Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,509
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    joxey
    Newest Member
    joxey
    Joined

2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

Recommended Posts

bluewave

bluewave

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Euro pulls a version of the Joaquin forecast this run where the GFS was showing a landfall and the Euro OTS.

The Euro is slower than the GFS so Matthew misses the first trough that the GFS picks up. Too far south for the 

second trough and gets kicked OTS.

 

Maybe the gulfstream data getting added to the 0z runs tonight will make some changes to the forecast.

The one thing we can say about the Euro today is that the forward motion did pick up north of Cuba from the molasses run yesterday.

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, Snow88 said:

FB_IMG_1475116131899.jpg

This clustering through the central Bahamas is a pretty damn important first step. Yesterday the clustering was further east and even Haiti was under the gun. A recurve that early probably wouldn't cut it for anyone in the CONUS. And climo shows it's virtually unprecedented to see a direct impact around 40N with a recurve northward that begins east of the central Bahamas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

The likelihood of an east coast impact outside of the Carolina Outer Banks has certainly decreased, would still keep on eye on it and the models for the next few days before completely writing this off.

We have a long way to go. Mathew in all likelihood has to deal with crossing Jamaica and Cuba. We really don't know at this stage how that land interaction is going to change things. Theoretically Mathew could not survive the trip if it crossed both Eastern Jamaica and Eastern Cuba where the elevation is high. You could have a center relocation ect. Some guidance even suggests that the center could get very close to the East coast of Florida. It's just too early.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

hurricane gilbert crossed the island of jamaica from the east end to the west end and looked like it even strengthened as it did it..

Completely different track. The Eastern end of Jamaica is more mountainous than the rest of the island. In this case, Mathew could have to cross the higher terrain of both Jamaica and Cuba. 

track.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

This is a bad post, maybe the worst of posts.  There is still a substantial risk of a Florida LF.  Jesus, you'd think people never tracked tropical systems before.

The risk of a FL landfall is pretty low. I don't see how that happens if we have the model consensus now of a sharp north turn to the east end of Cuba. From there, the Atlantic ridge is looking weaker than a couple of days ago, and the mid-latitude pattern is more conducive towards a turn out to sea from the Bahamas. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...