamically forced cold (i.e., a weak polar vortex), the streak of warm weather will persist." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2016 Author Share Posted November 23, 2016 14 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: This is a good and detailed read from Judah Cohen earlier this week which has important implications for December, and I think optimistic ones for CNE and NNE: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation I am not a scientist but it makes me optimistic for New England. It seems there are a number of signs of optimism from the perspective of: a weaker PV allowing more high pressure at high latitudes a bias towards a negative NAO enough SE ridging to give a good storm track for at least CNE and NNE The chance for more SSW This paragraph particularly got my attention because perhaps we are seeing, finally, an opportunity for a tendency to both a negative NAO. Perhaps enough of a tendency to counter the general warmth he refers to, and the SE ridge which tends to appear in weak La Ninas: "I also note that northern North Atlantic SSTs are warmer, with cold SST anomalies shifted south compared to the same time last year. Northern North Atlantic SSTs for the past few winters have been exceptionally cold, which I believe favors an enhanced longitudinal temperature gradient, a strengthened Jet Stream, a positive NAO and a warm Europe. Potentially significantly warmer SSTs this winter could favor opposite conditions this upcoming winter with a weakened longitudinal temperature gradient, a weakened Jet Stream, a negative NAO and a colder Europe. And so far this fall, the NAO has had a negative tendency. But it is still very early and there are many other complicating factors still unknown. Also air and ocean temperatures remain near record levels across the NH and without dynamically forced cold (i.e., a weak polar vortex), the streak of warm weather will persist." Missed you here my friend. Our daughter packed the social calendar. Departure home just past midnight-about 10 hours from now. i agree with the optimism. I'm on the epicosity train for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 Classic ridge into Bering Sea on the EPS. So we'll -PNA dance and also walk the line. Hopefully The NAO tries to remain more negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 That scares me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That scares me Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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