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2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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bluewave

bluewave

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The strength of the ridge to the north will determine how far west this gets in the Caribbean before turning north.

Euro and EPS are west of the GFS based guidance showing a stronger ridge and more of a FL or GOM track

before turning north. GFS is on the eastern side of the envelope with a track up the East Coast. A compromise would put

Matthew very close to Florida before curving north ahead of the next trough. The big question is just west of FL...right over FL...or staying east?

eps_AL97_2016092700.png

 

 

 

 

 

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jm1220

jm1220

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38 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yes please. Classic cat one making landfall in Suffolk. About as classic a hurricane solution as we get around here 

That would be like a Bob. The west side would have all the rain and essentially a nasty nor'easter, the really destructive stuff would be for eastern New England. 

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forkyfork

forkyfork

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The strength of the ridge to the north will determine how far west this gets in the Caribbean before turning north.

Euro and EPS are west of the GFS based guidance showing a stronger ridge and more of a FL or GOM track

before turning north. GFS is on the eastern side of the envelope with a track up the East Coast. A compromise would put

Matthew very close to Florida before curving north ahead of the next trough. The big question is just west of FL...right over FL...or staying east?

eps_AL97_2016092700.png

 

 

 

 

 

the gfs just underestimated the strength of the ridge with this week's rain event. euro all the way

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Brian5671

Brian5671

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Not so sure about that. At 500, it looks like it would capture the storm and swoop it right up the coast. Euro is still wayyyyyyyyyyy slower than the GFS and CMC.

would need to be negatively tilted and pretty sharp.   Most Oct storms get kicked out to sea (yeah yeah I know, SANDY)

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Brian5671

Brian5671

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19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I can't take any 10 day forecast too seriously though do think it recurves east of the US after impacting Haiti, maybe Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas. 

Models just don't know exactly when it'll turn north.

It's all fantasy at this juncture-look at the 3 day forecast bust with Hermine let alone a 7-10 day one here.   Who knows if the storm even develops at this point?

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MJO812

MJO812

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

It's all fantasy at this juncture-look at the 3 day forecast bust with Hermine let alone a 7-10 day one here.   Who knows if the storm even develops at this point?

It would be a huge bust if it doesn't even develop. Every model shows a strong hurricane.

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