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July 2016 General Discussion


Hoosier

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Month looks to start off on the cooler side, but how long is the question.  New 12z GFS has some heat coming in on the 4th, but that is a significant change from recent runs.

Matches the nino to nina change, and matches how things have been thus far. Not surprising that it changed.

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Matches the nino to nina change, and matches how things have been thus far. Not surprising that it changed.

 

 

Some people had July/August as warmer than June (relative to average).  What do you think about that?  The June temperature departures aren't that outrageous so it seems like something that could happen. 

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Some people had July/August as warmer than June (relative to average). What do you think about that? The June temperature departures aren't that outrageous so it seems like something that could happen.

I am one of those people, 73/98/07/10 all matched that pattern.
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I am one of those people, 73/98/07/10 all matched that pattern.

Wow hopefully not 2007. That August was awfully hot with 3 straight weeks of 100+ temps over a very large part of the country. But I'm afraid you are right though. The 18z GFS is even hotter, at least down in the southeast showing temps of 100+ from 7-5-2016 to the end of it's run. If this run is right, this brings 2007 to the table, along with 1986 at least over NC, GA, and SC.

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Wow hopefully not 2007. That August was awfully hot with 3 straight weeks of 100+ temps over a very large part of the country. But I'm afraid you are right though. The 18z GFS is even hotter, at least down in the southeast showing temps of 100+ from 7-5-2016 to the end of it's run. If this run is right, this brings 2007 to the table, along with 1986 at least over NC, GA, and SC.

Yeah, just wait until mid to late July when that ridge gets entrenched in the east and becomes an extension of the Bermuda ridge, it will be incredibly hot in the east then.

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That time after the 4th may get pretty hot if the latest models/ensembles are to be believed.  Given the timeframe involved there's always potential for backing down but as currently depicted, it could be a fairly impressive blast of heat and falling right in a climo favored time.

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Would be enough to quench the drought a little, and hell there's a couple shots a severe so no reason to complain.

Need a lot more than an inch and a half of rain over a two week period in mid summer to help the dryness for more than a day or two
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That time after the 4th may get pretty hot if the latest models/ensembles are to be believed.  Given the timeframe involved there's always potential for backing down but as currently depicted, it could be a fairly impressive blast of heat and falling right in a climo favored time.

Euro has mid 80s for most of the subforum which is a step up from last night. Of course it has this by the end of the run:

 

7pvyMaB.png

Ride the Euro.

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For what it's worth, the GFS predicts 111 in Kansas on July 8 (00z July 9), but this type of heat is nowhere near Chicago.

That is because the GFS falsely keeps trying to force a trough in the east, it is going to be wrong. The pattern the Euro is showing matches the El Nino to La Nina summers where the ridge eventually slides east before setting up shop mid to late July in the east. This is an easy forecast and the best model is showing this to happen, GFS will be like its usual 4th place self and catch up over time.

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It makes sense too as there is a trough in the west that causes a Sonoran heat release that pushed warmth into the plains and eventually the lakes, it is also very unstable at this time too. If the westerlies were to dip into the region we'd be looking at a pretty impressive severe weather signal.

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It makes sense too as there is a trough in the west that causes a Sonoran heat release that pushed warmth into the plains and eventually the lakes, it is also very unstable at this time too. If the westerlies were to dip into the region we'd be looking at a pretty impressive severe weather signal.

 

I guess we should enjoy this stretch of cool weather while it lasts.

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I hope it happens just for you.

If you guys are still dry by then, needless to say the heat potential would be maximized provided there's plenty of sun.

Still a lot of time for things to get tempered, but that is not some absurdly unprecedented heat on that run.

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If you guys are still dry by then, needless to say the heat potential would be maximized provided there's plenty of sun.

Still a lot of time for things to get tempered, but that is not some absurdly unprecedented heat on that run.

We will be dry still, I see no appreciable rain coming. The thing is by this point in the run the dew points have climbed back to near 70, which isn't too surprising considering it is around 100 by that point.

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