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PTC Matthew

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1 minute ago, Tibet said:

Surge in the Neptune beach area is going to be nasty... ocean is going to more or less roll over it like it wasn't there.

nosurge.PNG

surge.PNG

Can you post Ormond Beach and Daytona area?

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1 minute ago, Jackstraw said:

Don't worry, it's moving 10 mph they are not gonna miss much.

If RI continues, they'll actually be missing quite a bit. Should get there in time for the winds to catch up to the pressure drops though. 

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1 minute ago, sbos_wx said:

Can you post Ormond Beach and Daytona area?

Will pull them up in a moment... but last I looked the actual ocean side looked to fair pretty well... but the west side of the Halifax River is in trouble.

 

 

Will get them posted asap.

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Ormond / Daytona... Was just discussing this with someone else, but it looks like the dunes / walls may save the immediate ocean side, which is ironic as the more inland locations to the west of the Halifax River fair far worse.

 

 

uxeJVva.jpg

 

 

8D5x4Tc.jpg

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1 minute ago, Tibet said:

Ormond / Daytona... Was just discussing this with someone else, but it looks like the dunes / walls may save the immediate ocean side, which is ironic as the more inland locations to the west of the Halifax River fair far worse.

 

Cocoa Beach area?

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4 minutes ago, jh28wd40 said:

I just heard a c130 taking off from Macdill AFB, I wonder if that's a recon mission...?

Looks like this one left from Biloxi Mississippi AF307

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ADT still remains at 6.6, as of 0445Z. Estimated 931.8mb, 129.6 kt... Potential is there...

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27 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

If RI continues, they'll actually be missing quite a bit. Should get there in time for the winds to catch up to the pressure drops though. 

This is for another thread but they really arent going to miss that much.  RI doesn't happen in the 3 hours it's going to take them to get there it's a much longer process to even be considered RI.  They will be back in there in plenty of time to monitor this storm, it's only moving 10 mph.  Almost guarantee they will hit the eye before the 5am update which is what they try to do.  Not being coarse but they don't fly so we have something to look at every 5 minutes.  I've learned over many many years to be patient with these storms and the flights and the models and the forecasts.   I'm sure from a science aspect, those guys want 10 planes and drones in a storm like this all the time 24/7.  There's a reason the NOAA P3's aren't flying these storms as much as they used to and it has nothing to do with the age of those badass P3's.  It is what it is and that's about it, I wish it was better, especially on the NOAA side,   Please dont ban me! I hope that answered your question.

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Euro Hi Res has lowest pressure of 934.1mb right roughly 4-6 hours prior to landfall. Wind gusts over 130 knots near the coast with landfall area receiving 100-115 knot gusts. Hurricane force gusts extending inland by 40-50 miles. 

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The HRRR is not really built to be a hurricane model, but the 04z HRRR has a section of the rather wide eyewall into Fort Lauderdale in 18hrs (22z) Scary! It seems so soon.

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Euro Hi Res has lowest pressure of 934.1mb right roughly 4-6 hours prior to landfall. Wind gusts over 130 knots near the coast with landfall area receiving 100-115 knot gusts. Hurricane force gusts extending inland by 40-50 miles. 

 

Thanks Scott. Unreal storm. My uncle and aunt about 20 miles north of Fort Lauderdale have already boarded up there house and are preparing for the storm. They said every gas station is out of gas.

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1 minute ago, Chinook said:

The HRRR is not really built to be a hurricane model, but the 04z HRRR has a section of the rather wide eyewall into Fort Lauderdale in 18hrs (22z) Scary! It seems so soon.

It tends to have a major west bias with every significant low beyond hour 14 or so, so that does not surprise me.

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Well, then, referring to a real hurricane model (not the HRRR), the 00z HWRF has the 64kt wind field approaching the coast at 21z then, nearly 64kt (plus or minus some) scrapes the coast for a long time, up to nearly Charleston harbor SC.  I would suppose that hurricane force wind gusts could occur 20 miles inland for a large stretch of the coast. I hope it really does turn away from the coast in South Carolina. Certainly not rooting for damage... I have a fondness for Myrtle Beach pier.

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2 hours ago, Chinook said:

The eye of Hurricane Matthew is barely visible on KAMX radar, 232 nautical miles away from it.

Its also visible on the long range TDWR TMIA.

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Very little change in track wrt FL at 5 am. NHC now brings it to 145 in 24 hours.. Ugly for Nassau, very likely to be raked by the NE eyewall in about 2-3 hours.

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