A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Here's a loop of the HRRR. You can see how the warm front struggles to get through the lakeside area around Chicago. hrrr.gif yep, the city proper is in the clear the prime target for the super cell to watch has been p obvious for a while now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 not saying it's true this time but the HRRR has a strong bias for overdoing lake breeze penetration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 dat lake mich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 yep, the city proper is in the clear the prime target for the super cell to watch has been p obvious for a while now Hard to deny the model consistency with cells in the general vicinity. Still too close for comfort, especially with an extremely favorable inflow environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 yep, the city proper is in the clear the prime target for the super cell to watch has been p obvious for a while now Not even close, man. You have S/SW flow right now.. Gonna make that call right now based on model output? Recipe to get bit right in the ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 not saying it's true this time but the HRRR has a strong bias for overdoing lake breeze penetration. Certainly noticed that on some days not too long ago, but today is a different setup and it does have support from other models. The city boundaries are pretty big from north to south so I wouldn't be surprised if we get a scenario where the southern part of the city (not metro) has a substantially higher threat than the northern part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I don't think you can or should make the call that the city is clear yet, although the likeliness of it being safe is higher than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zestylabs Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Sitting in Freeport IL right now waiting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Unexpected clearing is happening up here in Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 LOTs update is pretty good http://www.weather.gov/media/lot/events/2016/Jun22/Jun22_1PM_Slides.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Lake shore dr, safe. Michigan Ave.. who knows. .. I'll walk myself out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 The WRF-NSSL. Yikes. Seems like there's a high chance of a strong supercell or two somewhere in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 fwiw, the 17z HRRR is still pretty cellular at 02z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Lake shore dr, safe. Michigan Ave.. who knows. works for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 The kinematic environment is already very favorable. A sizable area of 65+ knots bulk shear and SRH in the 0-1km layer of 200+ m2s-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 fwiw, the 17z HRRR is still pretty cellular at 02z. Given the magnitude and orientation of the shear vectors, I fully expect a predominantly supercellular mode through at least 01-02z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 fwiw, the 17z HRRR is still pretty cellular at 02z. Yup. 4k nam still has this forming a derecho and diving SE, I believe WRF was also showing this as well. Surprised they're not hitting on the flash flood potential as well, these things are gonna drop tremendous rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Sig tor cases in the LOT cwa from 2003-2011. The progged ingredients later on compare favorably to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 that's not good- 17z HRRR at 01z (sorry for small pic, idk how to zoom lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 High clouds thinning out here in Southern Lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 High clouds thinning out here in Southern Lower. Full out sun now. Mostly clear skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Sorry that all I have to offer is local OBS but I would definitely consider the day to be warm and muggy at this moment. Sitting out in Palos and the sun is hot Sent from my XT1526 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 LOT doing a Twitter Q&A between now and 2:15. Sorry for whoever is manning the Twitter feed right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 LOT doing a Twitter Q&A between now and 2:15. Sorry for whoever is manning the Twitter feed right now. lol. There are definitely some drawbacks to Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Here's a loop of the HRRR. You can see how the warm front struggles to get through the lakeside area around Chicago. hrrr.gif Yeah winds are starting to blow out of the E here. Biggest threat towards the city more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 One thing that June 5-6 of 2010 teaches us is that this is not a guarantee it will turn into a QLCS. If some remember that was supposed to be an Illinois/Iowa tornado event but what wound up happening is the cells never congealed and we had two strong tornadoes within the Toledo metro area at midnight. I'm not saying this will definitely happen but the environments are starkly similar with robust CAPE expected and strong deep shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindBarb Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 lol. There are definitely some drawbacks to Twitter. They've opened up Q&A on Facebook, too. Brave folk, our LOT team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I asked LOT about the lake breeze boundary on Twitter. Hopefully I can get a reply with their thoughts for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Latest surface OBS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Sig tor cases in the LOT cwa from 2003-2011. The progged ingredients later on compare favorably to say the least. enviro_sig.png Wow. I think we certainly see a significant tornado today, million dollar question as always, does it track through a populated area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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