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Active Severe Weather Pattern Beginning Next Week


Jim Martin

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Actually SRH was quite impressive on the DDC VAD for a while. But indeed it can.. Sunday saw something similar.

Yeah looks like upper 200s on SRH that's certainly adequate given the high instability and really solid moisture.  

The RAP showing some 300s

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Am I the only one that thinks Thursday could be huge with some tweaks?

certainly... Given the breadth of warm sector and LLJ--it's slightly backed... As well as the favorable SFC low location and orientation. VBV--possibly-- and timing look like potential issues...
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certainly... Given the breadth of warm sector and LLJ--it's slightly backed... As well as the favorable SFC low location and orientation. VBV--possibly-- and timing look like potential issues...

There's definitely some timing issues with placement of forcing, surface features and upper air profiles.  Interesting the 4K NAM breaks out a string of supercell storms in far eastern OK and pushes them rapidly in Ark leaving the rest of the warm sector (most of OK and KS) basically untouched.  Not sure I'm buying that solution...in fact I'm not...

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certainly... Given the breadth of warm sector and LLJ--it's slightly backed... As well as the favorable SFC low location and orientation. VBV--possibly-- and timing look like potential issues...

For what it is worth, the Euro had very limited VBV, it also had the most explosive development along the dryline in KS.

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What an insane day! That DDC cell was a raging tornado machine. Definitely gonna be studied for a long time... For instance, at its height that storm appeared to be moving due north - which I believe makes it technically a deviant left mover against the general storm motion. Granted, a lot of complex interactions were occurring at that time, but still... Not only that, but at first glance the cell seems to have moved left along the boundary it was latched on to, rather than the absolutely expected right. Going to have to look at that loop again, closely...

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What an insane day! That DDC cell was a raging tornado machine. Definitely gonna be studied for a long time... For instance, at its height that storm appeared to be moving due north - which I believe makes it technically a deviant left mover against the general storm motion. Granted, a lot of complex interactions were occurring at that time, but still... Not only that, but at first glance the cell seems to have moved left along the boundary it was latched on to, rather than the absolutely expected right. Going to have to look at that loop again, closely...

Thank you! I was wondering why this storm was apparently moving left of the mean wind, if anyone has any idea why this happened I am more than interested to find out. 

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I can't believe how well my first two days chasing have gone, this was some spectacle...

 

https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/735288461045817344

 

https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/735288852097564672

Congrats andy and amazing photos! Definitely woulda been one heck of a storm to be on, it produced so many different tornadoes.

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Closest I've ever been. Kinda wish I was a video guy on a day like this but Quincy has it covered.

https://twitter.com/islivingston/status/735253165675778048

 

Man...Amazing! I'm jelly, congrats on the awesome chasing day! And thanks everyone for the updates throughout the day. Had to work late and lived vicariously through this thread.

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Absolutely unreal day. Was on the DDC cell since it was towers going up. We were watching from a hill in far northern OK then the updraft started getting that look and it was go time. Saw definitely more than 6 tornadoes with the DDC cell and possibly up to 10. At one point had 3 tornadoes ongoing at once and then 2 down at another point.

Here's a cell phone shot of the 3 tornadoes at once, including the well documented cone.

2f18230f990c4b8932ae171811904e38.jpg

Almost got stuck on the dirt road we were on not too long after this but thankfully didn't and saw a few more tornadoes once we got off that road. Congrats to everyone out today and good luck the rest of the week! On the long drive back to NWS Chicago now.

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Nam looks pretty volatile for OK thurs

Uh.. I'd say so.. Very favorably timed WSWLY mid-level jet max, crashing across the dryline in OK by ~00z, atop a moist and unstable environment with a slightly backed 35-50kt LLJ at 850mb, and even more backed 30-45kt flow at 925mb, with nearly southeast 20-25kt winds at the surface. Goodness. Only problem from what I can see is strong CIN, and the upper-level flow is backed to SSW.

 

GFS is not bad looking either... We'll see what SPC does at 06Z with D2. Would not be surprised to see a MDT given the likelihood of widespread severe storms-- regardless of how big the tornado threat is or is not, the very large hail/damaging wind threat will certainly be big enough in my mind. 

 

Because of Sunday and today, this is turning out to be quite an impressive period for the Plains. A big improvement from what we've had to deal with recently. Both Sunday and today featured 20+ tornadoes each... With Thursday possibly being another day that could be prolific-- not a given by any means though.

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