El Kabong Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: That first image is pretty good, Pack. One of the highlights of the winter is the daily GIF summary of the indices from CR. Keep 'em coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 the problem continues to be that vortex in eastern siberia. it's possible that thing gets pushed west or wsw by the blocking in time but, until it gets far enough or weakened considerably, it'll still hinder cpf from siberia. would be nice for it to move south into aleutians but forcing from the south is preventing that. Good thing is,if -nao does become strong,systems will be forced under it and there still should eventually be enough cold to produce snow in much of the east, imo..may be rain to snow in areas below 40 lat. but prob. pretty good wrap around particularly apps on west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Odds are improving of at least seasonable cold in the Carolinas during December. NAO going negative is of course helpful. Fly in the ointment is a possible return of Western storminess and a Plains Chinook. Warmth may bleed over into my Tennessee Valley. Carolinas, in contrast, could see more back door fronts. I'm fairly confident the less warm pattern change this weekend should go through early December. Mid-December Western storminess may ease up. If at the same time a -NAO is still in place, the Southeast could finally get the below normal temps. While it might take a while, change is in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 It's funny but it not that the 12Z GFS has a persistent SE ridge through a large portion of its run in the LR. The cold air is in the west. Book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Any persistent cold, if any ever, is going to be a long while coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 Snowpack to the north building across the higher elevations as we close out November. Maybe that will help shift the storm track further south in early December and or cause transfers to the coast of NC. All of the above at least supports more wintry weather for our mountains coming rather soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 You can see on the GFS that the cold is persistent along the west coast and we kind of stay in weak ridging. Really the whole east coast stays normal to above normal if this is the trend. It will be interesting to see if the weeklies continue the cold them with the indices looking the way they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 8-14 day outlook from the CPC is above normal precip for just about everyone except Texas! Crazy looking pattern/map about to unfold in December maybe a sign of change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 42 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: 8-14 day outlook from the CPC is above normal precip for just about everyone except Texas! Crazy looking pattern/map about to unfold in December maybe a sign of change. Unfortunately it's also showing above normal temps for most of the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 I got this from the upstate NY forum. It looks like it's from an AFD up there and something iv been harping about. Looking further down theroad at the November to December transition week...there are still no strong signs among the medium to long range ensembles of any significant cold weather for the Great Lakes region. The two main features to watch for...a staunch West Coast ridge and/or significant downstream blocking over the northern Atlantic...are both absent. Meanwhile a progressive...generally low amplitude Pacific dominated flow will remain in place across the lower 48 with a strong nearly zonal jet over the north Pacific. This type of pattern should continue to keep the coldest air of the Northern Hemisphere on the other side of the Pole where it has been trapped since the start of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Yes remember early Nov when Thanksgiving week was looking to be more winter like. All I see is a mild pattern with temps on the warm side of normal. Tough be enthused about our prospects for December. I have no doubt it will get cold some days but sustained December to remember...bah humbug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 But THE BLOCK IS GONNA LOCK, Then the US WINTER WILL ROCK!! yada yada yada etc.................. You just wait and see! NOW when Fab FEB is here and if we're still waiting for the block to form, well it's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said: But THE BLOCK IS GONNA LOCK, Then the US WINTER WILL ROCK!! yada yada yada etc.................. You just wait and see! NOW when Fab FEB is here and if we're still waiting for the block to form, well it's over Delayed, but not denied !! @bigjoebastardi!! Lol did make it down to 24 degrees, I guess the pattern change is here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 One thing is for sure: This December will be much colder than last December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 2 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said: But THE BLOCK IS GONNA LOCK, Then the US WINTER WILL ROCK!! yada yada yada etc.................. You just wait and see! NOW when Fab FEB is here and if we're still waiting for the block to form, well it's over Oh the block will form but the cold air will not be on our side of the globe. we will only have marginal cold to work with but the ao looks like it will be just slightly negative now and the nao to marginal at best. The cold air will be in Siberia . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 31 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Oh the block will form but the cold air will not be on our side of the globe. we will only have marginal cold to work with but the ao looks like it will be just slightly negative now and the nao to marginal at best. The cold air will be in Siberia . God have mercy on us if we do tap into that Siberian cold this winter... can you say Jan '85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 20, 2016 Author Share Posted November 20, 2016 0z gfs day7 was a dump of wet snow for Wilkes/Surry and the mountains. Advisory criteria snow northern Piedmont too. Transfers off the coast of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 28 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: God have mercy on us if we do tap into that Siberian cold this winter... can you say Jan '85. Yeah no kidding! I was thinking if the whole pattern re shuffled in January and that super cold air is on our side of the globe . SIberia is super cold anyways but I think they are running like 20 to 30 degrees below average. That would be a wow factor ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Oh the block will form but the cold air will not be on our side of the globe. we will only have marginal cold to work with but the ao looks like it will be just slightly negative now and the nao to marginal at best. The cold air will be in Siberia . What is JB seeing, That no one else is?? Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 41s41 seconds agoState College, PA NCEP MJO circles back into cold phase 1 in December .. Combined with strong neg AO means hugely different holiday season vs very warm 14/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 4 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: What is JB seeing, That no one else is?? Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 41s41 seconds agoState College, PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 1 minute ago, jburns said: Yeah, I know that much!! lol. But Bad forecasts = LESS $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 12 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: What is JB seeing, That no one else is?? Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 41s41 seconds agoState College, PA NCEP MJO circles back into cold phase 1 in December .. Combined with strong neg AO means hugely different holiday season vs very warm 14/15 I have no clue but yeah what Burns said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Oh the block will form but the cold air will not be on our side of the globe. we will only have marginal cold to work with but the ao looks like it will be just slightly negative now and the nao to marginal at best. The cold air will be in Siberia . We don't need cross polar flow to "move the cold" from siberia. The cold there has been the result of the high latitude blocking pattern. North America can easily build it's own cold we just need a break from the pac jet scouring every chance. That seems to be on the horizon but we'll have to wait...as usual. The GEFS and to a lesser extent the EPS are finally showing higher heights in AK&NW Canada pressing poleward. If this happens, cold will build very quickly in western Canada. The first real cold outbreak in the conus looks like the west right now but that is fine. Once the storm cycle in the intermountain west runs its course it will usually be replaced by a broad ridge in the western conus. Similar to what the euro weeklies showed for the second and third week of Dec. It's only Nov 20th and the pattern across NA is going through a large change over the next two weeks. I'm fairly optimistic that a solid wintry period will happen in the east during Dec. Snow chances if any will be embedded in the chaos so who knows on that. But as far as a "real" winter pattern goes...I'm thinking we have a good chance coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We don't need cross polar flow to "move the cold" from siberia. The cold there has been the result of the high latitude blocking pattern. North America can easily build it's own cold we just need a break from the pac jet scouring every chance. That seems to be on the horizon but we'll have to wait...as usual. The GEFS and to a lesser extent the EPS are finally showing higher heights in AK&NW Canada pressing poleward. If this happens, cold will build very quickly in western Canada. The first real cold outbreak in the conus looks like the west right now but that is fine. Once the storm cycle in the intermountain west runs its course it will usually be replaced by a broad ridge in the western conus. Similar to what the euro weeklies showed for the second and third week of Dec. It's only Nov 20th and the pattern across NA is going through a large change over the next two weeks. I'm fairly optimistic that a solid wintry period will happen in the east during Dec. Snow chances if any will be embedded in the chaos so who knows on that. But as far as a "real" winter pattern goes...I'm thinking we have a good chance coming up. Thanks for the post ... we always welcome your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 12 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Thanks for the post ... we always welcome your thoughts. +1 Thanks Bob!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Thanks folks. I say this multiple times per year. I root for you southern enthusiasts. I wasn't singling out Met1985 with the cold stuck in siberia post. They're all over the board. Siberia isn't stealing anything from us. The pacific is. Tightly spaced shortwaves traversing the north pacific/bering sea one by one and each one brings the roaring jet with it. It's been relentless and will continue over the near term. We can "grow our own cold" no problem but things need to get right first. It's been a long freight train from eastern siberia to north America and still going It's starting to look semi-likely that the barrage will be slowing down or coming to an end. The d12-16 mean shows a large expanse of AN heights in places that we want them. This allows cold to build in western Canada. Since the mean ridge is in the GOA, the first place in the conus to get the cold is the west. Making some huge assumptions at long leads here but it makes sense in my mind that the mean ridge axis will progress eastward into the western US down the line. At that point the upper midwest into the east would be in the cross hairs for a more direct shot of cold and not a long moderating traverse from the west. In the mean time things look to continue with an active storm pattern and fluctuating temps. No extended warmth or cold regardless of the AO/NAO. Just typical late fall/early winter weather. Better than roasting for weeks I suppose unless that's your thing. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 NCEP, EPS and GEFS all show the AO dipping close to -3...how much lower do you want it to go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Good work Bob. The Canadian Ensemble actually looks better than the GEFS....the one thing I wonder though is, like you mentioned, it seems like the relaxing of the pattern in the NE Pacific shows up on the extended modeling, but then fails at go time. We could probably go back in the archive and view the extended maps and see this clearly. The Pac train is on a roll at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: NCEP, EPS and GEFS all show the AO dipping close to -3...how much lower do you want it to go? It can't be too far negative in by book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Just now, griteater said: It can't be too far negative in by book Meaning....the lower the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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