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Hoosier

July 2016 General Discussion

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16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Lakes are much warmer than last year.

https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13680585_979503018829722_2072185334447354283_n.png?oh=b4a0f3e27478964923ce7bf5b7917802&oe=58303235

 

We've had a ton of great Beach / Boating this year compared to the previous 3 Summers. 

You didn't even here activities such as going to the Beach, turning on the water sprinkler or going out on the boat discussed during the 2013-2015 period. Instead, everyone was complaining about it being too cold / rainy to do the aforementioned things.

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24 minutes ago, Powerball said:

 

We've had a ton of great Beach / Boating this year compared to the previous 3 Summers. 

You didn't even here activities such as going to the Beach, turning on the water sprinkler or going out on the boat discussed during the 2013-2015 period. Instead, everyone was complaining about it being too cold / rainy to do the aforementioned things.

 

Yeah I've been at the beach at least 1-2 times per week. I live about 10 mins away from it. Erie warms pretty quickly so even in the colder summers we get beach water temps. Today was the first day where the water was a little to warm to even cool off. This summer has been very hot and dry around these parts.

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8 hours ago, Powerball said:

In the mean time, it's going to be another nail biter as far as achieving that 3rd consecutive 90*F+ day tomorrow. While I never want to underestimate the power of that downsloping wind, I'm also concerned about potential convection and its debris (based on progged mid-level RH values).

 

 

 

Actually, I believe an official heatwave is 3 consecutive days of 95+ or 5 consecutive days of 90+, not just 3 consecutive days of 90+. Regardless, 3 consecutive 90 would be the first time in 3 years.

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I missed out on most of the rain yesterday, just to my south in the city of Howell, there was a major downpour. I probably picked up a trace. Bummer.

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Powerball special today here at DTW, 89 as of 9 minutes ago.

DTW does them best.

Pretty much knew any chance of 90*F was shot today when the stratus settled in mid-morning.

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The long term discussion by Sam Lashley at IWX sounds like it was co-authored by Hoosier and Alek. Emphasis is on the heat dome and the chance it may get squashed/held to the west of most of us .

Northwest flow aloft to become more pronounced by mid week as plains
ridge builds and expands. The impressive and rare 600 DAM
heights make an appearance centered over the plains by Wednesday.
While heights will build eastward over our area...flow remains
northwest as it has in this repeated pattern all summer with
convective short waves impeding its northeast expansion. Result
could be more remnant MCS activity for us with additional pcpn
chances or cloud cover which would severely hamper temperatures.
Thus we prefer to remain on conservative side with temps as this
pattern has repeated a few times this summer and we have seen the
remnant clouds and lower temps. Granted this is an impressive ridge
and any further northward expansion would quickly bring dome
overhead and force any ring of fire convection north of our area. 

 

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Was a much more pleasant day humidity wise. Drove into SD today on the way to Washington. 

Became quitearrow-10x10.png breezy in MN today.

Caught this cloud formation north of Madison.

Second pic, not our sub forum really - Wind farm in southern MN.

 

20160714_103440_Pano.jpg

20160714_170234.jpg

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^ Nice!

 

Only us Midwesterners will get this. The beans are helping make the afternoon clouds with all their respiration.

 

7V2A0493.JPG

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2 hours ago, IWXwx said:


The long term discussion by Sam Lashley at IWX sounds like it was co-authored by Hoosier and Alek. Emphasis is on the heat dome and the chance it may get squashed/held to the west of most of us .

Northwest flow aloft to become more pronounced by mid week as plains
ridge builds and expands. The impressive and rare 600 DAM
heights make an appearance centered over the plains by Wednesday.
While heights will build eastward over our area...flow remains
northwest as it has in this repeated pattern all summer with
convective short waves impeding its northeast expansion. Result
could be more remnant MCS activity for us with additional pcpn
chances or cloud cover which would severely hamper temperatures.
Thus we prefer to remain on conservative side with temps as this
pattern has repeated a few times this summer and we have seen the
remnant clouds and lower temps. Granted this is an impressive ridge
and any further northward expansion would quickly bring dome
overhead and force any ring of fire convection north of our area. 

 

lol.  Yeah the strong mid-level flow will likely temper the heat in most of our sub as per usual, as storm clusters roam around the periphery of the heat dome.  Not expecting anything too hot here at this point.  Probably more of the same.  May get a day in the mid 90s at some point, but the heart of the heat will likely continue to hold in the Plains/southern MW.  Could be an excellent period of active thunderstorm episodes for parts of the sub at least.

 

58 minutes ago, Geos said:

Was a much more pleasant day humidity wise. Drove into SD today on the way to Washington. 

Became quitearrow-10x10.png breezy in MN today.

Caught this cloud formation north of Madison.

Second pic, not our sub forum really - Wind farm in southern MN.

 

20160714_103440_Pano.jpg

20160714_170234.jpg

Noice.  That bottom shot is $.

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^ouch, buff!

nice pics guys!
cool and damp here this morning, 51.  only 60's for a high again today and upper 30's-low 40's tonight.  at the mid point of met summer today...
wow @ how quick summer is going by, but it's been a terrific one weather wise!

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I'll be optimistic and say the beefy ridge does help dive nw flow convection a bit further NE in the sub. Putting mby aside for a second, the general pattern looks good for repeat MCS activity.

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Might be far enough west here that we get some of the intense heat next week. 100F isn't a lock but we have a pretty good shot at it, coupled with dews in the low to mid 70s. Currently 99 in the point for Thursday with a low of 80. 

Models have a nice MCS rolling in in Saturday as well. Should be a fun few days after a high of 67 here yesterday. 

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We could get some remnant mcs action Sunday morning, but nw Iowa may get the brunt of that one.  Sunday night/Monday morning may be our big event.  DVN suggests backbuilding may be an issue.  If we do get some heavy rain late in the weekend and then more rain Wednesday, as the euro suggests, the temperature may be held down a bit late in the week.  One day early this week we were expecting low 90s with a dewpoint in the low 70s, but we ended up with 88/76.  CR has only hit 90 degrees five times all summer, with only one day maxing at 92.  I think low 90s tends to be a popular temp on hot days during humid summers.

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47 minutes ago, IllinoisWedges said:

Has anyone looked into Sunday at all? (Severe) 

Yeah it's a nice conditional setup.  Hard to get too excited though as the evolution of Sat night/Sun morning's stuff will probably have some impact.  Euro has a lot of deep convection ongoing Sun morning over Iowa.  Definitely one to watch with the synoptic setup in place.

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Regarding the heat in the extended, one of the consistent aspects showing up in the modeling is that the greatest above average temperature anomalies may tend to be found with northward extent.  Not that it won't be hot farther south though, and what areas farther south may lack in max departures above average may be made up for by longer duration heat.

Although this is still fairly far out, I'd be pretty surprised if we don't have at least mid 90s here by the end of next week/weekend.  Can't rule out a day or two possibly making the upper 90s/near 100, but that is too far above climo to bet on at this distance.   

 

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Still 5-6 days out but currently favoring Friday over Thursday as the hottest day next week around here for a couple reasons.  One, should have a higher starting point on Friday.  Two, some indications of more of a westerly component in the low level flow compared to Thursday.  If you look back on some of the bigger heat days, the less southerly component, the better, at least here.

I don't trust the GFS handling of boundary layer mixing and feel it could be too moist in the low levels (and too cool with temps), but nonetheless, this is looking like a pretty oppressive heat episode and not a drier one.

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cool and breezy morning.  good chance of some thunder and rain today. I saw a pic MQT posted yesterday morning of a bit of frost on their roof.  liking the idea of some heat mid/late week.  garden really needs a nudge.

second time in a week a doe has left her 2 week old fawn in my backyard.  left it 11 hours last time.  woke up this morning and it's here again.
it's pretty normal for a doe to do this with her fawn, but with woods as far as you can walk, she elects me babysitter. :D

 

716161.JPG

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