PDIII Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 27 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Shame that the cold is on the other side of the globe. With seasonable temps this setup on the 00Z GFS would be interesting even though it is 8-10 days out. The surface representation seems somewhat wonky to what I would expect to see when I look at the 500's though. Has trouble really cranking up the associated low and moves it around quite a bit. It does generate enough cold to plaster the higher elevations in the mountains with up to 2 feet of snow. (Getting old and can't remember, but we can post images from weatherbell as long as it is not the Euro. Am I right on that?) Yes. that is correct. I think that there are a handful of poster here that are allowed to post the euro images also. I am not sure exactly why they are permited. Typically what happens is that someone will post an image of the euro and they get blasted... but then the same person who ridicules them will actually post a euro image themselves a couple of weeks later and qualify it with "this is an image from some other model"... and not mention the euro by its name Its a wink wink nod nod thing.. but you have to cool enough to pull it off. if not, you just get yelled at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 22 minutes ago, PDIII said: Yes. that is correct. I think that there are a handful of poster here that are allowed to post the euro images also. I am not sure exactly why they are permited. Typically what happens is that someone will post an image of the euro and they get blasted... but then the same person who ridicules them will actually post a euro image themselves a couple of weeks later and qualify it with "this is an image from some other model"... and not mention the euro by its name Its a wink wink nod nod thing.. but you have to cool enough to pull it off. if not, you just get yelled at. 6Z GFS shows a similiar setup. Model picked up on this revolving lp scenario 4 days ago or so and then lost it. Looks interesting for the Appalachians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 11 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: 6Z GFS shows a similiar setup. Model picked up on this revolving lp scenario 4 days ago or so and then lost it. Looks interesting for the Appalachians. Euro doesn't agree at this point. Instead of cutting off the trough @ 500's it drives it straight through. Something to keep an eye on though. Really a shame that all the cold is elsewhere, otherwise with seasonable temps I think this would be somewhat interesting to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: Euro doesn't agree at this point. Instead of cutting off the trough @ 500's it drives it straight through. Something to keep an eye on though. Really a shame that all the cold is elsewhere, otherwise with seasonable temps I think this would be somewhat interesting to follow. With this scenario showing up on two straight GFS runs, maybe the EURO will show something similar today (as long as the 12z GFS still has it). Then it may get a little more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 2 hours ago, Wonderdog said: With this scenario showing up on two straight GFS runs, maybe the EURO will show something similar today (as long as the 12z GFS still has it). Then it may get a little more interesting. I am just happy to have something to look at even if it is probably only for a day or two. After getting weatherbell earlier this week the models have been nothing but depressing with torch city wherever you look. I will say the models have been somewhat hinting at a flip in a couple of weeks. But you know how that goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 4 hours ago, PDIII said: Yes. that is correct. I think that there are a handful of poster here that are allowed to post the euro images also. I am not sure exactly why they are permited. Typically what happens is that someone will post an image of the euro and they get blasted... but then the same person who ridicules them will actually post a euro image themselves a couple of weeks later and qualify it with "this is an image from some other model"... and not mention the euro by its name Its a wink wink nod nod thing.. but you have to cool enough to pull it off. if not, you just get yelled at. Thanks. Pretty sure I had no problems last year with posting them (except Euro) but senility is setting in which makes it hard to remember for sure and I was just to damn lazy to go back and check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 22 hours ago, Jon said: Looks a lot like Nov '98 too...we all know how that winter worked out. If only it was that easy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 If things happen as what is currently being advertised we could be in for an interesting temperature period. Possible record warmth late next week followed by the longest duration "cool stretch" we've had in quite a while. I'm hoping it holds so the holiday actually feels like late fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 It is officially tracking season. GFS has it's first fantasy snowstorm setting up at day 16. Miller A being pulled up from the gulf coast with a closed upper low to its northwest looking to capture it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 I am fine with seasonable temps for Thanksgiving. No real improvement on the Pacific side showing up for the foreseeable future. Atlantic is not awful, hints of some NA >blocking< down the line in the means. We have seen that before though lol. Just wanted to make sure WWL doesn't miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: It is officially tracking season. GFS has it's first fantasy snowstorm setting up at day 16. Miller A being pulled up from the gulf coast with a closed upper low to its northwest looking to capture it. Not a Snowstorm, Rain, any snow would be After 384hrs. 12z Euro is chilly LR with snow showers in eastern PA next Sunday/Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 46 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I am fine with seasonable temps for Thanksgiving. No real improvement on the Pacific side showing up for the foreseeable future. Atlantic is not awful, hints of some NA >blocking< down the line in the means. We have seen that before though lol. Just wanted to make sure WWL doesn't miss it. Yea, the gefs and Canadian ens have trended towards making the best out of a bad pac pattern for the east starting in a week. The brief epo spike allows a decent cold dump leading into the holiday and now beyond that period blocking keeps lower heights in the east even though the EPac looks lIke crap while the middle of the country is a ridge sandwich. Hopefully the euro ens trend that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 29 minutes ago, NinjaWarrior2 said: Not a Snowstorm, Rain, any snow would be After 384hrs. 12z Euro is chilly LR with snow showers in eastern PA next Sunday/Monday. Yeah, initially that would be rain with marginal temps but looking at the 500's and the surface I would think after the 384hr that it most likely turns to heavy snow as the low winds up and pulls north into our region. But it doesn't really matter because the chances of this verifying are slim anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 1 inch for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 Gefs has trended fairly strongly in the winter direction the last 5 runs. Legit -nao and trough in the east d10-15. Euro ens took a slight step towards this idea last night but not nearly nice as the gefs. CMC ens look more similar to the gefs than the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs has trended fairly strongly in the winter direction the last 5 runs. Legit -nao and trough in the east d10-15. Euro ens took a slight step towards this idea last night but not nearly nice as the gefs. CMC ens look more similar to the gefs than the euro. GFS did better than Euro last year imho, so let's go with gefs and call me a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 53 minutes ago, mitchnick said: GFS did better than Euro last year imho, so let's go with gefs and call me a weenie. Is that for the blizzard, the winter, or 2016? I'm siding with ecmwf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 Thats not too bad of a look heading into December. Pacific needs some work to get right, but the NA looks nice. Its a ways out there, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 14, 2016 Author Share Posted November 14, 2016 This could be the beginning of the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This could be the beginning of the beginning. So Churchillian! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Something needs to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 LR 12z GFS looks nice... esp Day 10-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 LR 12z GFS looks nice... esp Day 10-15I'm hoping that coastal storm is our first thing to actually track this year. Cold isn't an issue if your willing to believe the run at all. Trends have been looking good, I'm getting cautiously optimistic for real snow by Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 @Ji Tracking season is officially open Sick 5 day mean: And it may deliver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: @Ji Tracking season is officially open Sick 5 day mean: And it may deliver Our November snow drought is in jeopardy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 1 hour ago, yoda said: LR 12z GFS looks nice... esp Day 10-15 the first of 200 similar proclamations to come this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: @Ji Tracking season is officially open Sick 5 day mean: And it may deliver Ensemble snow products. My favorite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Heh, euro ens still caving to the GEFS on the stout -NAO. I have a feeling the "it's happening" gif will be posted in a week. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 49 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, euro ens still caving to the GEFS on the stout -NAO. I have a feeling the "it's happening" gif will be posted in a week. lol I said yesterday that I'm going with the gefs....until I don't like the look of em' at least. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 In all seriousness, I was impressed with the performance of the gfs last year, especially wrt the blizzard. I don't know what they did to the model or what the Brits have failed to do with the Euro, but I'm inclined to stick with the gfs suite until the Euro can prove it deserves the crown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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