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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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3 minutes ago, jburns said:

The weather channel has winter storm names more appropriate for the north.  Just so we don't feel left out I give you the......

 

2016-17 SE Forum Winter Storm Names

 

Almost

Benign

Cancel

Downer

Expletive

Flurry

Grief

Hopeless

Insignificant

Joke

Kludge

Letdown

Maybe

Nope

Obstacle

Pitiful

Quitter

Rainy

Showers

Trace

Useless

Valueless

Waste

Xeric

Yuck

Zephyr

Right now I'll take Flurry, Maybe, and Trace. I learned as a kid that Maybe means Yes...

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42 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Yes...I am a buyer of the day 9 overrunning event on the Euro.  Light snows for NC/VA.

Yay, first EURO fantasy snow of the year in CLT....on Dec 6, not bad.  Fantasy snow = so, you're telling me there's a chance!!

How do you copy and paste a model jpeg/file in here now.  Since the Board upgrade I'm not sure how to use.  thanks. 

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3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Nice little Hit on the Euro for Mid Month, go figure. 8-9 days out but only 6-7 days out for winter storm watch and only 4-5 days out beofre burns grants Brick permission to start a thread using the inside 5 day rule.

 

 

 

Lol, it will be well north, once we get inside 5 days.

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1 hour ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Well I will be moving from the upstate of SC (Greenville area) to Gastonia, NC in a few weeks with my new job.  I am anticipating that this 90 mile move north will result in a dramatic increase in my winter weather probabilities (LOL).  Now I don't have to be jealous of my NC friends anymore!

From CPC below, looks like some cold stuff coming into US in a week or so!

For Tuesday December 13 - Monday December 19: Ensemble means agree that anomalous ridging aloft persists across the Bering Sea which is likely to result in another arctic high shifting south from Canada into the northern Great Plains by the beginning of Week-2. Much below-normal temperatures are likely to affect at least the north-central U.S. and parts of Alaska through mid-December. The slight, moderate, and high risk of much below-normal temperatures are posted for areas where the GEFS reforecast tool indicates that daily minimum temperatures have a 20, 40, or 60 percent chance, respectively, of falling below the 15th percentile comparted to climatology. The 6Z GFS ensemble mean indicates temperatures averaging more than 25 degrees F below normal across the northern high Plains early in Week-2. No additional winter weather hazards are posted during Week-2 as model solutions vary on the timing of heavy snow across the western U.S. and there is no clear signal for the location of heavy snow and/or freezing rain across the central and eastern U.S.

Try the Cherryville area.

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23 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Yay, first EURO fantasy snow of the year in CLT....on Dec 6, not bad.  Fantasy snow = so, you're telling me there's a chance!!

How do you copy and paste a model jpeg/file in here now.  Since the Board upgrade I'm not sure how to use.  thanks. 

I dont see any flakes at all for Charlotte or anywhere west of highway 1 and east of the escarpment. 

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Nice little Hit on the Euro for Mid Month, go figure. 8-9 days out but only 6-7 days out for winter storm watch and only 4-5 days out beofre burns grants Brick permission to start a thread using the inside 5 day rule.

 

 

 


won't need 6-7 days to watch. it will be gone at 00z . The euro has been horrible post day 5

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29 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Pattern still looks mighty transient in the long range.  Someone in the northern SE could possibly cash in but it looks like a thread the needle event if anything in the next ten days. 

When are any of our wintry events, not thread the needle!? It doesn't take much to screw up a storm for us

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22 minutes ago, Stormcatt said:

packs going like the EPS until the very end. Eastern trough idea more in line with the Canadian ensembles vs the western trough idea the gefs had

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Yep...GEFS is either really good or struggling right now.  

Not a great snow pattern but we either need HLB or we need to fire up a ridge in the west, not just the omega block.

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Yep...GEFS is either really good or struggling right now.  

Not a great snow pattern but we either need HLB or we need to fire up a ridge in the west, not just the omega block.


true , I guess the good thing is the eps keeps Canada in the freeze the whole run. So at least we keep the cold on our side regardless of what happens late in the period

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2 minutes ago, Stormcatt said:


true , I guess the good thing is the eps keeps Canada in the freeze the whole run. So at least we keep the cold on our side regardless of what happens late in the period

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Yep...definitely not a disaster pattern even at the very end of the run when we warm up.  Light/small overrunning event day 8-13 is possible for someone.

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That is a substantial high, Wow, and in a pretty good spot.  And there is a 1047 right on its heels.  Been a while since we've seen a steady generation and influx of strong highs like that.  I don't care what any model shows re: snow:  If we don't have a good high in a favorable spot, 9 times out of 10, you can forget it.

Anyway, I like what I see.  Now if we can just replace that number 2 in the hundreds digit with a 0.... :)

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