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November Med/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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55 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Where do I need to look to see the cold CFSv2 runs for December? 

When I look at plots at this site for the last several days I see model forecasts ranging from "just above average" to "toasty" for our area. 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/

I use WeatherBell

I looked at the 12z and 18z runs from yesterday. The 2m temps are toasty for December. It is the CFS though, so if you dont like what you see, wait a run or 2 lol. Overall trend in the guidance for the long range lately has been to dump cold further west though, so who knows.  Just comical how JB will always manage to locate "evidence" to back up his claims of brutal cold on the way.

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While it looks like the west will be favored for a while, the gradient type look with lows running west doesn't eliminate snow chances as we move into Dec. I wouldn't be surprised if we have a chance at a CAD changeover type of deal during the first 10 days of Dec. Sure looks active across the conus for the next couple weeks. That's for sure 

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

While it looks like the west will be favored for a while, the gradient type look with lows running west doesn't eliminate snow chances as we move into Dec. I wouldn't be surprised if we have a chance at a CAD changeover type of deal during the first 10 days of Dec. Sure looks active across the conus for the next couple weeks. That's for sure 

I could see this developing into a mean eastern trough with lows ejecting out of the southwest.  Need timing, luck, and CAD.  Could turn out decent.

 

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31 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I use WeatherBell

I looked at the 12z and 18z runs from yesterday. The 2m temps are toasty for December. It is the CFS though, so if you dont like what you see, wait a run or 2 lol. Overall trend in the guidance for the long range lately has been to dump cold further west though, so who knows.  Just comical how JB will always manage to locate "evidence" to back up his claims of brutal cold on the way.

Don't bad mouth the CFS.  Mitch will be on you in a flash.

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DT posted his winter outlook recently,  including his forecast and the progression of how he envisions the changes occurring as we move forward.

His seasonal forecast makes a lot of sense, and does match what some here on the board have mentioned. Basically, best winter weather starting in early December, then more favorable after mid- December, continuing in later in December and through January. February the pattern changes and turns warmer.   

Mentions the Siberian cold and the PV heading that way is a major negative, including the enhanced Pacific jet.

 

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23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Does anyone have confidence in any lr forecast that has been put out this year? To me this winter looks like a door to door equal chance of anything type of deal. 

I'm with you.   I have no confidence in any long raange forecast.  Even the first week of December looks sketchy with the European ens mean from last night having the tough in the west and and Paacific that argues against getting enough cold air south for any chance of accumulating snow while todays GEFS ensemlbe mean has the trough in the west bug enough ridging over AK to suggest some cold air might be able to make it though it still looks to average near or slightly above normal for temps in the mean.  

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1 hour ago, usedtobe said:

I'm with you.   I have no confidence in any long raange forecast.  Even the first week of December looks sketchy with the European ens mean from last night having the tough in the west and and Paacific that argues against getting enough cold air south for any chance of accumulating snow while todays GEFS ensemlbe mean has the trough in the west bug enough ridging over AK to suggest some cold air might be able to make it though it still looks to average near or slightly above normal for temps in the mean.  

Yea, I'm thinking second week of Dec earliest right now for any real chances in our area. Storm cycles in the intermountain west rarely last for more than 3 weeks tops without a bluebird break in the action. It makes sense in my head that a ridge will build in the west in a couple weeks. But that's a total guess fraught with peril. lol. Hopfully the weeklies tonight have the same idea without a dumpster fire thrown in the mix. 

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies roll the pattern forward like I was thinking. +pna/-epo/-ao/-nao week 3 into 4. Then relax/reload a couple times after. Can't complain much about the run and certainly not a disaster.

Was just looking at it and agree.  Not bad. Looks like a nice setup for a cold 8-10 day period centered around mid Dec, followed by moderation, then maybe some cold for Xmas, then another rinse/repeat beyond that.

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16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Was just looking at it and agree.  Not bad. Looks like a nice setup for a cold 8-10 day period centered around mid Dec, followed by moderation, then maybe some cold for Xmas, then another rinse/repeat beyond that.

 

I could see how someone who expects door to door winter weather all Dec might complain but in reality, it was a pretty "normal" pattern and would offer chances. Something we haven't had many of in Dec the last couple years. 

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32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 

I could see how someone who expects door to door winter weather all Dec might complain but in reality, it was a pretty "normal" pattern and would offer chances. Something we haven't had many of in Dec the last couple years. 

lol we rarely do wall to wall cold in Dec so anyone expecting that is not in touch with reality. And you said it, after the last 2, I will take normal and run.

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4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

 

I could see how someone who expects door to door winter weather all Dec might complain but in reality, it was a pretty "normal" pattern and would offer chances. Something we haven't had many of in Dec the last couple years. 

I am thinking our first chance for real snow (not snowTV) will be in the Dec 5th to Dec 10th range... nothing much, but enough for us to track it 25/7 ;)

Weeklies looked decent as you said and its LR GFS... but I like the pattern that it shows/is moving toward

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For those worried, myself included, about the persistence of the PV being locked in over Asia could we possibly be seeing a split bringing part of it into N America?

Edit: Can't post the 50mb from weatherbell which shows higher height anomalies squeezing the PV from both sides bringing an extension of it i towards our side of the globe.

 

 

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42 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

For those worried, myself included, about the persistence of the PV being locked in over Asia could we possibly be seeing a split bringing part of it into N America?

Edit: Can't post the 50mb from weatherbell which shows higher height anomalies squeezing the PV from both sides bringing an extension of it i towards our side of the globe.

 

 

Looking at the 10 mb temp anomalies on the GEFS, the PV is not exactly a cold beast. It does stay fairly intact throughout the run though, and seems to become more consolidated towards day 15.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looking at the 10 mb temp anomalies on the GEFS, the PV is not exactly a cold beast. It does stay fairly intact throughout the run though, and seems to become more consolidated towards day 15.

Yep, pretty big differences between the GFS and its ensembles. Here's hoping that the Op is leading the way and signaling a possible change.

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