Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion

[Cold Rain]

Western/SW US trough as far as the eye can see on operational guidance.

[packfan98]

11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Western/SW US trough as far as the eye can see on operational guidance.

It's time for the daily COLD RAIN approved teleconnection graphics!  Just don't bring out the "dumpster fire" picture! 

[Jon]

Watching the NAO. If we can get the ever-elusive November NAO, we will likely have cold then we can worry about the rest. 

Current GEFS forecast dives to -2 onward. If we can get this forecast inside 7 days as the chart shows, there isn't that much error as the 14 day forecast shown in this chart...we're around Day 10. The Euro is not as aggressive at development although it does develop a -NAO.

 

Here's the 300 hour GEFS mean, stout west based -NAO...this would be a complete pattern change.. Ignore all other details because if we get something like this set up, it means cold...

 

CFSv2 hinted at a strong -NAO setting up in the LR yesterday

 

 

[SnowDeac]

Will be in Playa del Carmen next week for a family vacation. Really hoping no tropical development makes its way into Mexico.

[gaweather1]

Some areas are in desperate need of rain and have not had a drop in close to two months.  I would welcome a tropical disturbance to help with the fires and smoke because of the drought.

[gaweather1]

The fires are also starting to creep near the metro area, so we are in desperate need of some rain as soon as possible.

[Stormcatt]

Watching the NAO. If we can get the ever-elusive November NAO, we will likely have cold then we can worry about the rest. 

Current GEFS forecast dives to -2 onward. If we can get this forecast inside 7 days as the chart shows, there isn't that much error as the 14 day forecast shown in this chart...we're around Day 10. The Euro is not as aggressive at development although it does develop a -NAO.



 

Here's the 300 hour GEFS mean, stout west based -NAO...this would be a complete pattern change.. Ignore all other details because if we get something like this set up, it means cold...



 

CFSv2 hinted at a strong -NAO setting up in the LR yesterday



 

 

eps is on board as well

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[Cold Rain]

Chilly rain (if we get precip), as long as that trough is out west.  But that's ok for November anyway.  Hopefully, the block stays around for winter and we get rid of the western trough.  If we don't, the response will be that downstream will want to ridge, which will be muted by the block but will still be the tendency, nonetheless.

[Cold Rain]

3 hours ago, packfan98 said:

It's time for the daily COLD RAIN approved teleconnection graphics!  Just don't bring out the "dumpster fire" picture! 

It's getting close to time to fire that up.  Hopefully, the dumpster fire can stay on the shelf for a while!

[Met1985]

It's amazing how far off the GFS and Euro are for this weekends trough. Usually the GFS is the aggressive one for cold but the Euro has been digging this weekends trough deeper and pulling out slower than the progressive GFS. This is the euros wheel house and has consistently been showing a digging trough and much slower. We will see but I like the euro better.

[Cold Rain]

Here's what I mean:

Check out the awesome block that develops at 252 (top left)!  Unfortunately, we have a trough along the west coast.  Systems move across the US and undercut the block, but you get enough ridging over the south central and southeastern US to keep us on the warm side of these systems (bottom right):

Same story at 300:

Same story at 384:

At least the block is long in duration, after it forms (assuming it does so).  In November, I don't care.  In December, that western trough really starts to matter.

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Here's what I mean:

Check out the awesome block that develops at 252 (top left)!  Unfortunately, we have a trough along the west coast.  Systems move across the US and undercut the block, but you get enough ridging over the south central and southeastern US to keep us on the warm side of these systems (bottom right):

Same story at 300:

Same story at 384:

At least the block is long in duration, after it forms (assuming it does so).  In November, I don't care.  In December, that western trough really starts to matter.

Yeah the Pacific is just screaming! I'm not really excited about much until maybe December. We might get left behind in a pattern change because of the SE ridge. As long as the West looks like crap I don't buy anything for us. Block  or no block.

[packfan98]

I think the long term pattern (and potential blockiness) will take some time to establish itself and mature enough to make a difference at our latitude.  Hopefully the pacific can straighten itself out.  Maybe we can get the SOI to tank and get some systems to break through in southern CA and work across the country.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Any cliff divers yet ? 

[Jon]

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Here's what I mean:

Check out the awesome block that develops at 252 (top left)!  Unfortunately, we have a trough along the west coast.  Systems move across the US and undercut the block, but you get enough ridging over the south central and southeastern US to keep us on the warm side of these systems (bottom right):

 

Same story at 300:

 

Same story at 384:

 

At least the block is long in duration, after it forms (assuming it does so).  In November, I don't care.  In December, that western trough really starts to matter.

Yeah, this is by no means a wintry precip pattern at all. NE folks will win out until the last 10 days of Dec and if Dec is to produce for the SE it will be late, but that's normal. -NAO in December doesn't spawn snow for the SE. There's a handful of events I can count since 1950 for RDU with -NAO in place in November/December that gives RDU snow. 2010 then 1993 I believe.

What I'm more interested is this can, with the help of other indices, bring cold for Dec if it holds. Cold getting established on our side of the globe, in Canada = good for Jan-Feb. The reason I'm liking the current modeling is this looks good for a BN December instead of the torch the cliff divers have been driving. We're simply overdue for a wall-to-wall -NAO winter. The pacific will be fixed in due time, get a raging -EPO and a block, then we'll see if we start seeing 1050mb highs diving into the central US. It takes time and we're right where we need to be for Mid-November.

[NCSNOW]

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Here's what I mean:

Check out the awesome block that develops at 252 (top left)!  Unfortunately, we have a trough along the west coast.  Systems move across the US and undercut the block, but you get enough ridging over the south central and southeastern US to keep us on the warm side of these system

At least the block is long in duration, after it forms (assuming it does so).  In November, I don't care.  In December, that western trough really starts to matter.

Ive said it before, you can have all the blocking you want, but if the pac is screwed up (neutral to -pna) then all your blocking is conus/lower48 pac jet driven air. Its fruitless for us in the SE. The pac (aka a Posotive PNA) is the big boy driver for those who desire winter weather in the SE. Winter weather includes Cold and dry not neccesarly winter precip/storms.

[Met1985]

Like Jon sad we really need a negative EPO to get going. Which it looks like the EPO may take some baby steps towards the end of the month .  I do like that Canada looks like it will finally get cold. Get about 2 to 3 feet of snow pack going and we would have some great Siberian highs come down. Also even with a negative AO look at where the cold air has stayed .  Across the globe. This also might be the case unless we get that PV to move on our side of the Northern Hemisphere .  Lots to look at and speculate on.

[Cold Rain]

37 minutes ago, Jon said:

Yeah, this is by no means a wintry precip pattern at all. NE folks will win out until the last 10 days of Dec and if Dec is to produce for the SE it will be late, but that's normal. -NAO in December doesn't spawn snow for the SE. There's a handful of events I can count since 1950 for RDU with -NAO in place in November/December that gives RDU snow. 2010 then 1993 I believe.

What I'm more interested is this can, with the help of other indices, bring cold for Dec if it holds. Cold getting established on our side of the globe, in Canada = good for Jan-Feb. The reason I'm liking the current modeling is this looks good for a BN December instead of the torch the cliff divers have been driving. We're simply overdue for a wall-to-wall -NAO winter. The pacific will be fixed in due time, get a raging -EPO and a block, then we'll see if we start seeing 1050mb highs diving into the central US. It takes time and we're right where we need to be for Mid-November.

Good post, Jon.  Completely agree.  Hopefully, this pattern, at the very least, will help build some snow pack in Canada.  That will be important down the line.

[Cold Rain]

39 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Ive said it before, you can have all the blocking you want, but if the pac is screwed up (neutral to -pna) then all your blocking is conus/lower48 pac jet driven air. Its fruitless for us in the SE. The pac (aka a Posotive PNA) is the big boy driver for those who desire winter weather in the SE. Winter weather includes Cold and dry not neccesarly winter precip/storms.

Agree with this too.  IMO, it's a lot easier to get a winter storm with a favorable Pacific and a bad Atlantic than it is with a favorable Atlantic and a bad Pacific.  That said, it's encouraging to see signs of a legit -NAO as we move into winter, for a change.  That, coupled with a more favorable stratosphere right now lends some hope for an early start to winter...IF we can eventually get the Pacific to come around.

[griteater]

Ensembles of GFS, Canadian, Euro all have the west based -NAO look going into early Dec.  Euro looks the worst with the Pacific side pattern, Canadian the best, GFS in between

[Jon]

9 minutes ago, griteater said:

Ensembles of GFS, Canadian, Euro all have the west based -NAO look going into early Dec.  Euro looks the worst with the Pacific side pattern, Canadian the best, GFS in between

Even the Beijing Climate Center Ensemble is showing it...haha. BTW, two days ago the runs on 11/13-14 were warm across entire USA in the second image

[No snow for you]

1 hour ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Any cliff divers yet ? 

 

The weenies will run wild this year. 

[Cold Rain]

I posted this image the afternoon of 11/8 in the banter thread (12z D10 Euro 500 mb forecast):

Now, 8 days later (12z D10 500 mb Euro forecast):

The more things change, the more they stay the same!

[Stormcatt]

I posted this image the afternoon of 11/8 in the banter thread (12z D10 Euro 500 mb forecast):



Now, 8 days later (12z D10 500 mb Euro forecast):



The more things change, the more they stay the same!

the real change comes post day 10 ( like always ) . but all the nice blocking that's showing on the gfs gefs and eps is post day ten .

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[pcbjr]

53 minutes ago, Stormcatt said:

the real change comes post day 10 ( like always ) . but all the nice blocking that's showing on the gfs gefs and eps is post day ten .

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T minus 10 and counting .....

Oops - Cancel launch due to inclement weather .... We'll try launch again as soon as conditions warrant.

[Cold Rain]

37 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

T minus 10 and counting .....

Oops - Cancel launch due to inclement weather .... We'll try launch again as soon as conditions warrant.

Lol!  That's about right!

[Jon]

New JMA Seasonal shows block staring to form by Week 2 (Nov26-Dec2). Week 3&4 14-day mean (Dec2-16) cold USA w/ -NAO block.

Remember the 2nd image is a 2 week mean, son in another week we'll be able to see Week 3 as a stand alone image which would give us a better idea of the first week of dec.
Not a bad 2 week mean image at all.

[packbacker]

Past few runs of the always reliable CFS is similar to the JMA. 

 

[Cold Rain]

That first image is pretty good, Pack.

[Stormcatt]

what's not good is the idea of nice blocking with troughs on each side of the US . If winter plays out like this with nice blocking and no PNA at all, shoot me now

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