Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 1 hour ago, griteater said: One thing that is different between 1983 and 2016 is the extent of warm anomalies in the oceans. I would think this adds a bit of a warm risk overall...but I could be completely wrong. not to spark a string of combativeness ... but that's global warming illustrated.. GW is an observable FACT in both air and sea - and i'm not going into what's causing it, so if someone wants to refute this, you have to come up with a different argument over anthropogenic activities causing the modulation. fact of the matter is, the climate is modulating warmer, period. steadily...over decades - and that is observable in multiple mediums of the environment. i think that basic point sometimes gets lost in the knee-jerk reactionary din of those that are predisposed in an "expecting" game of denial and human-bashing perspective; which unfortunately tends to also divert the significance and response the crisis needs. regardless of cause we cannot sanely deny empirically based logic and try to refute the reality of a warming world. having said all that, yeah ... there's just slim chance that "...Adds a bit of warm risk overall" is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 Jerry...check out the Soviet Union...it's time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 Jerry...check out the Soviet Union...it's time.Lol...en route to nyc with my daughter driving. Will check tonight.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: not to spark a string of combativeness ... but that's global warming illustrated.. GW is an observable FACT in both air and sea - and i'm not going into what's causing it, so if someone wants to refute this, you have to come up with a different argument over anthropogenic activities causing the modulation. fact of the matter is, the climate is modulating warmer, period. steadily...over decades - and that is observable in multiple mediums of the environment. i think that basic point sometimes gets lost in the knee-jerk reactionary din of those that are predisposed in an "expecting" game of denial and human-bashing perspective; which unfortunately tends to also divert the significance and response the crisis needs. regardless of cause we cannot sanely deny empirically based logic and try to refute the reality of a warming world. having said all that, yeah ... there's just slim chance that "...Adds a bit of warm risk overall" is true. Yeah we're def less likely to see "coldest December on record" for the CONUS like we saw in 1983 in the climate of 2016 given the underlying warming trend. Though it should probably be noted when discussing these types of patterns that the anomalies dwarf the backround signal....so you would still get an exceptionally cold month should the 1983 pattern occur again...just maybe instead of -8F over the CONUS, we're talking -7.3F or something. The differences always seem to show up more if you are deciding between like a -0.3F month or a +0.4F month December has actually been not all that "trendy" on the CONUS temps in the past 60 years...until last year really blew us out of the water on the positive side. Kind of funny...it's the ying to 1983's yang...both years stick out like a sore thumb on this graph: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 It's interesting that the cold December's since 1980 have been really cold, vs the warm anomalies just generally warm, but not showing the anomalous values like cold Decembers. At least, until last year. It's almost like when the pattern favors a cold December...it unloads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 9 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Jerry...check out the Soviet Union...it's time. Still too early. Ice should continue to diminish fr the next 2-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 19 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah we're def less likely to see "coldest December on record" for the CONUS like we saw in 1983 in the climate of 2016 given the underlying warming trend. Though it should probably be noted when discussing these types of patterns that the anomalies dwarf the backround signal....so you would still get an exceptionally cold month should the 1983 pattern occur again...just maybe instead of -8F over the CONUS, we're talking -7.3F or something. The differences always seem to show up more if you are deciding between like a -0.3F month or a +0.4F month December has actually been not all that "trendy" on the CONUS temps in the past 60 years...until last year really blew us out of the water on the positive side. Kind of funny...it's the ying to 1983's yang...both years stick out like a sore thumb on this graph: ... yeah, i was just responding more specifically to the poster's question about 'adding heat to the system'... setting up some "global scaled" reasoning (pun intended) for doing so. as far as GW/climate modulating effecting our in situ Decembers ...first, obviously the former does not "effect" on the latter (we know that), but using it to say perhaps x-y-z colder results are less likely... okay. however, I don't think we are just yet over that 'point of no return', where it's too far gone into the warm side to think similar Decs can't happen. you are spot on: the anomalies, particularly when they are sufficiently large, will often part company with the back-ground trend line(s) of the system(s). it's akin to saying, in 1983, you'd need a -4 SD standard deviation month, where in 2016, you may need a -5 to get to the same scalar departure. in reality... considering most of this climate wrangle is really all over decimals anyway, it's probably more like a matter of -4 vs -4.2 or something... point being, the latter can still be achieved here. that's why that ridiculous February took place recently; i bet that sucker would have been equal in 1983 or 2016 because it was so absurdly negative, regardless. as GW progresses over ensuing decades... yeah, at some point probabilities for recurrences will have fallen enough to get presumptuous... by then.. we're also squeezing winter at both ends and experience more lengthy and frequent intra-seasonal thawing, too. who knows at what point along that climatological trend line that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 12 hours ago, weathafella said: Still too early. Ice should continue to diminish fr the next 2-3 weeks. did anyone notice that the 'curve' of that descent is nearly collocating in time with the worst ice loss year ever ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: did anyone notice that the 'curve' of that descent is nearly collocating in time with the worst ice loss year ever ? Do warmer oceans allow more water vapor availability for eastern Siberia snow cover...which has begun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 On August 26, 2016 at 7:21 PM, CoastalWx said: #MakeDecemberGreatAgain This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 If GW is mostly anthropogenic, then there is little doubt (actually no doubt) that the trend will continue. If it is only in small part anthropogenic, then can we assume it will continue at (or greater than) the current rate? Warm/cold multi-decadal fluctuations are common. My point is not to debate the obvious. The warming trend is measurable and beyond any serious contention. Since I have no idea how much of it is AG (5%,25%, 60%, 95%) and doubt anyone else can state how much is human caused with certainty, my question is purely just that. Do we have models that can give us a pretty clear idea that the overwhelming data points to continued, unabated GW? PS It seems certain that some of the warming is human related, so let's not go down that street and get into an argument over it. The question is about certainty. For the sake of argument, let's assume that AG contribution is <50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 17 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Do warmer oceans allow more water vapor availability for eastern Siberia snow cover...which has begun? It is still transient. It's common to get snows in August which then melt there. Patience is the key. Once the low ice point is reached I start my thread...typically mid September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 On 8/28/2016 at 11:03 AM, Typhoon Tip said: ... yeah, i was just responding more specifically to the poster's question about 'adding heat to the system'... setting up some "global scaled" reasoning (pun intended) for doing so. as far as GW/climate modulating effecting our in situ Decembers ...first, obviously the former does not "effect" on the latter (we know that), but using it to say perhaps x-y-z colder results are less likely... okay. however, I don't think we are just yet over that 'point of no return', where it's too far gone into the warm side to think similar Decs can't happen. you are spot on: the anomalies, particularly when they are sufficiently large, will often part company with the back-ground trend line(s) of the system(s). it's akin to saying, in 1983, you'd need a -4 SD standard deviation month, where in 2016, you may need a -5 to get to the same scalar departure. in reality... considering most of this climate wrangle is really all over decimals anyway, it's probably more like a matter of -4 vs -4.2 or something... point being, the latter can still be achieved here. that's why that ridiculous February took place recently; i bet that sucker would have been equal in 1983 or 2016 because it was so absurdly negative, regardless. as GW progresses over ensuing decades... yeah, at some point probabilities for recurrences will have fallen enough to get presumptuous... by then.. we're also squeezing winter at both ends and experience more lengthy and frequent intra-seasonal thawing, too. who knows at what point along that climatological trend line that happens. Not to get too far off into a tangent, but I wanted to see how awesome it looked on the graph. It doesn't disappoint (but Feb 1979 was not totally out of its league) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Holy Tripole! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 About to go all out on this one. Right now thinking way above normal snow with a pretty cold January and February. December is the X factor.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 50 minutes ago, weathafella said: About to go all out on this one. Right now thinking way above normal snow with a pretty cold January and February. December is the X factor. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk ok sounds good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 34 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: ok sounds good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 hour ago, weathafella said: About to go all out on this one. Right now thinking way above normal snow with a pretty cold January and February. December is the X factor. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Sounds about right for BOS...we expect nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 On 8/26/2016 at 6:51 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: December 5th!!! That date over the years has produced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 23 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Sounds about right for BOS...we expect nothing else. Don't worry, you'll pass them by mid March or early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Don't worry, you'll pass them by mid March or early April. lol...honestly though with this current run of snow down there I wouldn't forcast a below normal winter snow without some damn good reasons ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: lol...honestly though with this current run of snow down there I wouldn't forcast a below normal winter snow without some damn good reasons ha. Speaking of BOS, I was just looking at their stretch in 2015 again...and I still am not quite sure how to quantify the rareness of it. It has to be like once in a couple centuries probably when you add everything up for both cold and snow. Think about this....they went from January 20th to March 4th without hitting 40F. That is really hard to do. We're not even talking about ORH here inland at 1,000 feet. We're talking the airport sitting literally in Boston harbor not hitting 40F for over 6 weeks. During that period they also had over 100 inches of snow and 25 days with measurable snowfall. They had an additional 6 days with snowfall but not measurable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Speaking of BOS, I was just looking at their stretch in 2015 again...and I still am not quite sure how to quantify the rareness of it. It has to be like once in a couple centuries probably when you add everything up for both cold and snow. Think about this....they went from January 20th to March 4th without hitting 40F. That is really hard to do. We're not even talking about ORH here inland at 1,000 feet. We're talking the airport sitting literally in Boston harbor not hitting 40F for over 6 weeks. During that period they also had over 100 inches of snow and 25 days with measurable snowfall. They had an additional 6 days with snowfall but not measurable. It truly is something special. That's as rare as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It truly is something special. That's as rare as it gets. BTW they did have below normal snowfall last winter. It probably just didn't seem like it since they weren't as far below normal as most other areas. They finished with 36.1" vs a normal of near 44". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 The state of the SST's across the north-central PAC into the GoA would definitely be something that could provide positive signals should this SST regime hold true into winter. That could help with establishing and maintaining ridging across these parts which of course could be good for transporting cold into the central/eastern US. one very interesting oscillation though will be with regards to the QBO. Been following HM/Sam Lillo on Twitter and both have had some great back-and-forth regarding the anomalous trend of the QBO the past year. The latest phase may only last 15 months or something. With ENSO not appearing very likely to have significant influences on the pattern it will be tough trying to gauge other influences and what is holding precedence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: BTW they did have below normal snowfall last winter. It probably just didn't seem like it since they weren't as far below normal as most other areas. They finished with 36.1" vs a normal of near 44". Yeah that'd be like the equivalent of me getting 104" last winter when it was really like 48" or whatever. Last winter for BOS was better than 2013-14 and similar to 2014-15 up here percentage wise I think. Thinking back to 2015, that was probably the largest waste of sustained cold air on record up here haha. When we mention wasted cold, that year ranks up there without warning snows for 6 weeks of record cold...lol. Funny how different we remember winters even in the same geographical region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 33 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah that'd be like the equivalent of me getting 104" last winter when it was really like 48" or whatever. Last winter for BOS was better than 2013-14 and similar to 2014-15 up here percentage wise I think. Thinking back to 2015, that was probably the largest waste of sustained cold air on record up here haha. When we mention wasted cold, that year ranks up there without warning snows for 6 weeks of record cold...lol. Funny how different we remember winters even in the same geographical region. I'm sure the Boston folks do not remember the 2000-2001 winter so fondly despite slightly above average snow. 30-40 miles west of them in the ORH hills it was near historic. Obviously up there it is remembered fondly as well. Some years there can be a sharp line. I feel like 2014/2015 had a pretty sharp line near the CT River. Once you got into that region the snows diminished significantly to the point where it was just a good winter and nothing historic or all that noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 The anomalies S of Boston are out of control. Even last winter many areas had near or above 40". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The anomalies S of Boston are out of control. Even last winter many areas had near or above 40". Yeah a chunk of SE MA was actually above normal last winter. Amazing for how warm it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah a chunk of SE MA was actually above normal last winter. Amazing for how warm it was. #stealingallthesnowinsema Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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