PB GFI Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Any shot we can take out Fenway ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Well, if that gfs solution verified it would be one of the worst disasters this country has seen. Luckily, it likely won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just now, KPITSnow said: Well, if that gfs solution verified it would be one of the worst disasters this country has seen. Luckily, it likely won't. I can think of a good analogy, if Sandy was the finger of God, this would be the fist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Yeah, that was one of the weeniest runs of all time weenie runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Bad part about this run is after NC, most of the convection is on the west side of the cyclone. Very problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 06Z GFS vs 00Z GFS for 7pm Saturday, October 8... Only minor differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 10 minutes ago, andyhb said: Based on what? Its asymmetric in the core right now based on IR satellite presentation, until it straightens that out, its leveled off, but it is by no means peaked at this point. Especially since modelstake whatever we have tomorrow and strengthen it further into Jamaica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Matthew appears to be moving west now. Could just be a wobble, but eye is definitely moving more westerly now, latest two frames even showed a slightly north of west component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 15 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Its asymmetric in the core right now based on IR satellite presentation, until it straightens that out, its leveled off, but it is by no means peaked at this point. Especially since modelstake whatever we have tomorrow and strengthen it further into Jamaica. Models don't predict ERCs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 There is nothing to indicate Matthew has peaked out yet. ERC's are normal for hurricanes of this magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just now, Bacon Strips said: There is nothing to indicate Matthew has peaked out yet. ERC's are normal for hurricanes of this magnitude. I meant peaked for now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 where's the best site to get the UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 10 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: where's the best site to get the UKMET? Here's the site I use to view it: http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=ukmet&map=na&run=&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest It's probably not the best but it's serviceable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 27 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: where's the best site to get the UKMET? UKMET/GFS/144 For some reason I cant post the 144- It is in the GFS camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 UKMET 144: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 The Euro has a mind of its own, sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Eye clouding in a bit on IR. My guess is that if it hasn't peaked already, it will pretty soon. We're nearing 85-90% of MPI over 29C SSTs. Water is warmer to the west and towards Jamaica, so it'll have a shot of running up the score again later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 still looking twilight zone'ish. how soon before we see the 2nd eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jh28wd40 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 It winked at us... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 NAVGEM is in the GFS camp: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Euro says ots, bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Euro says ots, bye.The same Euro that had is stalled for 3-4 days over the Bahamas last run then drifting South at 216 hrs? Not saying the Euro is wrong, just pointing out the Euro has probably been the least consistent model irt to Matthew from one run to the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The same Euro that had is stalled for 3-4 days over the Bahamas last run then drifting South at 216 hrs? Not saying the Euro is wrong, just pointing out the Euro has probably been the least consistent model irt to Matthew from one run to the next. I agree. Just wanted to put it out there for those wondering up this late. There is still a great deal of uncertainty with this system. Just because it misses us down here in the Southeast, doesn't mean it won't recurve and affect the Northern East Coast. I think it's best to see what strength he has tomorrow (through the day) and if he makes that sharp North turn tomorrow evening/night. That will be the telling part; Regardless of what the models say. (along with that trough! does it sag, does it speed up, slow down? who knows?!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 4 hours ago, Bacon Strips said: still looking twilight zone'ish. how soon before we see the 2nd eye What is up with that big blob of convection to the east of the main circulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Only a very few EC ensemble members bring it close to or over the coast. I still think a near miss is the best (or worst if you live there) scenario. Also, I am skeptical that this was really ever a cat 5, pressures were too high and the sat presentation was never perfect. Looking at the sat pics now I am sure it is currently not a 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 7 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Only a very few EC ensemble members bring it close to or over the coast. I still think a near miss is the best (or worst if you live there) scenario. Also, I am skeptical that this was really ever a cat 5, pressures were too high and the sat presentation was never perfect. Looking at the sat pics now I am sure it is currently not a 5. central Caribbean doesn't require sub 920mb pressures for a cat 5 (see prior storms) because of the background pressure gradient of this area. recon doesn't lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 if anyone would like to discuss the potential snow aspect from Matthew come to https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/48951-matthew/?page=8 so we don't clutter up the tracking. 6z gfs hints at any linger moisture going into Sunday may bring snow showers for the slopes of NC, TN, VA, WV, a little more for New England, and S/E Canada is hammered with feet of snow pack building to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 WRAL predicts it will hit Cuba as a cat 3 and Bahamas as a cat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 8AM down to 155 MPH max winds and up to 947mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmg378s Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 6 hours ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: where's the best site to get the UKMET? Here's another site: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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