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Fall+Banter


Ginx snewx

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two weeks from this Sunday ... clocks go back an hour. 

a, i like to wait until Monday morning when i roll over and cut the aggravation of the alarm to the realization that i get another hour.

but, more importantly, b, ... we get to see modeling products earlier in the cycles.  

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Ahh right, duh. A deleting I will go. BTW, do you get increased space if you donate to the AMX fund?

Yes, you can buy a "subscription" and get more space.  You can go up to 200mb with the gold plan, or 500 with the super plan.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/store/category/1-upgrade-packages/

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7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Out in the woods today scouting for Deer season next weekend, Lot of acorns and they are big as well

Wife and son spotted a bobcat about an hour ago near our house.   I've never seen one but supposedly they are all over the place here

Acorn crop has been epic.  Deer will be fat

 

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While we argue about the warm ground topic in NNE, I thought it might be a good time to bring this age old debate as I just stumbled across this presentation in my email.

https://ams.confex.com/ams/27WAF23NWP/webprogram/Paper273676.html

Moral of the story is that off hour GFS runs at equal lead time with 12/00z runs verify worse (i.e. 36 hour 00z forecast is better than 36 hour 06z forecast). BUT, off hour runs at the same time verify better than the previous run (i.e. 36 hour 00z run is worse than 30 hour 06z run). 

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12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

While we argue about the warm ground topic in NNE, I thought it might be a good time to bring this age old debate as I just stumbled across this presentation in my email.

https://ams.confex.com/ams/27WAF23NWP/webprogram/Paper273676.html

Moral of the story is that off hour GFS runs at equal lead time with 12/00z runs verify worse (i.e. 36 hour 00z forecast is better than 36 hour 06z forecast). BUT, off hour runs at the same time verify better than the previous run (i.e. 36 hour 00z run is worse than 30 hour 06z run). 

The last sentence makes sense to me. I think the old adage of off hour stuff can be put to bed for the most part. 

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The last sentence makes sense to me. I think the old adage of off hour stuff can be put to bed for the most part. 

 

Yeah it just means don't weight it quite as heavily as you would if you were making a timely forecast off of 12z or 00z data....but don't toss it in favor of a 6 hour old run either.

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25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely, Will. I will say....I still have that spectacular 18z nam fail from 2/15/14 in my head. One of the best 12hr fails I can ever recall lol. Of course I conclude that as being the nam, rather than off hour stuff. That had me getting 18" which was 6" in reality. 

Sounds like a disappointing Saturday night.

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Can someone involved in the ski industry give me their best guess if either attitash or preferably Cranmore will be open when I go to North Conway Dec 19-22.

my girlfriend is healed from her ankle injury and wants to try skiing again.

were staying 2 mins away from Cranmore, so obviously I'd prefer to go there.

 

Thanks

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