Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion

[FallsLake]

Well the 6z GFS says we could see our first widespread frost/freeze next weekend. Dew points solidly in the 20s and even some teens will overspread the entire SE. We'll then just need some clear skies and calm winds to finally get the first freezing temps behind us.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

On 11/2/2016 at 10:56 AM, packbacker said:

Impressive 4 month stretch of AN temps.  Would be nice to see that reverse when we look at it come March.

This must not be Fahrenheit because it shows Atlanta 1-2 above normal when it's actually been over 4 degrees above normal since July 1.

[Avdave]

2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Well the 6z GFS says we could see our first widespread frost/freeze next weekend. Dew points solidly in the 20s and even some teens will overspread the entire SE. We'll then just need some clear skies and calm winds to finally get the first freezing temps behind us.

That would be superb and kill off any outside allergies that are left.

[packbacker]

1 hour ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

This must not be Fahrenheit because it shows Atlanta 1-2 above normal when it's actually been over 4 degrees above normal since July 1.

Correct...it's in Kelvin so just double it for F for a rough estimate. 

[FallsLake]

52 minutes ago, Avdave said:

That would be superb and kill off any outside allergies that are left.

12z continues if not increases the threat. More dew points in the teens. 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

28 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

12z continues if not increases the threat. More dew points in the teens. 

Better than dew points in the 70s.

[jshetley]

1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

12z continues if not increases the threat. More dew points in the teens. 

Hopefully it's wrong on both the temps and precip. Cold and dry is a disaster of useless weather.

[jshetley]

1 hour ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Better than dew points in the 70s.

I'd take those dewpoints to get rain again.

[Daniel Boone]

mjo going to have a say in pattern. this no cold or snow untill late dec. based on other drivers alone is making a mistake i.m.o...sure, pac jet is formidable but, it can be overcome, at least for a for periods until pac forcing changes.

[Avdave]

4 hours ago, FallsLake said:

12z continues if not increases the threat. More dew points in the teens. 

   That works for me the sooner the better. Im miserable here

2 hours ago, jshetley said:

Hopefully it's wrong on both the temps and precip. Cold and dry is a disaster of useless weather.

No way, I need the cold to kill off the allergy pollens left that are still hanging on out there.

[NWNC2015]

2 hours ago, jshetley said:

Hopefully it's wrong on both the temps and precip. Cold and dry is a disaster of useless weather.

Need to cool the ground temp for any early season potential in December. 

[Jon]

On 11/4/2016 at 5:01 PM, griteater said:

Ensembles are weakening the North Pac low beginning around Nov 15th.  That date has been getting pushed out on the model runs, but in the past few days, the runs are holding a bit more and not pushing the date out.  We'll see, it could just be a temporary thing where the models resume with the delay.  Anyway, as the N Pac low weakens, some western ridging goes up, and we start to see some below normal temps show up (850mb) via central to eastern U.S. troughing.  GFS Ensemble doesn't really build the W Coast ridging and is the warmest of the 3 (Canadian / Euro).

We have a winner!

12z GEFS - Bye Bye N Pac low

 

-EPO in Nov

 

This is (probably) the real deal now. 

[NWNC2015]

Watch the EURO...Tropical Storm Otto in the GOM...hitting the Florida panhandle then up into NC. That was last nights run. EURO typically doesn't have a formation bias and this was at hour 200ish. Probably not fully tropical in eastern NC however but could be a pattern changing storm. 

[Met1985]

Read on the weather channel that the jet stream is stuck so we are screwed because of the big storms in the North Pacific . 

[NWNC2015]

Not going to take much to see a winter system in this pattern we are heading into late November through Christmas outside of the mountains. This season is ripe for early potential IMO before leveling off for awhile after Christmas. Don't be surprised to see a winter storm show up on the models over the next few weeks.

[NWNC2015]

Good run on the GFS 18z lays down a good swath of a few inches of snow for the NC high country through hour 240 might help put out the fires

[packfan98]

Weather looks to get more active (wet) on the long rage GFS.  Maybe a sign of a pattern change.  Looks to have a couple of systems tracking across the the continental US.

[BristowWx]

going to take quite a few steps down the ladder to get even close to something that resembles winter.  It seems the LR op GFS is only very consistent when it shows warmth.  Next week is mid-month and not seeing much of a change so that notion doesn't have legs from what I can see.  

[mackerel_sky]

I like JB, but he's breaking out the 240 hr Euro, to prove his pattern change point! A week ago, he was sure it would start by the 15th, now I guess it's the 20th or later! Looks like November is toast, literally and figuratively ! December will save us!?

[BristowWx]

So this go around of the LR GFS 18z shows what looks like a -PNA - NAO if I am reading that correct.  Not sure what to think about that.  Not a common one but interesting compared to this pattern.  

[NWNC2015]

holly **** at the 6z for Thanksgiving Day in the S/E

[NWNC2015]

below freezing Florida

low to mid teens in the NC mountains

low 20s Piedmont GA, SC, NC

highs stuck in the 30s in the MTNS

storm fires off the east coast, no precip inland, major snow for Canada as it hooks

[BristowWx]

I saw that...lets see if it holds up but it is a wild change from 24 hours ago which is totally expected looking at an OP run.  Interesting that we all want the classic cold pattern for EC which is great but it often means cold and dry.  Still, I will take anything but sunny and 60. 

[jshetley]

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I saw that...lets see if it holds up but it is a wild change from 24 hours ago which is totally expected looking at an OP run.  Interesting that we all want the classic cold pattern for EC which is great but it often means cold and dry.  Still, I will take anything but sunny and 60. 

I'm hoping it's wrong, especially on those temps. That's way too cold.

[FallsLake]

That's definitely the look/pattern we want to see at Thanksgiving and beyond. As others have said above it's still too far out to hang our hats on but something for us to monitor.

[NWNC2015]

I would rather have that offshore system bring us mild rain than to be on the cold west dry side. 15 days out it can and will change! 

[nrgjeff]

Of course wait a few runs. 06Z ensemble is more tempered, in line with the 00z op/ens. Actually I'd rather that 00Z flow. Broad below normal heights over the Southeast may not be as cold as the 06Z Op but the latter is subject to dry northwest flow. 

At any rate the European and Canadian ensembles are warmer than those from the GFS. Weekly charts show only glancing cold fronts. Looks like an overall mild November. If it goes through December I would not lose heart. Southeast does best with snow leveraging a good pattern in January or February. Even if both months are orange, it only takes a 2-3 week cold pattern to get it done. I remain optimistic.

[FallsLake]

So RAH is still talking about the likely freeze for this weekend. They're also looking at the possibility of some rain early next week, but this is only shown on the Euro and they, at this point, consider it an outlier:

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
As of 320 AM THURSDAY...

The long term will start off very chilly as a cold airmass moves in
from the north on Saturday with temperatures topping out in the mid
50s with northeasterly winds in the 5-10 kt range with a few higher
gusts. Temperatures on Saturday night will get down to near or below
the freezing mark in most locations and will likely prompt
frost/freeze products to be put out later this week. Beginning on
Sunday temperatures will begin to warm back into the 60s during the
day and eventually moderate into the 40s for overnight lows.

The forecast for now is to remain dry throughout the period, however
there has been a new development in the ECMWF and Canadian model 00z
runs showing a cutoff upper low and subsequent development of a
surface low on Sunday night over Tennessee and moving across North
Carolina on Monday. This has the potential to bring precipitation to
central NC early next week but it should be noted that this is an
outlier solution at this point and the operational GFS and many
ensemble members have yet to show this activity. Therefore, have
ramped up cloud cover in the forecast on these days but have not yet
included any precipitation. If further consistency becomes more
apparent over the next several model runs this will begin to be
regarded as a better possibility.
 

[FallsLake]

4 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Of course wait a few runs. 06Z ensemble is more tempered, in line with the 00z op/ens. Actually I'd rather that 00Z flow. Broad below normal heights over the Southeast may not be as cold as the 06Z Op but the latter is subject to dry northwest flow. 

At any rate the European and Canadian ensembles are warmer than those from the GFS. Weekly charts show only glancing cold fronts. Looks like an overall mild November. If it goes through December I would not lose heart. Southeast does best with snow leveraging a good pattern in January or February. Even if both months are orange, it only takes a 2-3 week cold pattern to get it done. I remain optimistic.

Thanks Jeff! I'm just really pulling for a cold pattern to take hold the end of the month going into December. It has seemed in years past this is a good sign of how the pattern for winter could be setting up; or at least the first part of winter... 

[NWNC2015]

58 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

At any rate the European and Canadian ensembles are warmer than those from the GFS. Weekly charts show only glancing cold fronts. Looks like an overall mild November. If it goes through December I would not lose heart. Southeast does best with snow leveraging a good pattern in January or February. Even if both months are orange, it only takes a 2-3 week cold pattern to get it done. I remain optimistic.

I disagree writing off late November and December in certain years should make you lose heart. This is one of those years. Piedmont areas have had many a winters with snow on the front end before blazing the rest of winter. I like our chances late November into December over January wholeheartedly!! I will have more of an opinion on February/March later on.