Hoth Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 6 hours ago, CoastalWx said: James approved 00z Gfs. lol. Drought cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 At this point, It looks like there is a chance for this one to impact the east coast somewhere, That's all that can be said at this point, Making claims to its severity is pure weenie right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: A general thread for the the storm is very warranted...but the context in which this was started is silly. okay ... well, chalk that up as being in the learning side of it - people are not going to learn without making mistakes. it may seem 'silly' to those with more experience or faculties in the subject matter, but they, too passed through lesser sentience at one point or the other. i had a college professor who was basically the Lab coordinator - advising most Met students that came through the program in one way or the other. one thing that always stuck out in my mind with that guy is that he NEVER openly chastised a student who raised their hands and made a question/comment that to the majority was eye-rolling. he patiently listened, then asked him/her questions that were beautifully designed to elicit the individual to think about it ... then, the student invariable 'oh - ' ... taking ownership of their misconception and heh... that's seems like an infinitely more promising tactic to take with challenged perspectives in any ism - from science to politics. take that debate last night: i am a complete and utter p.o.s. hypocrite ... because Trump is so ad nauseam disingenuous, betrayed by all those stupid mircro-facial movements/twitches/expressions (...where 2/3rds of all communication is really leveled) as well as via the intonation of his words/phrases, that he challenges the endurance of the listener. i can't watch THAT. i can't offer feedback. it's so far lost to anything sane that even for the good-hearted, brilliant professor of my personal lore, ...he would fail to reach the bozo who "struts and frets his hour upon the stage", hopefully before he is really "Heard no more". because clearly...to anyone with any analytic ability in their perception and processing of reality, his is a "Tail told by and idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing" ! but i digress... -------------------------------- drought to epicosity flooding on the 06z GFS... heh. if nothing else, you got to admire the models not giving up. i agree, the plausible implications to land warrants a thread in general, too. but there in ... this could be still as much a threat to the Bend region of the Texas Coast as well as Nova Scotia at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstoned Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 "Out, out brief candle..." one of Shakespeare's greatest passages. (Maybe, "Out, out, brief drought'?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 6z gefs were impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 12 minutes ago, Hailstoned said: "Out, out brief candle..." one of Shakespeare's greatest passages. (Maybe, "Out, out, brief drought'?) Drought is but a walking shadow, a poor player who struts and frets his hour on the stage and is heard no more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 6z gefs were impressive That it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Impressive consensus on that hard right-hand turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 24 minutes ago, Hoth said: Impressive consensus on that hard right-hand turn. thing is ... (not that anyone should 'hope' for otherwise...) but when TCs move bodily across the DR like that, that island is toppled by mountains and typically systems get shredded to pieces when they do so. the models (in this case) are trying to sell us that the would-be TC will do so and seemingly only suffer very minor degradation of structure. We should find that hard to believe, considering both theory and practice. wind doesn't blow through mountains for one; that limitation is demonstrated countless times in the past. In fact, that entire archipelago from Cuba to DR to PR is considered as a savior to the Gulf and SE U.S. for a reason. not sure what the actual numbers are, but ...i'd say fairly half if not more of all TCs are mitigated to some degree do to entanglements with that veritable wall down there... but it depends on the details... some TCs do get through; it depends on their exact track. if they sneak through one of those straights between the islands .. obviously they fair better. Sandy in fact came over eastern Cuba - that part of the island is relatively flat, however. DR is not flat. lots of time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 30 minutes ago, dryslot said: That it was 12Z shifted a bit west. but noise, I'm actually very interested in the future of this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 6 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: 12Z shifted a bit west. but noise, I'm actually very interested in the future of this.. It does take it further west before the hard right turn to the north, It does bear watching at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 funny how the 12z has it crossing between DR/Cuba.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 What does the Euro have to say about this in past runs? Looks like 12z GFS will be way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Op runs will be all over the board at this point, Just follow ensembles to see if they remain consistent for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 56 minutes ago, dryslot said: Op runs will be all over the board at this point, Just follow ensembles to see if they remain consistent for now 4 realz? I thought the Op runs were the way to go based on the thread starter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Last frame on the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Maybe this will be worth tracking by next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Big differences between the Euro and GFS op at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 1938 esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 oh, i think it's worth tracking now... weather' (haha) it ends up being only a threat to PR-DR-FL ...the Bahamas... etc, or further up the coast, or both ...sure, in terms of 'certitude', next week is better. but real enough. it's not like there's nothing there and we're in wait of that table before we can even set it - like we have to do in the winter time every so often. like when there is a whopper tele signal and the operational models don't really show it - we gotta argue for something emerging... anyway, we have a TD that at least through 72 hours is probably going to develop quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 1938 esque how so? why? because it 'might' move S-N immediately astride the MA toware LI? if that is the case, everything is 1938 esque - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 I'm a little intrigued. Watching out of the corner of my eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: how so? why? because it 'might' move S-N immediately astride the MA toware LI? if that is the case, everything is 1938 esque - I think this is closer to sandy then 38. 38 didn't make the sharp north turn until hundreds is not a thousand miles further north and for Completly different reasons. All speculation at this point. I think it's equally likely it's goes into the gulf or or put to sea and we see zilch as far as effects Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 23 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: John, I understand the that there is a learning curve.....but he has been around for a few years now. Anyway, I def. do appreciate the enthusiasm. I'd just assume see this barrel into s FL because odds are not good of anything ever making it all the way up the coast, never mind in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 I'd really like to see some significant development over the next 24 hours because by then it will be entering into the tropical death valley of the eastern Carribean. Very rare to see a system develop there if it hasn't already, then we are talking potential interaction with Hispanola not long after that. Thereafter, who knows when the mid latitudes vomit dry air into it, and impart wind shear.....it will be October by then. Not as much time as it may appear with this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Happy hour GFS with a 917 even with HSE's latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Happy hour GFS with a 917 even with HSE's latitude. We sling it into BDR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: We sling it into BDR? Montauk Mauler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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