July 2016 General Discussion

[Stebo]

Looks like ridging really tries to build in the extended. Going to have to watch the trends and see if it gets blunted over time/convection plays spoiler. If not, it could get pretty hot.

Either hot or storms, definitely doesn't look cool at all.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Julys looking pretty active the rest of the month.

[Hoosier]

Either hot or storms, definitely doesn't look cool at all.

 

 

Agree...shouldn't be a cool pattern overall.  Of course you can always have a day or two of such mixed in.

[stormtrackertf]

Saw one of the more interesting sunsets tonight as I was leaving the mall and a shower was rolling in.

[Hoosier]

nice

[BuffaloWeather]

Saw one of the more interesting sunsets tonight as I was leaving the mall and a shower was rolling in.

2016-07-09 21.09.55.jpg

 

Awesome shot!

[Hoosier]

One of the more impressive 500 mb maps I can recall.

Only 9 days away

[Hoosier]

Two drowned at a beach in Gary with a third person nearly drowning. Days like today can be pretty dangerous for swimming.

[IWXwx]

Nathan at IWX making a note in his discussion this morning of the Hoosier Death Ridge.

 

"Looking ahead, some increasing signal in medium range models appears to be developing
for increasing heat outside of this forecast period in the Day 8-Day 10 timeframe."

[weatherbo]

low of 46 this morning. ready for some heat and humidity this week to push my garden along.  approx. 6-8 weeks before frost.

[Chambana]

Textbook weather this weekend, golfers were out at 6AM lol. Can always tell when we are getting deeper into summer, you can smell the corn in the air, today was the first day I smelled it, upon drinking coffee on my porch.

[weatherbo]

Textbook weather this weekend, golfers were out at 6AM lol. Can always tell when we are getting deeper into summer, you can smell the corn in the air, today was the first day I smelled it, upon drinking coffee on my porch.

brings back memories of my Indiana days.

[Chitown Storm]

Nice soaker this morning with the complex that rolled in from the Dakotas around 4am. Had some nice house rattling boomers and some vivid lightning. Humidity in full force today. Speaking of gardens, my tomato plants got their first fruit to pop yesterday. Cucumbers and bell peppers going gangbusters too.

[weatherbo]

Nice soaker this morning with the complex that rolled in from the Dakotas around 4am. Had some nice house rattling boomers and some vivid lightning. Humidity in full force today. Speaking of gardens, my tomato plants got their first fruit to pop yesterday. Cucumbers and bell p

started my garden early inside the house.  my tom's are loaded down and my peppers have some decent sized ones too... beans are cuc's blooming as well. lettuce heads getting round.

my house is cedar and the back deck faces south, so the sun radiating off the wood of the house gives the garden extra warmth even when the actual temp is cool.  great place to garden I'm finding.

rain and heat this week looking good!

 

 

[Hoosier]

Tuesday has a shot to be one of the hotter days so far this year around here, especially if the NAM is right, but it will partially depend on convective timing.  NAM progging deep mixing with 850's around 20C. 

[Hoosier]

Nathan at IWX making a note in his discussion this morning of the Hoosier Death Ridge.

 

"Looking ahead, some increasing signal in medium range models appears to be developing

for increasing heat outside of this forecast period in the Day 8-Day 10 timeframe."

 

 

LOT took notice too

 

MODEL GUIDANCE IS EVEN SUGGESTING THE  POSSIBILITY OF SOME EXTREME HEAT BY THE START OF THE WEEK OF JULY  16TH. CURRENTLY, ALTHOUGH THIS IS WAY OUT THERE, AND EVEN BEYOND  THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS CERTAINLY A GOOD SIGNAL THAT  A POTENT SUMMER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COULD DEVELOP OVER THE MID-  MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD POSSIBLY LEADING TO  TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S. A LOT CAN HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND  THEN, WHICH COULD DRASTICALLY IMPACT WHERE THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS  SET UP, SO THIS WILL HAVE TO MONITORED THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK.  

[hawkeye_wx]

There was not supposed to be an MCS rolling down through Iowa today, but there it is.  It's gradually weakening, but I've already had a nice downpour with a little thunder.

[A-L-E-K]

repeated convection over the plains is going to temper the heat, not concerned

[Hoosier]

This ridge building episode looks more impressive than the last one did at this distance (which ultimately didn't quite pan out).  Euro/GFS are trying to put the core of the high heights in the sub...you're not getting convection if that happens.  I noticed the GGEM is more subdued with more convective threats...it was last time too and guess what, it was on the right track.  Certainly can't lock anything in yet.  Would like to get it within 4-5 days.

[hawkeye_wx]

Instead of 80s and sunny today, it's upper 60s and rain... quite unexpected.  The mcs just exited my area and dropped a total of 0.68".  There is yet another line of showers/storms sinking down from northern Iowa, although I'm not sure if that'll affect me.

[UMB WX]

looking forward to this dry next week or two I was told about

 

Another perfect weekend with highs in the 70's and lots of sun. 

[IWXwx]

Nathan at IWX making a note in his discussion this morning of the Hoosier/Stebo Death Ridge.

 

"Looking ahead, some increasing signal in medium range models appears to be developing

for increasing heat outside of this forecast period in the Day 8-Day 10 timeframe."

 

I had to rename the upcoming heat wave. I almost forgot that Stebo has been calling for warmth for the last half of the month/backloaded summer. The GFS continues the large super ridge beginning early next week and continuing through 384.

 

I think it's gonna happen even though Alek gives reasons for it to get squashed.

 

[RCNYILWX]

If it rains a decent amount this week, can't wait for 95-100/75-80 afternoons. The corn is going to be sweating like crazy.

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[Stebo]

I had to rename the upcoming heat wave. I almost forgot that Stebo has been calling for warmth for the last half of the month/backloaded summer. The GFS continues the large super ridge beginning early next week and continuing through 384.

 

I think it's gonna happen even though Alek gives reasons for it to get squashed.

 

gfs_z500_mslp_us_35.png

After seeing last week's ridge get knocked down, I am a bit more subdued with this one. That being said if the ridge does show like the Euro/GFS shows we would be looking at some of the hottest weather in the last couple years.

[Hoosier]

Euro/GFS ensembles support the general idea of a big ridge in the central US.  They are a bit less impressive than the op runs but I would expect that, given the unusual magnitude of the ridging that the op runs are suggesting.  

[IWXwx]

After seeing last week's ridge get knocked down, I am a bit more subdued with this one. That being said if the ridge does show like the Euro/GFS shows we would be looking at some of the hottest weather in the last couple years.

 

The 18z GFS op shows the ridge holding strong for a few days, then retrograding late next week. It would still give us 4 days of torch, followed by a ROF setup.

[michsnowfreak]

After seeing last week's ridge get knocked down, I am a bit more subdued with this one. That being said if the ridge does show like the Euro/GFS shows we would be looking at some of the hottest weather in the last couple years.

Since the scorching summer of 2012, number of 90F+ days has continuously been below normal and the hot days that we do get are pretty weak.

[Stebo]

Since the scorching summer of 2012, number of 90F+ days has continuously been below normal and the hot days that we do get are pretty weak.

Pattern is changing now though which would make sense for something different compared to the last 3 summers.

[Spartman]

Even that the middle of July is just a few days away, I have a feeling this July may be predestined to be a sub-90 month for those who had previously hit 90 near the end of last month.

[IWXwx]