Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion

[FlatLander48]

Although the odds are not realistically  probable in this scenario, I would not be surprised if the overall pattern of warm and dry lasted til spring. I'm sure that over the winter months we will see a storm or two make it into the area, but with how stubborn this pattern has been since summer and with the La Nina getting going, I think warm and dry is our future for a while.

[mackerel_sky]

40 minutes ago, jshetley said:

 This pattern isn't going anywhere since it matches perfectly with LaNina. The GFS is slowly backing off on the rain now with much of NC down to .50 or less and I think the west and north trend isn't over yet. I can see it being bone dry well into Dec now. Most areas east of a Birmingham AL to Nashville Tenn line will be lucky to get 5 inches of rain from now right through March. Normal is between 15-20 inches for that period, but most places will not get remotely close to that. 

I don't care if I get 5" of precip between now and March, as long as it's liquid equivalent! 

[pcbjr]

3 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Although the odds are not realistically  probable in this scenario, I would not be surprised if the overall pattern of warm and dry lasted til spring. I'm sure that over the winter months we will see a storm or two make it into the area, but with how stubborn this pattern has been since summer and with the La Nina getting going, I think warm and dry is our future for a while.

That's a start - now wish it to happen

[Met1985]

How are we doing with La Nina? If I'm not mistaken it very weak and I do not think it is going to strengthen through spring according to the forecasts. TO me the ENSO is not going to solely drive this pattern like it did last winter.

[NWNC2015]

Need the low to shift S/E December 1st and wouldn't be far off for a overrunning event in the MTNS/HILLS and VA piedmont. Need it about 5 degrees cooler for most. 

[Bob Chill]

Met1985 asked if I could post some euro weeklies thoughts since they haven't been posted yet tonight. 

 

Pattern rolls forward with a +pna/-epo/-nao/-ao week 3 into week 4. Then a couple relaxes and reloads through early Jan. It's a see saw pattern and far from a disaster. Would offer at least some chances if the general idea is correct. The run never loses the -AO/NAO look. AN heights in the high latitudes start to finish but that doesn't mean cold start to finish either. Ups and downs.

The thing about the western conus trough showing up inside of 2 weeks is that is won't be permanent or last for a month or 2 or 3 straight. It never does. There will be ridges in the west at times. My total wag is we start seeing the progression to a trough east/ridge west showing up on guidance before this week is over. If the winter is going to see saw then it's probably best that we are on the crappy side for the next 2 weeks. It's really early. IF it's going to get cold with snow chances it's best if that holds off until mid Dec. NE thinks differently and they should. Prime time doesn't really begin until the second half of Dec for the MA and SE.   

[Met1985]

56 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Met1985 asked if I could post some euro weeklies thoughts since they haven't been posted yet tonight. 

 

Pattern rolls forward with a +pna/-epo/-nao/-ao week 3 into week 4. Then a couple relaxes and reloads through early Jan. It's a see saw pattern and far from a disaster. Would offer at least some chances if the general idea is correct. The run never loses the -AO/NAO look. AN heights in the high latitudes start to finish but that doesn't mean cold start to finish either. Ups and downs.

The thing about the western conus trough showing up inside of 2 weeks is that is won't be permanent or last for a month or 2 or 3 straight. It never does. There will be ridges in the west at times. My total wag is we start seeing the progression to a trough east/ridge west showing up on guidance before this week is over. If the winter is going to see saw then it's probably best that we are on the crappy side for the next 2 weeks. It's really early. IF it's going to get cold with snow chances it's best if that holds off until mid Dec. NE thinks differently and they should. Prime time doesn't really begin until the second half of Dec for the MA and SE.   

Thank you good sir!

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

4 hours ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Although the odds are not realistically  probable in this scenario, I would not be surprised if the overall pattern of warm and dry lasted til spring. I'm sure that over the winter months we will see a storm or two make it into the area, but with how stubborn this pattern has been since summer and with the La Nina getting going, I think warm and dry is our future for a while.

Didn't expect to see SE forum "cliff-jumpers" in late November. That's a first for me...

[FlatLander48]

1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Didn't expect to see SE forum "cliff-jumpers" in late November. That's a first for me...

So because I believe the La Nina, Pacific jet, and the Atlantic are against us and don't show a sign within 10 days of helping us and keep being pushed farther and farther back means I'm a cliff jumper then I just  jumped off the Grand Canyon. look at the models. every time we start closing in on a pattern change it gets pushed back. Like I said I expect a storm or two to come in at some point, but the odds of having a lot of the things we need to happen to get a good, sustained pattern don't seem likely right now. I'm not cliff jumping, I'm calling it as I see it. so stop calling people cliff jumpers just because they don't sit here and call for a blowout winter for everyone.

[Met1985]

One thing about this pattern coming up is that it will be great for building snow pack up in Canada and finally getting Canada cold and snowy like we need it to be.

[Cold Rain]

[FlatLander48]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

One thing about this pattern coming up is that it will be great for building snow pack up in Canada and finally getting Canada cold and snowy like we need it to be.

Looking at the 6z GFS, the amount of cold appearing in Canada from the beginning of the run to end is impressive.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

8 hours ago, AsheCounty48 said:

So because I believe the La Nina, Pacific jet, and the Atlantic are against us and don't show a sign within 10 days of helping us and keep being pushed farther and farther back means I'm a cliff jumper then I just  jumped off the Grand Canyon. look at the models. every time we start closing in on a pattern change it gets pushed back. Like I said I expect a storm or two to come in at some point, but the odds of having a lot of the things we need to happen to get a good, sustained pattern don't seem likely right now. I'm not cliff jumping, I'm calling it as I see it. so stop calling people cliff jumpers just because they don't sit here and call for a blowout winter for everyone.

    First off, this is a poor excuse for a La-Nina. Second, looking 10 days ahead barely gets us to Met winter. You are only getting a snap-shot of what is happening now. This is not a raging +AO / +NAO pattern. We should be paying more attention to what's happening with the MJO, EPO and QBO in weak ENSO years. Lastly, one thing I have learned over the years is to not trust what is being modeled 10 days out. All I see right now is normal November weather.  As the wavelengths go though their seasonal change, you will see a difference in the way storms propagate across the Pacific and North America. The latitude of the storm track will decrease. That is a given.

   Looking back at years where we had a very cold Siberia early in winter, we can expect at some point to get a chunk of that cold. It will not stay bottled up there indefinitely.

 

[Bob Chill]

40 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

    First off, this is a poor excuse for a La-Nina. Second, looking 10 days ahead barely gets us to Met winter. You are only getting a snap-shot of what is happening now. This is not a raging +AO / +NAO pattern. We should be paying more attention to what's happening with the MJO, EPO and QBO in weak ENSO years. Lastly, one thing I have learned over the years is to not trust what is being modeled 10 days out. All I see right now is normal November weather.  As the wavelengths go though their seasonal change, you will see a difference in the way storms propagate across the Pacific and North America. The latitude of the storm track will decrease. That is a given.

   Looking back at years where we had a very cold Siberia early in winter, we can expect at some point to get a chunk of that cold. It will not stay bottled up there indefinitely.

 

Agree and good post. November is a transition month. I don't think anyone (even the best met or computer on the planet) knows where things are going through DJF. It's a tricky year. Anything is possible. Personally, I'm expecting a winter of ups and downs in my yard with nothing dominating for weeks on end like we've had the last 3 years. 

Even though we aren't locked into cold in the east like many want, a very significant pattern change has started. Mid Oct through mid Nov featured a very persistent and very stable GOA vortex. NA was completely dominated by pacific air top to bottom. 

 

 

The jet roaring from eastern siberia into NA meant business. 

 

 

The pac appears to be poised for a significant and possibly stable change in height patterns and the jet is buckling. This is allowing cold to build in western canada very quickly. It doesn't take long this time of year. Vast areas of AN temps can be replaced by below normal in less than a week. 

 

 

Since the trough and first real cold is breaking out in the west and not the east it may "feel" the same here but we are clearly moving out of the extremely boring and warm pattern across the US. It's pretty common for the west to get it first too. Hardly unprecedented and no reason to worry. If the GOA vortex and pac jet was still rolling along with no end in sight then I would be getting a little nervous about Dec. Now that things are shaking up a little we can get nervous about other stuff. LOL. 

 

The burning question is whether the pattern continues to roll forward over time with a ridge building in the west through the pna & epo regions and if it does...when? My guess is it does but it will takes it's good ole time doing it. Mid Dec seems like a reasonable guess. 

 

Things to worry about...

The ridge building in the GOA region retros west and here we go again...lol. Or, by the time a ridge does build in the west we lose the established blocking pattern around GL/HB and our weather is warm/wet followed by cold/dry. 

 

[FlatLander48]

45 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

    First off, this is a poor excuse for a La-Nina. Second, looking 10 days ahead barely gets us to Met winter. You are only getting a snap-shot of what is happening now. This is not a raging +AO / +NAO pattern. We should be paying more attention to what's happening with the MJO, EPO and QBO in weak ENSO years. Lastly, one thing I have learned over the years is to not trust what is being modeled 10 days out. All I see right now is normal November weather.  As the wavelengths go though their seasonal change, you will see a difference in the way storms propagate across the Pacific and North America. The latitude of the storm track will decrease. That is a given.

   Looking back at years where we had a very cold Siberia early in winter, we can expect at some point to get a chunk of that cold. It will not stay bottled up there indefinitely.

 

While i'm in agreement with everything you have said the basic reasoning why I'm thinking like I am for at least the first part of winter is this: We were in a La Nina pattern since summer before it even got set up. My thinking is that since the pattern got set up before the La Nina appeared, is that with the help with La Nina, although weak, would make it that much harder for a significant change for around here. We all know patterns that have been against us have been hard to break for the past couple of years. But as Bob mentioned, if the PAC begins to stable out and that cold starts building to the West, then we start to get in business(Very good post bob, as usual). I'm just mostly skeptical on model guidance past day 10 after that mess we had last winter.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Forget the cold air. Can we just get a freaking rain drop here ? Every system that comes through seems to dry up before it gets here. Why am I supposed to think the system next week will be any different ?

[Brick Tamland]

Matthew East said in his video today he sees a pattern change coming next week. He said it looks like it will be more active, and even a chance of severe weather next week.

 

[Cold Rain]

My concern is the propensity for troughing though the SW US and ridging over/south of the Gulf and off the SE coast.  We can easily have a -EPO along with a trough in the SW US...i.e. cold Canada and northern tier, which definitely qualifies as a substantial pattern change, while the SE/south central ridge keeps us warm and keeps the storm track west of the area.  Even if we get a -NAO, I could see this type of pattern remaining in place for a good while yet.

We have absolutely got to get rid of the western trough.  It just has to go, plain and simple.  If it doesn't, it will take a MONSTER -NAO to squash the downstream response to the western trough...which is the SE ridge.

The good news is that it's still November.  Assuming some of the elements shift to a more favorable pattern, the question marks arise around other elements that may act to counter the benefits for our area.  I do not anticipate a wall to wall warm and dry winter, although I would not bet against a warm winter in the means.  We'll have cold shots and storm chances.  But it may take a good while.

[griteater]

12z GFS is blocky downstream and pretty wet for some fire relief beginning next week

[jshetley]

28 minutes ago, griteater said:

12z GFS is blocky downstream and pretty wet for some fire relief beginning next week

Finally starting to show up under 10 days too. The 12z says good rains begin in 8 days. Hopefully this time it's real.

[Met1985]

21 minutes ago, griteater said:

12z GFS is blocky downstream and pretty wet for some fire relief beginning next week

Yeah was just going to say that the 12Z GFS looks much wetter around here. Shoot right now I would take 70 with about 3 inches of rain. Super cold means dry and we really don't need super cold right now. Yeah next week does look to set the stage for a pattern change which probably will take 2 to 3 weeks. Even though the trough is primarily in the west we do not roast like you would think. I still think we average out to normal over the next 2 weeks. Also man oh man Canada goes polar. I know it's a ways out but seeing -20 degrees on the 2m temps in Canada is a relief for future cold outbreaks . I'm beginning to get a bit more optimistic but only a little. also great discussion guys. I think this season has been filled with irregular patterns and weather and it's extremely frustrating at the moment. I do think all in all we will be fine. A couple of storms and most should be happy. It is still only November. Shoot we roasted last December and still ended up getting a two foot snow storm.  

[franklin NCwx]

-Pna should deliver the rain for us.

[Met1985]

The initial trough on the Euro is much further Easy than on previous runs. Stronger storm, stronger cold front, and pulls in more cold air also. This is at the very end of the month.

[PisgahNCWeather]

Baby steps but it least there is potential for some big league cold later on. Seems like wet comes first and then the temp change.  So looking forward to the moisture and concur that I would be happy with 70 and rain.

[downeastnc]

28 minutes ago, PisgahNCWeather said:

Baby steps but it least there is potential for some big league cold later on. Seems like wet comes first and then the temp change.  So looking forward to the moisture and concur that I would be happy with 70 and rain.

That's pretty typical for this time of year though.......warms up for rains then cold front comes through and we cool back down and slowly moderate till we get a storm and rain then cold front then cold air again.....if we can get the blocking setup even if its just for a few weeks at a time we stand a decent shot at some winter weather....

[Met1985]

59 minutes ago, PisgahNCWeather said:

Baby steps but it least there is potential for some big league cold later on. Seems like wet comes first and then the temp change.  So looking forward to the moisture and concur that I would be happy with 70 and rain.

Lol I know it sounds crazy but you and me both understand that statement. The smoke today is horrible.

[NWNC2015]

I like end of the GFS run...-11 degrees in the mid west and getting colder. More times than not, it will rain itself out in the Carolinas before any super cold dry outbreak can slide on east. 

Maybe we can squeeze out two significant precip events before a few brutal days of cold first half of December.

Very believable run to me because of climo resemblance. 

[griteater]

3 hours ago, jshetley said:

Finally starting to show up under 10 days too. The 12z says good rains begin in 8 days. Hopefully this time it's real.

Euro came in on the drier side, but it appeared to be related to unlucky / untimely wave interaction (which could happen)....however, the Euro Ensemble came in on the wet side and has a pattern favoring multiple precip chances next week thru the end of the run

[griteater]

6 to 10 day from CPC...would be a sight for sore eyes...

"TELECONNECTIONS ON THE NEGATIVE ANOMALY CENTER PREDICTED AT 36N AND 99W RAISES THE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS."

[NC_hailstorm]

Nice 582dm ridge sliding into the west coast by day 7.

Also have a well placed stronger 588dm ridge of the SE coast by then.With a strong placed ridge there it keeps fronts from blasting through and we get multiple rounds of heavy rain chances for a week or longer.Not great for winter weather but good for precip until it finally gets beaten down.