Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion

[Met1985]

16 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Nice 582dm ridge sliding into the west coast by day 7.

Also have a well placed stronger 588dm ridge of the SE coast by then.With a strong placed ridge there it keeps fronts from blasting through and we get multiple rounds of heavy rain chances for a week or longer.Not great for winter weather but good for precip until it finally gets beaten down.

Yep. let's get the rain in here then cold. A great setup to hopefully put an end to these forest fires.

[NCSNOW]

On 11/21/2016 at 0:49 PM, NCSNOW said:

The Drought is fixing to take a punch in the face in the SE. Want be a knockout blow but the trough setting up in the west is going to open up SW flow and we should get a hefty dose of rain across the SE early next week. Then the trough should continue work its way east and hopefully set up shop east coast style through the first 10 days of December.

Still sticking with my Monday idea. SE is gonna get some much needed releif, more so over western parts first then progressing east throughout next week. And give me the pac dream setup first then atlantic/blocking. I love blocking but without the pac cooperating it's fruitless for my neck of the woods 99 times out of 100.

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, NCSNOW said:

Still sticking with my Monday idea. SE is gonna get some much needed releif, more so over western parts first then progressing east throughout next week. And give me the pac dream setup first then atlantic/blocking. I love blocking but without the pac cooperating it's fruitless for my neck of the woods 99 times out of 100.

Good call.

[Cold Rain]

I'm having a hard time seeing a legit change to a wet pattern for the SE, based on a combination of looking at LR model data and the trends over the last few months.  Within any legitimate time frame where the model has any skill at all, the only mechanism we have to produce rain is a strong cold frontal passage.  Out in the 5-7 day time frame, we see the SE ridge get beaten down some and a big U-shaped trough moving east toward the SE.  But once again, the main storm/energy goes up into the midwest, leaving us hoping for waves riding along a slow-moving front to produce copious rainfall in the SE.  We've seen this depicted time and again in this range, only to back way off as we get closer.  Way far out in la la land, we see a continued strong -PNA and ridging along the Gulf/SE.  With that in place, the storm track is still going to be north of us.  The LR likes to pop such a huge -NAO that it forces the storm track south, close to us, so we get these waves riding near the area, producing all of this rain.  My bet is, given how the pattern has been, that the track will be much farther north than it is currently being shown in the LR.

6z GFS 500 mb 174:

6z GFS Surface 174:

6z GFS 500 mb 300 (same story as above):

6z GFS Surface 300 (same story as above):

6z GFS 500 mb 384:

Don't get me wrong.  I hope for a very wet pattern to emerge.  And we are reshuffling some of the key players around in the atmosphere.  So I would say that a pattern change is coming.  But this may very well be one of those examples where you can have a pattern change that doesn't really lead to a wholly different outcome in the southeast.

[Stormcatt]

I'm having a hard time seeing a legit change to a wet pattern for the SE, based on a combination of looking at LR model data and the trends over the last few months.  Within any legitimate time frame where the model has any skill at all, the only mechanism we have to produce rain is a strong cold frontal passage.  Out in the 5-7 day time frame, we see the SE ridge get beaten down some and a big U-shaped trough moving east toward the SE.  But once again, the main storm/energy goes up into the midwest, leaving us hoping for waves riding along a slow-moving front to produce copious rainfall in the SE.  We've seen this depicted time and again in this range, only to back way off as we get closer.  Way far out in la la land, we see a continued strong -PNA and ridging along the Gulf/SE.  With that in place, the storm track is still going to be north of us.  The LR likes to pop such a huge -NAO that it forces the storm track south, close to us, so we get these waves riding near the area, producing all of this rain.  My bet is, given how the pattern has been, that the track will be much farther north than it is currently being shown in the LR.

6z GFS 500 mb 174:



6z GFS Surface 174:



6z GFS 500 mb 300 (same story as above):



6z GFS Surface 300 (same story as above):



6z GFS 500 mb 384:



Don't get me wrong.  I hope for a very wet pattern to emerge.  And we are reshuffling some of the key players around in the atmosphere.  So I would say that a pattern change is coming.  But this may very well be one of those examples where you can have a pattern change that doesn't really lead to a wholly different outcome in the southeast.

kinda like the pattern change we had two weeks ago, cooler no doubt but still very dry

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[BullCityWx]

12z GFS drops almost 6" at CLT this run. 

[griteater]

Solid analysis Cold Rain, as usual...but I do think we'll see some increased rain opportunities.  Not deep south tracking lows with copious moisture, but cold fronts swinging through from the west that are stronger than we've been seeing and slower moving due to the downstream blocky pattern, providing some rain to the fire ravaged areas, with lesser amounts toward the coastal plain.

[NWNC2015]

Van Denton is also calling for the first Piedmont snow before Christmas in his winter outlook...I agree. I believe we will be tracking something shortly here by around day 14.

[Cold Rain]

42 minutes ago, griteater said:

Solid analysis Cold Rain, as usual...but I do think we'll see some increased rain opportunities.  Not deep south tracking lows with copious moisture, but cold fronts swinging through from the west that are stronger than we've been seeing and slower moving due to the downstream blocky pattern, providing some rain to the fire ravaged areas, with lesser amounts toward the coastal plain.

Thanks...yeah, that is why we have to hope blocking materializes.  With the storm track still well to our north and west, we need fronts to slow down and draw in moisture from the Gulf.  Hopefully, we will see that actually begin to take shape so some of these 180 hr fronts with lots of rain will work into the 0-12 hr time frame.

[mackerel_sky]

3 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

12z GFS drops almost 6" at CLT this run. 

Que Shetley! 

[calculus1]

Que Shetley! 

"What Shetley"

That doesn't make any sense, Mack.

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[NWNC2015]

3" of rain is plenty...don't need anything over. Could be some debris flow in the MTNS if 6" or more occurred where trees and stuff were burned.

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

13 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Que Shetley! 

Can't be. Shetley said no rain until the next millennium. 

 

In his defense though, I'll believe it when I see it. 

[griteater]

Day 10-15 Heights and 850mb temps on Euro Ens.  First signs of a legit slowdown in the Pacific flow.  Favors snowfall over the central & southern Rockies, and upper midwest

[mackerel_sky]

3 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

12z GFS drops almost 6" at CLT this run. 

Que Shetley! He will pic it apart and tell you how the 18z only gives him .25 of qpf over the next 69 days!

[NWNC2015]

Think we could have a more active tornado pattern this winter once we get into this wetter pattern. Something to watch.

[packbacker]

3 hours ago, griteater said:

Day 10-15 Heights and 850mb temps on Euro Ens.  First signs of a legit slowdown in the Pacific flow.  Favors snowfall over the central & southern Rockies, and upper midwest

Yep...

[NCSNOW]

Goofy had the artic hounds coming down late at 18z. So in honor of brick has anyone checked the 0z.

[Stormcatt]

Goofy had the artic hounds coming down late at 18z. So in honor of brick has anyone checked the 0z.

00z is the same

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[Jon]

41 minutes ago, Stormcatt said:

00z is the same

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Not to say the last frame of the GFS Op should be believed, but this is a good sign to see cold on our side of the globe. -20F for Minnesota, -10F lows for Minneapolis...PV drops south of Hudson Bay. Pair that with a ridge on the west coast and look out in the SE! This should help the cold deniers a bit, now for the ensembles to come on board. Whenever you're in the midst of a pattern change with cold bleeding east, it will take a while for the ensembles to sniff out a trough on the east coast for the LR...we'll have to wait, but it's coming!

[Stormcatt]

Not to say the last frame of the GFS Op should be believed, but this is a good sign to see cold on our side of the globe. -20F for Minnesota, -10F lows for Minneapolis...PV drops south of Hudson Bay. Pair that with a ridge on the west coast and look out in the SE! This should help the cold deniers a bit, now for the ensembles to come on board. Whenever you're in the midst of a pattern change with cold bleeding east, it will take a while for the ensembles to sniff out a trough on the east coast for the LR...we'll have to wait, but it's coming!

Agree it's also nice to see the Ridge building NW of Alaska. My fear with that is it sets up too far to the west and allows the western troughs to continue to dig in . We really need the PNA to wake up . The only thing that bugs me is the ensembles are still hell bent on splitting the US with a west coast trough and a trough off the eastern seaboard. Hopefully your right that it takes them a while and they will slow start to correct over time. Given all that it's clear the pattern is undergoing huge changes , if we can finally shut off the pacific jet and establish the Ridge late December into January could be fun


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[NWNC2015]

5 more days of suffering at least. Hopefully the rains don't trend down each day.

[mackerel_sky]

49 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

5 more days of suffering at least. Hopefully the rains don't trend down each day.

Happy Thanksgiving to Shetley ! He will love that run

[Jonathan]

Now THIS is what we like to see...only 360 hours!  Enjoy your highs in the 30s down there, Phil!  

[pcbjr]

47 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Now THIS is what we like to see...only 360 hours!  Enjoy your highs in the 30s down there, Phil!  

If it happens - I will! And it would bust my entire (private) winter forecast -  which would make me so happy!!!!!

Thanks, Jonathan!

Now let us see what we shall see.

And BTW - Happy Thanksgiving (from the couch!).

Phil

 

PS - My trepidation is this is an 18Z run with nothing before it .... but maybe a broken GFS 18 Z clock is right twice a day

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Well, the 18z run of the GFS shows us the potential of what could happen if we did get a piece of that cold air that is bottled up. Not ready to bite on this run, but it shows what has been suggested by some of the long range guidance.

[griteater]

Euro Weeklies...

Week 2: Dec 1-8. Weak West -NAO, Deep Western U.S. trough, Ridging building toward Aleutian Islands. Colder than normal over most of the country (especially out west) except warmer than normal over FL and the coastal plain of the SE, and over the NE states.

Week 3: Dec 9-15. Prominent feature is strong Aleutian/Bering Strait ridge, with troughs centered off of both coasts (off WA state and off Maine coast). Temps are below normal coast to coast.

So, the models appear to be keying on a Pac jet slowdown and plunge of cold air into the states during week 3. To me, the location of the ridge in the Bering Strait would still favor the max cold anomalies in the W U.S. and upper Midwest. A colder look for the SE would be Gulf of AK to E AK ridging and/or stronger west -NAO. At any rate, it's an improved look for cold air

Week 4: Bering Strait ridge remains, but weak ridging and slight warm anoms takeover except for east coast

[NC_hailstorm]

GFS and UKMET both developing a secondary low on the front at hour 120-144 now.UKMET is further west and stronger over E.Kentucky while the GFS runs a weaker one up the NC piedmont.Let's hope it increases the rainfall as we get closer.

 

[NWNC2015]

Haven't seen that in a long time...drought ending rains for some. 

[jshetley]

The 6z GFS still looks nice, but I don't like being on the edge of the good rainfall. It's dry from Augusta GA to Raleigh NC and southeast from there. I'm betting this trends west and north, leaving the Carolinas and GA bone dry before it's over. It has also trended much warmer too, which is a very nice change. We don't need really cold weather until January.