2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It's all fantasy at this juncture-look at the 3 day forecast bust with Hermine let alone a 7-10 day one here.   Who knows if the storm even develops at this point?

I think this has a shot at stronger development mainly due to the Caribbean finally becoming less hostile in recent days than it has been most of the season.

This is the first above normal Caribbean instability since Hurricane Earl in early August in the Western Caribbean.

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It would be a huge bust if it doesn't even develop. Every model shows a strong hurricane.

 

A day 10 bust ? 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

A day 10 bust ? 

Yes

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

That would be like a Bob. The west side would have all the rain and essentially a nasty nor'easter, the really destructive stuff would be for eastern New England. 

That's what we need on the island. A good 6"+ soaker. Winds would be offshore so minimal coastal impacts. Maybe 40-60mph gusts so minimal damage on that side as well

[MJO812]

12z EPS

[forkyfork]

the EPS supports a gulf system

[Jason WX]

Big ridge building at hr 180 with exit door closing on GFS

[Jason WX]

yikes...

[NJwx85]

18z GFS with a NYC or LI landfall ~955mb

[NJwx85]

5-6" of rain with hurricane force winds at the coast lol.

[Jason WX]

Wow. We really need to watch this.

[Jason WX]

Waiting for ensembles 

[CIK62]

Mathew's wind field spares us the worse on this 18Z run.    8" of rain though.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016092718&fh=252&xpos=0&ypos=450

Storm deconstructs very rapidly on landfall.   Wonder if all that Sandy retro-fitting gets tested.

[Dan76]

 Wonder if all that Sandy retro-fitting gets tested   That would all be a memory if that was to happen.

[Hoth]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_18z/ensloopmref.html#picture

 

Ensembles have plenty of big hits along EC.

[SnoSki14]

Future Matthew will be heading north right where Sandy did almost four years ago and could be just as strong by then if not stronger. 

However the chance of a hit like the 18z gfs shows is extremely slim, it's far more likely to impact Florida or go OTS than do that. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Future Matthew will be heading north right where Sandy did almost four years ago and could be just as strong by then if not stronger. 

However the chance of a hit like the 18z gfs shows is extremely slim, it's far more likely to impact Florida or go OTS than do that. 

Long nights ahead

[MJO812]

[Brian5671]

that's about as abrupt right turn of a hurricane that you don't often see at that Latitude

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that's about as abrupt right turn of a hurricane that you don't often see at that Latitude

I would have to imagine that would have at least some negative effect to the structure of the storm 

[Rittenhouse]

27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that's about as abrupt right turn of a hurricane that you don't often see at that Latitude

It also gets captured like Sandy, abruptly hooking WNW, making landfall near NYC, and ending up near Ithaca at 961mb. Don't see that too often either.

[NJwx85]

41 minutes ago, Rittenhouse said:

It also gets captured like Sandy, abruptly hooking WNW, making landfall near NYC, and ending up near Ithaca at 961mb. Don't see that too often either.

It's also a massive cyclone with a large wind field, also Sandy esque.

[jm1220]

That West Atlantic ridge definitely has to be watched. If Matthew strengthens over the Caribbean and is blocked from escaping by that ridge, a trough could dig down and grab/phase with it like Sandy did. That's obviously quite unlikely, but if that ridge strengthens and especially if it can build into a blocking ridge over Nova Scotia like Sandy's setup had, Matthew would have no choice but to turn back NW. 

More likely is the ridge being weaker and it being able to escape, or it going further west in the Caribbean and becoming a Gulf storm and hitting FL. 

[qg_omega]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Future Matthew will be heading north right where Sandy did almost four years ago and could be just as strong by then if not stronger. 

However the chance of a hit like the 18z gfs shows is extremely slim, it's far more likely to impact Florida or go OTS than do that. 

Sandy was 940mb, nothing shows that with this

[NJwx85]

16 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Sandy was 940mb, nothing shows that with this

The 18z GFS was honestly not far off.

[MJO812]

Heavy rain and wind up here on the GFS. Storm crashes into Cape hatteras. CMC hits us hard with rain and wind. Low comes up inside the benchmark.

[MJO812]

[SnoSki14]

Gfs is persistent with an east coast strike though the Euro's track at least into the Bahamas isn't terribly dissimilar but the timing is much slower. 

Thinking this is Euro's slow bias coming into play while the gfs might be too fast. Could take another 2 days before we even have a named system.

[bluewave]

Ensembles converging on a track near the Bahamas. But then there are all different solutions on where and how deep the trough coming across to the north is.

 

 

[bluewave]

Record warm SST's along the projected path of Matthew over the Western Caribbean and Atlantic.