A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Drought in the summer = heat. Look at the last time we were this dry in June, 2012. One of the hottest summers on record. bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 GFS continues to hammer the central Illinois corridor with 2-5" of rain over the holiday weekend, man talk about a drag to the 3 day weekend. Ship this mess up to Michigan lol. Already seeing a special weather statement for the weekend, concerning the flood potential. If this verifies I can't remember the last time a 4th holiday ended up a complete washout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 wouldn't be surprised if nearly all of it remains south of urbana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2016 Author Share Posted June 30, 2016 bust If Stebo won't take the bait, I will. Before the cooldown, there's this. Granted the op Euro has backed off recently so the magnitude of the heat remains in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2016 Author Share Posted June 30, 2016 btw, that 204 hr map has an 850 mb temp of 28C over ORD. Forget whether or not it verifies, I think I've only seen it progged a handful of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 btw, that 204 hr map has an 850 mb temp of 28C over ORD. Forget whether or not it verifies, I think I've only seen it progged a handful of times. Verbatim, I wonder if there might be some compressional warming ahead of the front. Much cooler in the Dakotas and upper midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 GFS continues to hammer the central Illinois corridor with 2-5" of rain over the holiday weekend, man talk about a drag to the 3 day weekend. Ship this mess up to Michigan lol. Already seeing a special weather statement for the weekend, concerning the flood potential. If this verifies I can't remember the last time a 4th holiday ended up a complete washout I'd gladly sacrifice what I consider the best holiday weekend of summer if we could somehow make that happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2016 Author Share Posted June 30, 2016 12z ECMWF is going back toward a more impressive heat signal in the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 12z ECMWF is going back toward a more impressive heat signal in the extended. below average to average, quick shot of heat and then right back into the 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 below average to average, quick shot of heat and then right back into the 70s Yeah if you live a block from the lake maybe, for the rest of us, naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2016 Author Share Posted June 30, 2016 Yeah if you live a block from the lake maybe, for the rest of us, naso much. Alek's getting to you Stebo. Does look like a big cooldown after the 7th/8th. How long it lasts is questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Alek's getting to you Stebo. Does look like a big cooldown after the 7th/8th. How long it lasts is questionable. Honestly it doesn't look like a big cooldown, the pattern is fast and transient, hell even behind the front it is in the 80s still here. It is a west to east pattern, compared to this weekend where it is coming more out of the northwest, I would consider this a big cooldown but again still transient as we will be in the 80s by Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2016 Author Share Posted June 30, 2016 Honestly it doesn't look like a big cooldown, the pattern is fast and transient, hell even behind the front it is in the 80s still here. It is a west to east pattern, compared to this weekend where it is coming more out of the northwest, I would consider this a big cooldown but again still transient as we will be in the 80s by Sunday. I suppose it's relative. If you have areas well into the 90s or better toward the end of next week, it takes a big cooldown to just get back to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 I suppose it's relative. If you have areas well into the 90s or better toward the end of next week, it takes a big cooldown to just get back to average. In that perspective sure, though when I think of big cooldown this time of year, I am thinking 75 or less. The thing is though, with how dry it has been here I am not even sold on temps that low this weekend, dry ground/dry atmosphere should allow for quick daytime warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2016 Author Share Posted June 30, 2016 The thing about that potential late week heat is that it looks very muggy as well. The GFS has been advertising a large area of dews near or above 80, which could be overdone in areal extent but even the Euro has a large area of dews well into the 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 The thing about that potential late week heat is that it looks very muggy as well. The GFS has been advertising a large area of dews near or above 80, which could be overdone in areal extent but even the Euro has a large area of dews well into the 70s. Yeah both are really cranking up the humidity, Euro had dews in the 80s as well originally. Still showing upper 70s for a large part of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2016 Author Share Posted June 30, 2016 Yeah both are really cranking up the humidity, Euro had dews in the 80s as well originally. Still showing upper 70s for a large part of the region. That area that gets dumped on coming up...imagine this airmass coming in over healthy crops and wet soil/standing water. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 That area that gets dumped on coming up...imagine this airmass coming in over healthy crops and wet soil/standing water. Sheesh. That is the exact reason why I don't think 80 dew points aren't unrealistic. You are going to put a ton of ambient moisture into the air as the heat ridge flexes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2016 Author Share Posted June 30, 2016 That is the exact reason why I don't think 80 dew points aren't unrealistic. You are going to put a ton of ambient moisture into the air as the heat ridge flexes. I buy that, in some areas. Not this depiction though with the GFS giving out 80+ dews like Oprah gives out free stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 That level of mugginess is near asinine, would love the see the heat indexs from that. The GFS also has two decent shots at severe for the MI crowd the 7th and 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 I buy that, in some areas. Not this depiction though with the GFS giving out 80+ dews like Oprah gives out free stuff. GFSMW_sfc_dewp_174.png Lol ya that is probably overdone, I'd knock a few degrees off that and throw them on the temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 At face value, looks like a solid ROF setup (for once) after the 4th of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Drought in the summer = heat. Look at the last time we were this dry in June, 2012. One of the hottest summers on record. To be fair, it's a completely different situation. Our "drought, which is extremely localized, has more so been a case of extremely bad luck instead of a large scale pattern that reinforces dryness. Back in 2012, virtually all of the SW and Plains states were experiencing exceptional drought conditions. Since then for the past few years (including this year), they've been experiencing pretty significant precipitation surpluses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Bone dry for 7 days here. Lows will come in low with no ground moisture. Gonna have 30 to 40 degree temp ranges between day and night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 For July! Stepped out to puddles on my driveway for the first time in I can't remember when. Awesome way to start the holiday weekend. Even had a nice light show around 3am according to my wife who was up. I just remember hearing the wonderful sound of heavy rain and returned to zzzz land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 At face value, looks like a solid ROF setup (for once) after the 4th of July. Wouldn't that be a great way to follow-up today's little hit. Here's to hoping you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 My airport reported heavy rain a few times last night, looks like around a quarter inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 when you're good, you're good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 1, 2016 Author Share Posted July 1, 2016 Some indications of the heat possibly coming back after it cools down, so the general theme looks like a fairly transient pattern with nothing locking in too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Yeah if you live a block from the lake maybe, for the rest of us, naso much. As shot of the IMBY syndrome.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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