Central Illinois Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 This was from the Wednesday squall line easily the best event of the Spring/Summer here so far 55mph wind gusts with itSent from my iPhone 6s using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 July 7th Shelf CloudSent from my iPhone 6s using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 17, 2016 Author Share Posted July 17, 2016 I think Friday will be the hottest day at ORD since July 2012. As far as how hot, not going to guess a number yet but normally for 100 degree potential, I look for 850 mb temps of at least 24C (given sufficient mixing). GFS/ECMWF both have 850 mb temps around 26C so that gives some idea of where things may go if they hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 Yeah, for that Wed. July 13 event I had 3 separate cells pass over at 5, 7, and 9 p.m. Good event and light show here with the 9 p.m. storm as that was part of the squall line that did so much straight line wind damage in St. Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 Point up to 95/94 for Thu/Fri. We hit 95 back in June here, and MLI hit 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 Our point is up to 94 here, TWC though is going with 98... I could see it actually fall between the two to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 17 minutes ago, Stebo said: Our point is up to 94 here, TWC though is going with 98... I could see it actually fall between the two to be honest. 100*F+ potential is there for DTW and DET Friday if we can keep convective debris to a minimum. We had similar (if not somewhat cooler) profiles on 7/4/12, but also full sunshine aside from towering CU until the severe weather outbreak late that afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 17, 2016 Author Share Posted July 17, 2016 Saturday is starting to look pretty hot as well on the latest runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 17, 2016 Author Share Posted July 17, 2016 Was wondering how the frequency of 100+ degree weather in Chicago compares to the frequency of days with high temperatures at or below zero. Turns out 100 degree days are more common. Officially, Chicago has had 65 days with a high of 100 or greater and 61 days with a high of zero or colder. Since the official observation site moved to ORD in 1980, there have been 22 days with a high of 100 or greater and 14 days with a high of zero or colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 4 hours ago, Powerball said: 100*F+ potential is there for DTW and DET Friday if we can keep convective debris to a minimum. We had similar (if not somewhat cooler) profiles on 7/4/12, but also full sunshine aside from towering CU until the severe weather outbreak late that afternoon. The big question is, will we pull another 90+, 90+, 89 trio again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 10 minutes ago, IthielZ said: The big question is, will we pull another 90+, 90+, 89 trio again? I hope not. Current model runs suggest we'll have at least 3 solid days of 90*F+ potential. But that could change (again) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 80 degrees at midnight is pretty impressive considering 87 was our high. Even more impressive 81/66 at DET, up a degree from last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 IWXs new AFD calling for 100-105 heat indexs on Friday. Someone might make a run at 110. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 What a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 The Midwest is going to be very hot and humid this week. Stay hydrated you guys! Could Sioux Falls, SD reach 100F on Thursday? Very hot temperatures in Eau Claire, WI with highs in the mid 90's on Wednesday and Thursday. Lows are in the mid 70"s very warm! And don't forget it will be humid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 110 heat indices advertised in special weather statement for my area. This summer has reminded me a lot of 2011 so far. Muggy, hot, ring of fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 00z Euro shows 100/73 temp/dew late Friday. Sounds like fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: 00z Euro shows 100/73 temp/dew late Friday. Sounds like fun. I wonder if T'storms will explode in those condition. Sounds excitiing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Yeah the Euro is a bit warmer than the GFS for most, it is nearly 100 here for both Friday/Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 13 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah the Euro is a bit warmer than the GFS for most, it is nearly 100 here for both Friday/Saturday. Why do MCSs die in Southeast Michigan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Just now, Thunder98 said: Why do MCSs die in Southeast Michigan? Countless reasons, usually they start far west of here and arrive overnight or in the morning where the dynamic/thermodynamic support is at its weakest. Sometimes we have issues with downsloping weakening MCS as they move into the area as well. Lastly having a close proximity to the lakes tends to knock down instability locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 looks like the favored corridor running southeast from S. MN into NC Illinois should continue to do well this week with a nice MCS tues/weds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Nice vis sat presentation the current (weak) cold front moving through the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2016 Author Share Posted July 18, 2016 The raw NAM temp/dewpoint output looks pretty impressive on Thursday. I'm sure Friday will be even moreso for many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2016 Author Share Posted July 18, 2016 7/13/95 is showing up prominently on the CIPS analogs, especially when sorting by 850 mb temps and 500 mb heights. As you would expect, some other pretty well known hot days on there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2016 Author Share Posted July 18, 2016 LOT going with an Excessive Heat Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 5 hours ago, Thunder98 said: Why do MCSs die in Southeast Michigan? 5 hours ago, Stebo said: Countless reasons, usually they start far west of here and arrive overnight or in the morning where the dynamic/thermodynamic support is at its weakest. Sometimes we have issues with downsloping weakening MCS as they move into the area as well. Lastly having a close proximity to the lakes tends to knock down instability locally. A couple things. 1. There's a difference between "Southeast Michigan" and "Detroit." "Southeast Michigan," in its broadest definition, includes areas along the Ohio Border, Flint, the Thumb Region and the Tri-Cities. With that said, the aforementioned areas (especially the Thumb region, Flint and the Tri-Cities) haven't had too bad of a thunderstorm / severe weather season, probably thanks in large part to the extra bout of lift they get from being at a higher elevation. It's Detroit proper and the immediate suburbs that have been getting ****ed in the ass. The little action that has occurred in Metro Detroit has mostly favored the far southern and far northern suburbs. 2. As far as the poor timing of individual shortwaves, that can be blamed entirely on a ridiculously long streak of bad luck. I fondly remember back in the late 90s and early 2000s when it was far more common for shortwaves to come through during peak severe weather hours and deliver modestly well. 3. Besides the microclimate issues Stebo detailed, the simple fact is the overall pattern (I.E. lack of death ridges and persistent NW flow) for thunderstorms / severe weather has also sucked. The microclimate issues just exasperates the overall crappy pattern we've had. Our most prolific thunderstorm / severe weather episodes in Detroit proper occur when we're under the influence of a death ridge with extreme heat for an extended time, which unfortunately has been sorely lacking for the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 DVN still low-balling things a bit keeping things rather conservative with mainly mid 90s Thu/Fri. Probably a good call at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2016 Author Share Posted July 18, 2016 Wonder if anybody is going to pull off the rare 100/80 temp/dewpoint combo in the next few days. Might be a little tough as 100 degree temps may mean a little too much mixing with drier air aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 41 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Wonder if anybody is going to pull off the rare 100/80 temp/dewpoint combo in the next few days. Might be a little tough as 100 degree temps may mean a little too much mixing with drier air aloft. Can't wait until we're within RAP's range. Will probably show a huge swath of 110+ all over the MW lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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